Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Citigroup Inc (C) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Citigroup Inc. (Citi) is a financial services holding company. The Company’s businesses provide consumers, corporations, governments and institutions with a range of financial products and services, including consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, securities brokerage, trade and securities services and wealth management. It operates through two segments: Citicorp and Citi Holdings. Citicorp is focused on providing products and services to customers and leveraging the Company’s global network, including various economies. Global Consumer Banking (GCB) consists of Citi’s geographical consumer banking businesses that provide traditional banking services to retail customers through retail banking, including commercial banking, and Citi-branded cards and Citi retail services. Citi Holdings contains businesses and portfolios of assets that Citi has determined are not central to its core Citicorp businesses.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$130,868,811,894||Pass|
|2. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|3. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-121.23%||Fail|
|5. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||10.81||Pass|
|6. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||0.56||Pass|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|2. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|3. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||15.00%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$59.49|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$34.87|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||1.16%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||28.08%|
Citigroup Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-2.31 in 2012 to an estimated $4.1 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.16% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
Citigroup Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||2|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||6/1/2016|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||2,915,900,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$4.44|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$4.10|
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.