Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – July 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Broadcom Limited (AVGO) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Broadcom Limited is a semiconductor company. The Company offers a range of products in end-markets, including wired infrastructure, wireless communications, enterprise storage, and industrial and others. The Company’s products are used in various applications, including data center networking, home connectivity, broadband access, telecommunications equipment, smartphones and base stations, data center servers and storage, factory automation, power generation and alternative energy systems, and displays. The Company’s product categories include broadband access and modems, enterprise and network processors, Ethernet communication and switching, set-top box and media processors, wireless infrastructure and wireless connectivity. Its broadband access and modems category consists of products, such as Universal 1024 quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) Modulator, Universal DOCSIS 2.0-Based Downstream Modulator and QAMLink DOCSIS/EuroDOCSIS 2.0 Single-Chip Cable Modem.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$65,838,312,108||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||2.52||Pass|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-1842.86%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||50.69||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||3.46||Fail|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||2.52||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||3.63||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||14.09%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$46.98|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$27.54|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||21.09%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||138.19%|
Broadcom Ltd is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.67 in 2012 to an estimated $3.24 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 21.09% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
Broadcom Ltd receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$60.28|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||6|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||4/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$6,687,000,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$2,651,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||415,000,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$3.92|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$3.24|
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The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.