IT Hardware Stocks

Arrow Electronics Inc Valuation – July 2016 $ARW

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Arrow Electronics, Inc. is a provider of products, services and solutions to industrial and commercial users of electronic components and enterprise computing solutions. The Company has a portfolio of product offerings available from electronic components and enterprise computing solutions suppliers, coupled with a range of services, solutions and tools for industrial and commercial customers. The Company operates in two segments: Global Components and Global Enterprise Computing Solutions. The Company distributes electronic components to original equipment manufacturers and contract manufacturers through its Global Components segment and provides enterprise computing solutions to value-added resellers (VARs) through its Global Enterprise Computing Solutions segment. The Company’s Global Enterprise Computing Solutions segment’s portfolio of computing solutions includes datacenter, cloud, security and analytics solutions.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ARW – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $5,802,678,814 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.71 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -2224.68% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 11.76 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.33 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.71 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.76 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

ARW value chart July 2016

EPSmg $5.26
MG Growth Estimate 7.55%
MG Value $124.11
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $76.27
MG Value based on 0% Growth $44.71
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.63%
Current Price $61.86
% of Intrinsic Value 49.84%

Arrow Electronics, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.5 in 2012 to an estimated $5.26 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.63% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Arrow Electronics, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

ARW charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $4.25
Graham Number $81.27
PEmg 11.76
Current Ratio 1.71
PB Ratio 1.33
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $8,427,570,000
Total Current Liabilities $4,920,803,000
Long-Term Debt $2,649,042,000
Total Assets $12,352,787,000
Intangible Assets $383,503,000
Total Liabilities $8,033,407,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 92,787,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.18
Dec2015 $5.20
Dec2014 $4.98
Dec2013 $3.85
Dec2012 $4.56
Dec2011 $5.17
Dec2010 $4.01
Dec2009 $1.03
Dec2008 -$5.08
Dec2007 $3.28
Dec2006 $3.16
Dec2005 $2.09
Dec2004 $1.75
Dec2003 $0.25
Dec2002 -$6.12
Dec2001 -$0.75
Dec2000 $3.62
Dec1999 $1.29
Dec1998 $1.50
Dec1997 $1.64
Dec1996 $1.98

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.26
Dec2015 $4.78
Dec2014 $4.56
Dec2013 $4.14
Dec2012 $3.50
Dec2011 $2.54
Dec2010 $1.24
Dec2009 $0.21
Dec2008 $0.21
Dec2007 $2.60
Dec2006 $1.59
Dec2005 $0.35
Dec2004 -$0.43
Dec2003 -$1.13
Dec2002 -$1.24
Dec2001 $1.28
Dec2000 $2.20

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

13 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 12/12/15
Arrow Electronics Inc Valuation – December 2015 Update $ARW
10 Low PE Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – November 2015
The Best Stocks of the IT Hardware Industry – September 2015
19 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 8/29/15

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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