Banks Stocks

Wells Fargo & Co Valuation – June 2016 $WFC

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Wells Fargo & Company is a bank holding company. The Company is a financial services company, which offers banking, insurance, trust and investments, mortgage banking, investment banking, retail banking, brokerage, and consumer and commercial finance. It has three operating segments: Community Banking, Wholesale Banking, and Wealth and Investment Management. Its Community Banking segment offers financial products and services for consumers and small businesses, including checking and savings accounts, credit and debit cards, and auto, student and small business lending. Its Wholesale Banking segment provides financial solutions to businesses across the United States and globally. Its Wealth and Investment Management segment provides a range of personalized wealth management, investment, and retirement products and services to clients across the United States-based businesses. It operates through over 8,700 locations and approximately 13,000 automated teller machines.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of WFC – June 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $221,415,190,276 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 149.28% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 11.62 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.19 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

WFC value Chart June 2016

EPSmg $3.93
MG Growth Estimate 7.75%
MG Value $94.45
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $57.05
MG Value based on 0% Growth $33.44
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.56%
Current Price $45.71
% of Intrinsic Value 48.40%

Wells Fargo & Co qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.59 in 2012 to an estimated $3.93 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.56% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Wells Fargo & Co performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

WFC Charts June 2016

Graham Number $54.19
PEmg 11.62
PB Ratio 1.19
Dividend Yield 3.28%
TTM Dividend $1.50
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

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Useful Links:

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Long-Term Debt $227,888,000,000
Total Assets $1,849,182,000,000
Intangible Assets $39,695,000,000
Total Liabilities $1,651,686,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 5,139,400,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.82
Dec2015 $4.12
Dec2014 $4.10
Dec2013 $3.89
Dec2012 $3.36
Dec2011 $2.82
Dec2010 $2.21
Dec2009 $1.75
Dec2008 $0.70
Dec2007 $2.38
Dec2006 $2.49
Dec2005 $2.25
Dec2004 $2.05
Dec2003 $1.83
Dec2002 $1.58
Dec2001 $0.99
Dec2000 $1.17
Dec1999 $1.12
Dec1998 $0.59
Dec1997 $0.88
Dec1996 $0.77

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.93
Dec2015 $3.88
Dec2014 $3.60
Dec2013 $3.17
Dec2012 $2.59
Dec2011 $2.13
Dec2010 $1.83
Dec2009 $1.73
Dec2008 $1.80
Dec2007 $2.30
Dec2006 $2.19
Dec2005 $1.94
Dec2004 $1.69
Dec2003 $1.46
Dec2002 $1.21
Dec2001 $1.00
Dec2000 $0.97

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – May 2016
13 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 12/12/15
Wells Fargo & Co Valuation – December 2015 Update $WFC
The Best Companies of the Banking Industry – October 2015
10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – September 2015

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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