Media Entertainment Stocks

Time Warner Inc Valuation – July 2016 $TWX

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Time Warner Inc (TWX) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Time Warner Inc. is a media and entertainment company. The Company operates through three segments: Turner, which consists of cable networks and digital media properties; Home Box Office, which consists of domestic premium pay television and streaming services, and international premium pay, basic tier television services and streaming services, and Warner Bros., which consists of television, feature film, home video and videogame production and distribution. The Company also holds interests in companies that operate broadcast networks. The Company holds interest in Central European Media Enterprises Ltd. (CME), which is a broadcasting company that operates television networks in Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Romania, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia. The Company has a joint venture interest in The CW, which includes a lineup of advertising-supported original programming, as well as a block of advertising-supported programming.

[level-free]

To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[not-level-free]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TWX – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $59,048,821,831 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.64 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -352.84% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.17 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.50 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.64 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 5.14 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

TWX value chart July 2016

EPSmg $4.60
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $176.92
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $66.63
MG Value based on 0% Growth $39.06
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.84%
Current Price $74.31
% of Intrinsic Value 42.00%

Time Warner Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.73 in 2012 to an estimated $4.6 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.84% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Time Warner Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

TWX charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$34.42
Graham Number $60.03
PEmg 16.17
Current Ratio 1.64
PB Ratio 2.50
Current Dividend $1.45
Dividend Yield 1.96%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $11,792,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $7,194,000,000
Long-Term Debt $23,622,000,000
Total Assets $63,254,000,000
Intangible Assets $35,616,000,000
Total Liabilities $39,411,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 802,300,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.30
Dec2015 $4.62
Dec2014 $4.34
Dec2013 $3.92
Dec2012 $3.09
Dec2011 $2.71
Dec2010 $2.25
Dec2009 $2.07
Dec2008 -$11.22
Dec2007 $3.51
Dec2006 $4.65
Dec2005 $1.86
Dec2004 $2.16
Dec2003 $1.71
Dec2002 -$66.45
Dec2001 -$3.33
Jun2000 $1.44
Jun1999 $0.90
Jun1998 $0.15
Jun1997 -$0.99
Jun1996 $0.06

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.60
Dec2015 $4.07
Dec2014 $3.62
Dec2013 $3.11
Dec2012 $1.73
Dec2011 $0.66
Dec2010 -$0.16
Dec2009 -$0.86
Dec2008 -$1.48
Dec2007 $3.18
Dec2006 -$1.72
Dec2005 -$7.54
Dec2004 -$12.46
Dec2003 -$17.56
Dec2002 -$22.62
Dec2001 -$0.59
Jun2000 $0.62

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

34 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/7/15
Time Warner Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $TWX
28 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/1/14
Time Warner Inc. Quarterly Valuation – October 2014 $TWX
19 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 7/26/14

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Comcast Corporation Valuation – June 2016 $CMCSA
Viacom Inc Valuation – June 2016 $VIAB
CBS Corporation Valuation – May 2016 $CBS
Graham Holdings Company Valuation – May 2016 $GHC
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $FOXA
Scripps Networks Interactive Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $SNI
Walt Disney Co Valuation – December 2015 Update $DIS
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $FOXA
Scripps Networks Interactive Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $SNI
Walt Disney Co Valuation – December 2015 Update $DIS

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Back To Top