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AT&T Inc Valuation – July 2016 $T

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how AT&T (T) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): AT&T Inc. is a holding company. The Company offers communications and digital entertainment services in the United States and the world. It operates through four segments: Business Solutions, Entertainment Group, Consumer Mobility and International. The Business Solutions segment includes various categories, including wireless service, fixed strategic services, legacy voice and data services, other services and wireless equipment. The Entertainment Group segment provides video, Internet and voice communication services to residential customers in the United States and the United States territories. The Consumer Mobility segment provides wireless service to consumers, and wireless wholesale and resale subscribers located in the United States or in the United States territories. The International segment provides video entertainment services to residential customers in Latin America, and wireless data and voice communication services to consumer and business customers in Mexico.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of T – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $263,066,316,377 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.85 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 1.77% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 18.37 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.14 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.85 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -18.71 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

T value chart July 2016

EPSmg $2.33
MG Growth Estimate 5.68%
MG Value $46.23
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $33.77
MG Value based on 0% Growth $19.79
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.93%
Current Price $42.77
% of Intrinsic Value 92.51%

AT&T Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.69 in 2012 to an estimated $2.33 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.93% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

AT&T Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

T charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$39.13
Graham Number $35.35
PEmg 18.37
Current Ratio 0.85
PB Ratio 2.14
Current Dividend $1.90
Dividend Yield 4.44%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 13

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $38,001,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $44,528,000,000
Long-Term Debt $122,104,000,000
Total Assets $403,638,000,000
Intangible Assets $225,086,000,000
Total Liabilities $280,206,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 6,190,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.77
Dec2015 $2.37
Dec2014 $1.19
Dec2013 $3.39
Dec2012 $1.25
Dec2011 $0.66
Dec2010 $3.35
Dec2009 $2.12
Dec2008 $2.16
Dec2007 $1.94
Dec2006 $1.89
Dec2005 $1.42
Dec2004 $1.77
Dec2003 $2.56
Dec2002 $1.69
Dec2001 $2.13
Dec2000 $2.32
Dec1999 $2.36
Dec1998 $2.03
Dec1997 $0.80
Dec1996 $1.73

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.33
Dec2015 $2.00
Dec2014 $1.86
Dec2013 $2.18
Dec2012 $1.69
Dec2011 $1.95
Dec2010 $2.50
Dec2009 $2.02
Dec2008 $1.92
Dec2007 $1.84
Dec2006 $1.82
Dec2005 $1.82
Dec2004 $2.05
Dec2003 $2.20
Dec2002 $2.05
Dec2001 $2.12
Dec2000 $2.03

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – February 2015
40 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/21/15
5 Most Overvalued Dow Components – February 2015
AT&T Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $T
5 Most Overvalued Dow Components – January 2015

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Windstream Holdings Analysis – 2015 Update $WIN
Harris Corporation Analysis – June 2015 Update $HRS
Harris Corporation Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $HRS
Verizon Communications Annual Valuation – 2015 $VZ

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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