Medical Stocks

Tenet Healthcare Corp Valuation – July 2016 $THC

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Tenet Healthcare Corp (THC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Tenet Healthcare Corporation (Tenet) is a healthcare services company. The Company operates regionally focused, integrated healthcare delivery networks in large urban and suburban markets in the United States. The Company operates through three segments: Hospital Operations and other, Ambulatory Care and Conifer. With its networks, including acute care and specialty hospitals, which are engaged in providing outpatient facilities and related businesses, the Company provides a range of healthcare services in the communities it serve. It operates approximately 90 hospitals, 20 short-stay surgical hospitals, 475 outpatient centers, nine facilities in the United Kingdom and six health plans through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures. In addition, its Conifer Holdings, Inc. (Conifer) subsidiary provide healthcare business process services in the areas of revenue cycle management and technology-enabled performance improvement and health management solutions to health systems.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of THC – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,961,259,250 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.20 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -66.30% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 324.35 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.72 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.20 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 16.67 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

THC value chart July 2016

EPSmg $0.09
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $1.33
MG Value based on 0% Growth $0.78
Market Implied Growth Rate 157.92%
Current Price $29.84
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Tenet Healthcare Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.4 in 2012 to an estimated $0.09 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 157.92% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Tenet Healthcare Corp scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

THC charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$182.37
Graham Number $15.06
PEmg 324.35
Current Ratio 1.20
PB Ratio 4.72
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $5,129,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $4,268,000,000
Long-Term Debt $14,350,000,000
Total Assets $23,766,000,000
Intangible Assets $8,808,000,000
Total Liabilities $23,141,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 98,768,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.60
Dec2015 -$1.41
Dec2014 $0.12
Dec2013 -$1.32
Dec2012 $1.30
Dec2011 $0.48
Dec2010 $8.16
Dec2009 $1.48
Dec2008 $0.20
Dec2007 -$0.76
Dec2006 $0.56
Dec2005 -$0.76
Dec2004 -$22.64
Dec2003 -$12.68
May2002 $6.24
May2001 $5.25
May2000 $2.56
May1999 $2.11
May1998 $2.24
May1997 -$2.24
May1996 $4.35

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.09
Dec2015 -$0.50
Dec2014 $0.56
Dec2013 $1.19
Dec2012 $2.40
Dec2011 $2.61
Dec2010 $3.09
Dec2009 $0.42
Dec2008 -$1.63
Dec2007 -$4.12
Dec2006 -$5.82
Dec2005 -$7.64
Dec2004 -$8.81
Dec2003 -$1.03
May2002 $4.42
May2001 $3.00
May2000 $1.85

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/23/15
Tenet Healthcare Corporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $THC
16 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/24/14
Tenet Healthcare Corp 2014 Annual Valuation $THC

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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