Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how CMS Energy Corp (CMS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): CMS Energy Corporation (CMS Energy) is an energy company operating primarily in Michigan. The Company operates in three segments, which include Consumers Electric Utility, Consumers Gas Utility and Enterprises (non-utility operations and investments). CMS Energy, through its subsidiaries and equity investments, is engaged primarily in independent power production and owns power generation facilities fueled by natural gas and biomass. The Consumers Electric Utility operations include the generation, purchase, distribution and sale of electricity. The Consumers Gas Utility operations include the purchase, transmission, storage, distribution and sale of natural gas. The enterprises segment, through subsidiaries and equity investments, is engaged in domestic independent power production and the marketing of independent power production. The Company’s other business includes EnerBank USA, which is engaged in providing unsecured consumer installment loans for financing home improvements.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$12,638,478,642||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||0.92||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||382.41%||Pass|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||25.22||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||3.00||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||0.92||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||-52.76||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||4.49%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$25.51|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$14.95|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||8.36%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||144.33%|
CMS Energy Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.35 in 2012 to an estimated $1.76 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.36% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
CMS Energy Corporation scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$50.51|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||10|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||3/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$1,890,000,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$2,047,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||277,900,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.77|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.76|
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.