Retail Stocks

Urban Outfitters Inc Valuation – July 2016 $URBN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Urban Outfitters Inc (URBN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Urban Outfitters, Inc. (Urban Outfitters) is a lifestyle retail company. The Company operates through two business segments: Retail and Wholesale. The Retail segment consists of the Company’s Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie Group, Free People and Terrain brands, whose merchandise is sold directly to the Company’s customers through retail stores, Websites, mobile applications, catalogs and customer contact centers. The Urban Outfitters targets young adults aged 18 to 28. The Anthropologie Group consists of the Anthropologie and Bhldn brands. Free People retail stores offer private label branded merchandise targeted to young contemporary women aged 25 to 30. Terrain brand is designed for women and men interested in a creative, outdoor living and gardening. The Wholesale segment consists of the Free People wholesale division that primarily designs, develops and markets young women’s contemporary casual apparel.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of URBN – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $3,473,168,030 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.36 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 54.87% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.53 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.93 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.36 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.16 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

URBN value chart July 2016

EPSmg $1.77
MG Growth Estimate 3.59%
MG Value $27.71
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $25.63
MG Value based on 0% Growth $15.02
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.01%
Current Price $29.21
% of Intrinsic Value 105.40%

Urban Outfitters, Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.43 in 2013 to an estimated $1.77 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.01% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

Urban Outfitters, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

URBN charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $1.43
Graham Number $20.09
PEmg 16.53
Current Ratio 2.36
PB Ratio 2.93
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Useful Links:

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 4/1/2016
Total Current Assets $809,531,000
Total Current Liabilities $342,361,000
Long-Term Debt $75,000,000
Total Assets $1,814,894,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $640,841,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 117,587,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.79
Jan2016 $1.78
Jan2015 $1.68
Jan2014 $1.89
Jan2013 $1.62
Jan2012 $1.19
Jan2011 $1.60
Jan2010 $1.28
Jan2009 $1.17
Jan2008 $0.94
Jan2007 $0.69
Jan2006 $0.77
Jan2005 $0.54
Jan2004 $0.30
Jan2003 $0.18
Jan2002 $0.11
Jan2001 $0.08
Jan2000 $0.13
Jan1999 $0.11
Jan1998 $0.10
Jan1997 $0.09

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.77
Jan2016 $1.71
Jan2015 $1.65
Jan2014 $1.60
Jan2013 $1.43
Jan2012 $1.30
Jan2011 $1.28
Jan2010 $1.07
Jan2009 $0.92
Jan2008 $0.74
Jan2007 $0.60
Jan2006 $0.49
Jan2005 $0.31
Jan2004 $0.19
Jan2003 $0.13
Jan2002 $0.10
Jan2001 $0.10

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

19 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 1/9/16
Urban Outfitters Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $URBN
13 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 10/3/15
Urban Outfitters Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $URBN
The Best Companies of the Retail Industry – August 2015

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Nordstrom Inc Valuation – May 2016 $JWN
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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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