Retail Stocks

Macy’s Inc Valuation – July 2016 $M

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Macy’s Inc (M) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Macy’s, Inc. is an omnichannel retail company operating stores, Websites and mobile applications under various brands, such as Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury. The Company sells a range of merchandise, including apparel and accessories (men’s, women’s and children’s), cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods. Its subsidiaries provide various support functions to its retail operations. The Company’s bank subsidiary, FDS Bank, provides credit processing, certain collections, customer service and credit marketing services in respect of various credit card accounts that are owned either by Department Stores National Bank (DSNB), a subsidiary of Citibank N.A. or FDS Bank and that constitutes a part of the credit programs of the Company’s retail operations. Macy’s Systems and Technology, Inc. (MST), a subsidiary of the Company, provides operational electronic data processing and management information services to all of the Company’s operations.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of M – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $10,930,487,811 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.38 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -223.14% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 10.01 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.86 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.38 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 3.44 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

M value chart July 2016

EPSmg $3.48
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $134.11
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $50.51
MG Value based on 0% Growth $29.61
Market Implied Growth Rate 0.76%
Current Price $34.87
% of Intrinsic Value 26.00%

Macy’s, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.61 in 2013 to an estimated $3.48 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.76% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Macy’s, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

M charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$25.34
Graham Number $30.88
PEmg 10.01
Current Ratio 1.38
PB Ratio 2.86
Current Dividend $1.44
Dividend Yield 4.13%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 4/1/2016
Total Current Assets $7,417,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $5,384,000,000
Long-Term Debt $6,990,000,000
Total Assets $20,198,000,000
Intangible Assets $4,408,000,000
Total Liabilities $16,050,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 340,700,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.15
Jan2016 $3.22
Jan2015 $4.22
Jan2014 $3.86
Jan2013 $3.24
Jan2012 $2.92
Jan2011 $1.98
Jan2010 $0.83
Jan2009 -$11.40
Jan2008 $1.97
Jan2007 $1.81
Jan2006 $3.24
Jan2005 $1.93
Jan2004 $1.86
Jan2003 $2.06
Jan2002 -$0.71
Jan2001 -$0.45
Jan2000 $1.81
Jan1999 $1.48
Jan1998 $1.21
Jan1997 $0.62

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.48
Jan2016 $3.60
Jan2015 $3.61
Jan2014 $3.05
Jan2013 $1.61
Jan2012 $0.28
Jan2011 -$1.02
Jan2010 -$1.91
Jan2009 -$2.35
Jan2008 $2.17
Jan2007 $2.24
Jan2006 $2.19
Jan2005 $1.43
Jan2004 $1.09
Jan2003 $0.75
Jan2002 $0.28
Jan2001 $0.83

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/14/15
Macy’s Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $M
15 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/8/14
Macy’s, Inc. (M) Annual Valuation

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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