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Microchip Technology Inc Valuation – July 2016 $MCHP

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Microchip Technology Incorporated is engaged in developing, manufacturing and selling specialized semiconductor products used by its customers for a range of embedded control applications. The Company operates through two segments: semiconductor products and technology licensing. In the semiconductor products segment, the Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets microcontrollers, development tools and analog, interface, mixed signal and timing products. Its functional activities include sales, marketing, manufacturing, information technology, human resources, legal and finance. Its product portfolio comprises general purpose and specialized 8-bit, 16-bit, and 32-bit microcontrollers, a spectrum of linear, mixed-signal, power management, thermal management, radio frequency (RF), timing, safety, security, wired connectivity and wireless connectivity devices, as well as serial electrically erasable programmable read-only memories (EEPROMs) and serial flash memories.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MCHP – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $12,967,951,675 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 8.11 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 55.01% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 28.91 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.77 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 8.11 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.91 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

MCHP value chart July 2016

EPSmg $1.97
MG Growth Estimate 7.44%
MG Value $46.17
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $28.63
MG Value based on 0% Growth $16.78
Market Implied Growth Rate 10.20%
Current Price $57.08
% of Intrinsic Value 123.64%

Microchip Technology Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.32 in 2013 to an estimated $1.97 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 10.2% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Microchip Technology Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

MCHP charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$1.47
Graham Number $26.18
PEmg 28.91
Current Ratio 8.11
PB Ratio 5.77
Current Dividend $1.43
Dividend Yield 2.51%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 15

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $3,096,713,000
Total Current Liabilities $382,009,000
Long-Term Debt $2,483,037,000
Total Assets $5,567,515,000
Intangible Assets $1,619,001,000
Total Liabilities $3,416,596,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 217,388,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.89
Mar2016 $1.49
Mar2015 $1.65
Mar2014 $1.82
Mar2013 $0.62
Mar2012 $1.65
Mar2011 $2.15
Mar2010 $1.16
Mar2009 $1.33
Mar2008 $1.40
Mar2007 $1.62
Mar2006 $1.13
Mar2005 $1.01
Mar2004 $0.65
Mar2003 $0.42
Mar2002 $0.45
Mar2001 $0.69
Mar2000 $0.56
Mar1999 $0.28
Mar1998 $0.34
Mar1997 $0.28

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.97
Mar2016 $1.49
Mar2015 $1.52
Mar2014 $1.47
Mar2013 $1.32
Mar2012 $1.63
Mar2011 $1.59
Mar2010 $1.31
Mar2009 $1.36
Mar2008 $1.30
Mar2007 $1.16
Mar2006 $0.86
Mar2005 $0.70
Mar2004 $0.55
Mar2003 $0.49
Mar2002 $0.51
Mar2001 $0.50

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Microchip Technology Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $MCHP
Microchip Technology Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $MCHP
Microchip Technology Stock Valuation – May 2015 Quarterly Update $MCHP
34 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/7/15
Microchip Technology Inc. Quarterly Valuation – January 2015 $MCHP

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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