Banks Stocks

Zions Bancorp Valuation – June 2016 $ZION

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Zions Bancorp (ZION) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Zions Bancorporation is a financial holding company. The Company operates through seven segments: Zions Bank, Amegy Bank, California Bank & Trust, National Bank of Arizona, Nevada State Bank, Vectra Bank Colorado and The Commerce Bank of Washington. It focuses on providing community banking services and its core business lines are small and medium-sized business and corporate banking; commercial and residential development, construction and term lending; retail banking; treasury cash management and related products and services; residential mortgage servicing and lending; trust and wealth management; limited capital markets activities, including municipal finance advisory and underwriting, and investment activities. It also provides personal banking services, including home mortgages, bankcard, other installment loans, home equity lines of credit, checking accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposit, safe deposit facilities, direct deposit, and Internet and mobile banking.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ZION – June 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $4,335,104,841 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -154.83% Fail
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.11 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.63 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

ZION value chart June 2016

EPSmg $1.46
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $56.39
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $21.24
MG Value based on 0% Growth $12.45
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.80%
Current Price $23.59
% of Intrinsic Value 41.83%

Zions Bancorp is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-1.45 in 2012 to an estimated $1.46 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.8% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Zions Bancorp receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

ZION charts June 2016

Graham Number $34.59
PEmg 16.11
PB Ratio 0.63
Dividend Yield 1.02%
TTM Dividend $0.24
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Long-Term Debt $802,448,000
Total Assets $59,179,913,000
Intangible Assets $1,028,388,000
Total Liabilities $51,554,176,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 204,096,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.60
Dec2015 $1.20
Dec2014 $1.68
Dec2013 $1.58
Dec2012 $0.97
Dec2011 $0.83
Dec2010 -$2.48
Dec2009 -$9.92
Dec2008 -$2.67
Dec2007 $4.42
Dec2006 $5.36
Dec2005 $5.16
Dec2004 $4.47
Dec2003 $3.72
Dec2002 $2.78
Dec2001 $3.07
Dec2000 $1.86
Dec1999 $2.26
Dec1998 $1.91
Dec1997 $1.89
Dec1996 $1.71

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.46
Dec2015 $1.35
Dec2014 $1.12
Dec2013 -$0.04
Dec2012 -$1.45
Dec2011 -$2.43
Dec2010 -$3.06
Dec2009 -$2.08
Dec2008 $2.35
Dec2007 $4.78
Dec2006 $4.74
Dec2005 $4.23
Dec2004 $3.57
Dec2003 $2.99
Dec2002 $2.55
Dec2001 $2.35
Dec2000 $1.97

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

40 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/21/15
Zions Bancorporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $ZION
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/15/14
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) Annual Valuation

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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