Oil & Gas Stocks

ONEOK Inc Valuation – July 2016 $OKE

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how ONEOK Inc (OKE) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): ONEOK, Inc. is the sole general partner of ONEOK Partners, L.P. (ONEOK Partners), a master limited partnership engaged in the gathering, processing, storage and transportation of natural gas in the United States. The Company operates through three business segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing, Natural Gas Liquids and Natural Gas Pipelines. The Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment provides non-discretionary services to producers that include gathering and processing of natural gas produced from crude oil and natural gas wells. The Natural Gas Liquids segment owns and operates facilities that gather, fractionate, treat and distribute natural gas liquids (NGLs), and store NGL products, primarily in Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, New Mexico and the Rocky Mountain region. The Natural Gas Pipelines segment owns and operates regulated natural gas transmission pipelines and natural gas storage facilities.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of OKE – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $10,211,492,028 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.56 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -8.01% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 36.55 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 35.70 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.56 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -10.76 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

OKE value chart July 2016

EPSmg $1.33
MG Growth Estimate -2.69%
MG Value $4.14
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $19.25
MG Value based on 0% Growth $11.28
Market Implied Growth Rate 14.03%
Current Price $48.52
% of Intrinsic Value 1173.23%

ONEOK, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.62 in 2012 to an estimated $1.33 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 14.03% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

ONEOK, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

OKE charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$67.39
Graham Number $6.34
PEmg 36.55
Current Ratio 0.56
PB Ratio 35.70
Current Dividend $2.44
Dividend Yield 5.03%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 14

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $991,021,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,764,460,000
Long-Term Debt $8,320,451,000
Total Assets $15,501,149,000
Intangible Assets $1,014,284,000
Total Liabilities $15,214,261,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 211,071,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.31
Dec2015 $1.16
Dec2014 $1.49
Dec2013 $1.27
Dec2012 $1.71
Dec2011 $1.68
Dec2010 $1.55
Dec2009 $1.44
Dec2008 $1.48
Dec2007 $1.40
Dec2006 $1.34
Dec2005 $2.53
Dec2004 $1.15
Dec2003 $0.61
Dec2002 $0.70
Dec2001 $0.43
Dec2000 $0.74
Aug1999 $0.52
Aug1998 $0.56
Aug1997 $0.53
Aug1996 $0.48

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.33
Dec2015 $1.38
Dec2014 $1.50
Dec2013 $1.52
Dec2012 $1.62
Dec2011 $1.55
Dec2010 $1.47
Dec2009 $1.50
Dec2008 $1.55
Dec2007 $1.52
Dec2006 $1.48
Dec2005 $1.39
Dec2004 $0.79
Dec2003 $0.61
Dec2002 $0.60
Dec2001 $0.55
Dec2000 $0.60

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – March 2015
28 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/28/15
OneOK Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $OKE
16 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/1/14
OneOK Inc. (OKE) Annual Valuation

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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