Retail Stocks

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc Valuation – July 2016 $WBA

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (Walgreens Boots Alliance) is a holding company. The Company is a global pharmacy-led health and wellbeing enterprise. It operates through three segments: Retail Pharmacy USA, which consists of the Walgreens business, including the operation of retail drugstores and convenient care clinics, in addition to providing specialty pharmacy services; Retail Pharmacy International, which consists of the Alliance Boots pharmacy-led health and beauty stores, optical practices and related contract manufacturing operations, and Pharmaceutical Wholesale, which consists of the Alliance Boots pharmaceutical wholesaling and distribution businesses. Its portfolio of retail and business brands includes Walgreens, Duane Reade, Boots and Alliance Healthcare, as well as global health and beauty product brands, including No7, Botanics, and Soap & Glory. Walgreens Boots Alliance, through its subsidiary, Liz Earle Beauty Co. Ltd, offers the Liz Earle skincare brand.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of WBA – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $88,581,928,438 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.25 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 59.32% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.92 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.01 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.25 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 3.16 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

WBA value chart July 2016

EPSmg $3.27
MG Growth Estimate 5.21%
MG Value $61.94
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $47.45
MG Value based on 0% Growth $27.82
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.21%
Current Price $81.55
% of Intrinsic Value 131.67%

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.43 in 2012 to an estimated $3.27 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.21% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

WBA charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.16
Graham Number $49.03
PEmg 24.92
Current Ratio 1.25
PB Ratio 3.01
Current Dividend $1.42
Dividend Yield 1.74%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 2/1/2016
Total Current Assets $20,378,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $16,272,000,000
Long-Term Debt $12,974,000,000
Total Assets $66,385,000,000
Intangible Assets $26,918,000,000
Total Liabilities $36,879,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,088,400,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.91
Aug2015 $4.00
Aug2014 $2.00
Aug2013 $2.56
Aug2012 $2.42
Aug2011 $2.94
Aug2010 $2.12
Aug2009 $2.02
Aug2008 $2.17
Aug2007 $2.03
Aug2006 $1.72
Aug2005 $1.52
Aug2004 $1.32
Aug2003 $1.14
Aug2002 $0.99
Aug2001 $0.86
Aug2000 $0.76
Aug1999 $0.62
Aug1998 $0.51
Aug1997 $0.44
Aug1996 $0.38

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.27
Aug2015 $2.90
Aug2014 $2.37
Aug2013 $2.50
Aug2012 $2.43
Aug2011 $2.37
Aug2010 $2.06
Aug2009 $1.99
Aug2008 $1.90
Aug2007 $1.69
Aug2006 $1.46
Aug2005 $1.28
Aug2004 $1.11
Aug2003 $0.96
Aug2002 $0.83
Aug2001 $0.71
Aug2000 $0.60

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

47 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/16/15
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $WBA
40 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/21/15
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $WBA

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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