Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – July 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Host Hotels and Resorts Inc (HST) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (Host Inc.) operates as a self-managed and self-administered real estate investment trust. The Company operates through hotel ownership segment. The Company owns properties and conducts operations through Host Hotels & Resorts, L.P., in which the Company holds approximately 99% of the partnership interests (OP units). Its portfolio consists of luxury and upper upscale properties located in the central business districts of cities and near resort/conference destinations. In addition to its consolidated hotel portfolio, the Company also owns non-controlling interests in several entities and owned interest in approximately 20 hotel properties. The Company’s lodging portfolio consists of over 100 luxury and upper-upscale hotels containing approximately 57,000 rooms, with the majority located in the United States and with approximately 20 of the properties located outside of the United States, in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Mexico and New Zealand.
Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$13,690,174,761||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||1.15||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||109.40%||Pass|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||17.96||Pass|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||1.91||Pass|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||1.15||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||123.78||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||15.00%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$14.46|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$8.48|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||4.73%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||46.64%|
Host Hotels and Resorts Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.03 in 2012 to an estimated $1 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.73% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
Host Hotels and Resorts Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$5.90|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||7|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||3/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$249,000,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$217,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||749,700,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.64|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.00|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
|23 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/9/15|
|Host Hotels and Resorts Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $HST|
|16 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/8/14|
|Host Hotels and Resorts (HST) Annual Valuation|
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.