Auto Stocks

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co Valuation – July 2016 $GT

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co (GT) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company is engaged in developing, manufacturing, marketing and distributing tires for various applications. It also manufactures and markets rubber-related chemicals for various applications. The Company’s Americas business comprises businesses of North America and Latin America. The North America business develops, manufactures, distributes and sells tires and related products and services in the United States and Canada. The Latin America business manufactures and sells automobile and truck tires throughout Central South America and in Mexico. The Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) segment develops, manufactures, distributes and sells tires for automobiles, trucks, buses, aircraft, motorcycles, earthmoving and mining equipment, and industrial equipment across the Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The Asia Pacific segment manufactures and sells tires for automobiles, trucks, aircraft, farm, earthmoving and mining equipment in the Asia Pacific region.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of GT – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $6,986,128,213 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.39 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 1651.28% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 7.07 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.71 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.39 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 3.20 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

GT value chart July 2016

EPSmg $3.66
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $140.96
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $53.09
MG Value based on 0% Growth $31.12
Market Implied Growth Rate -0.71%
Current Price $25.90
% of Intrinsic Value 18.37%

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.18 in 2012 to an estimated $3.66 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.71% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

GT charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$23.24
Graham Number $36.13
PEmg 7.07
Current Ratio 1.39
PB Ratio 1.71
Current Dividend $0.26
Dividend Yield 1.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $6,375,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $4,601,000,000
Long-Term Debt $5,685,000,000
Total Assets $16,777,000,000
Intangible Assets $712,000,000
Total Liabilities $12,673,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 271,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.76
Dec2015 $1.12
Dec2014 $8.78
Dec2013 $2.28
Dec2012 $0.74
Dec2011 $1.26
Dec2010 -$0.89
Dec2009 -$1.55
Dec2008 -$0.32
Dec2007 $2.65
Dec2006 -$1.86
Dec2005 $1.16
Dec2004 $0.63
Dec2003 -$4.58
Dec2002 -$6.62
Dec2001 -$1.27
Dec2000 $0.25
Dec1999 $1.52
Dec1998 $4.31
Dec1997 $3.53
Dec1996 $0.66

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.66
Dec2015 $3.35
Dec2014 $3.79
Dec2013 $0.99
Dec2012 $0.18
Dec2011 $0.01
Dec2010 -$0.54
Dec2009 -$0.24
Dec2008 $0.42
Dec2007 $0.40
Dec2006 -$1.24
Dec2005 -$1.33
Dec2004 -$2.49
Dec2003 -$3.41
Dec2002 -$2.01
Dec2001 $0.76
Dec2000 $1.87

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

34 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/7/15
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company Annual Valuation – 2015 $GT
15 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/1/14
The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT) Annual Valuation

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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