Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how E*Trade Financial Corp (ETFC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): E*Trade Financial Corporation is a financial services company. The Company provides brokerage and related products and services primarily to individual retail investors under the brand E*TRADE Financial. The Company also provides investor-focused banking products, primarily sweep deposits, to retail investors. The Company operates in two segments: trading and investing, and balance sheet management. Its trading and investing segment offers a suite of financial products and services to individual retail investors. Its balance sheet management segment focuses on asset allocation and managing credit, liquidity and interest rate risks. Its hybrid service delivery model is delivered through various digital platforms: E*TRADE.com, E*TRADE Mobile and E*TRADE Pro. E*TRADE.com is its site that provides customers with tools, guidance, actionable ideas, research and education to take control of their finances. E*TRADE Mobile offers trading applications for various smartphones and tablets.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$6,954,309,365||Pass|
|2. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|3. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-106.16%||Fail|
|5. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||25.79||Fail|
|6. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||1.24||Pass|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Fail|
|2. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Fail|
|3. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||15.00%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$14.00|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$8.21|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||8.65%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||67.00%|
E*TRADE Financial Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-2.25 in 2012 to an estimated $0.97 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 8.65% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
E*TRADE Financial Corp scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||3/1/2016|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||286,680,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.53|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$0.97|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
|58 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/31/15|
|E*Trade Financial Corporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $ETFC|
|14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/18/14|
|ModernGraham Valuation: E*Trade Financial Corporation (ETFC)|
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.