IT Hardware Stocks

HP Inc Valuation – May 2016 $HPQ

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – March 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how HP Inc (HPQ) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): HP Inc., formerly Hewlett-Packard Company, is a provider of products, technologies, software, solutions and services to individual consumers, small- and medium-sized businesses and large enterprises. The Company operates in seven business segments: Personal Systems, Printing, the Enterprise Group, Enterprise Services, Software, HP Financial Services and Corporate Investments. It offers personal computing and other access devices; imaging and printing related products and services; enterprise information technology (IT) infrastructure, including enterprise server and storage technology, networking products and solutions, technology support and maintenance; multi-vendor customer services, including technology consulting, outsourcing and support services across infrastructure, applications and business process domains, and software products and solution, including application testing and delivery software, big data analytics, information governance and IT Operations Management.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of HPQ – May 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $19,694,568,059 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.90 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -27.12% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 7.15 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 -4.19 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.90 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -4.16 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

HPQ value Chart May 2016

EPSmg $1.61
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $62.01
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $23.35
MG Value based on 0% Growth $13.69
Market Implied Growth Rate -0.67%
Current Price $11.52
% of Intrinsic Value 18.58%

HP Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.12 in 2012 to an estimated $1.61 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.67% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

HP Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

HPQ Charts May 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$8.56
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 7.15
Current Ratio 0.90
PB Ratio -4.19
Current Dividend $0.64
Dividend Yield 5.52%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Useful Links:

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 1/1/2016
Total Current Assets $15,155,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $16,761,000,000
Long-term Debt $6,683,000,000
Total Assets $25,517,000,000
Intangible Assets $5,680,000,000
Total Liabilities $30,426,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,785,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.51
10/1/2015 $2.48
10/1/2014 $2.62
10/1/2013 $2.62
10/1/2012 -$6.41
10/1/2011 $3.32
10/1/2010 $3.69
10/1/2009 $3.14
10/1/2008 $3.25
10/1/2007 $2.68
10/1/2006 $2.18
10/1/2005 $0.82
10/1/2004 $1.15
10/1/2003 $0.83
10/1/2002 -$0.36
10/1/2001 $0.21
10/1/2000 $1.80
10/1/1999 $1.67
10/1/1998 $1.39
10/1/1997 $1.48
10/1/1996 $1.23

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.61
10/1/2015 $1.42
10/1/2014 $0.98
10/1/2013 $0.53
10/1/2012 $0.12
10/1/2011 $3.33
10/1/2010 $3.22
10/1/2009 $2.79
10/1/2008 $2.42
10/1/2007 $1.85
10/1/2006 $1.26
10/1/2005 $0.71
10/1/2004 $0.68
10/1/2003 $0.57
10/1/2002 $0.61
10/1/2001 $1.17
10/1/2000 $1.60

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

58 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/31/15
Hewlett-Packard Corporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $HPQ
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/18/14
Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) Annual Valuation

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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NetApp Inc Valuation – March 2016 $NTAP
Applied Materials Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AMAT
Skyworks Solutions Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $SWKS
Analog Devices Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $ADI
Garmin Ltd Stock Valuation – February 2016 $GRMN
Emerson Electric Co Valuation – February 2016 $EMR
Applied Materials Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AMAT
Skyworks Solutions Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $SWKS
Analog Devices Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $ADI

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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