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Tuesday, January 16, 2018

3M Company Valuation – August 2016 $MMM


Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how 3M Company (MMM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): 3M Company is a technology company. The Company operates through five segments. Its Industrial segment serves markets, such as automotive original equipment manufacturer and automotive aftermarket, electronics, appliance, paper and printing, packaging, food and beverage, and construction. Its Safety and Graphics segment serves markets for the safety, security and productivity of people, facilities and systems. Its Health Care segment serves markets that include medical clinics and hospitals, pharmaceuticals, dental and orthodontic practitioners, health information systems, and food manufacturing and testing. Its Electronics and Energy segment serves customers in electronics and energy markets, including solutions for electronic devices; electrical products; telecommunications networks, and power generation and distribution. Its Consumer segment serves markets that include consumer retail, office business to business, home improvement, drug and pharmacy retail, and other markets.

chart (14)

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MMM – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $107,582,873,564 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.58 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 54.30% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 23.70 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 9.32 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.58 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.22 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

MMM value chart August 2016

EPSmg $7.53
MG Growth Estimate 4.65%
MG Value $134.09
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $109.23
MG Value based on 0% Growth $64.03
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.60%
Current Price $178.57
% of Intrinsic Value 133.17%

3M Co is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.75 in 2012 to an estimated $7.53 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.6% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into 3M Co revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $59.75. The company pays a dividend of $4.27 per share, for a yield of 2.4%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 23.7, which was below the industry average of 25.72, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-15.95.

3M Co performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

MMM charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.95
Graham Number $59.75
PEmg 23.70
Current Ratio 1.58
PB Ratio 9.32
Current Dividend $4.27
Dividend Yield 2.39%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Total Current Assets $11,436,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $7,254,000,000
Long-Term Debt $9,299,000,000
Total Assets $33,235,000,000
Intangible Assets $11,833,000,000
Total Liabilities $21,341,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 620,900,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.09
Dec2015 $7.58
Dec2014 $7.49
Dec2013 $6.72
Dec2012 $6.32
Dec2011 $5.96
Dec2010 $5.63
Dec2009 $4.52
Dec2008 $4.89
Dec2007 $5.60
Dec2006 $5.06
Dec2005 $4.12
Dec2004 $3.75
Dec2003 $3.02
Dec2002 $2.50
Dec2001 $1.79
Dec2000 $2.23
Dec1999 $2.17
Dec1998 $1.44
Dec1997 $2.53
Dec1996 $1.82

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.53
Dec2015 $7.11
Dec2014 $6.72
Dec2013 $6.17
Dec2012 $5.75
Dec2011 $5.42
Dec2010 $5.14
Dec2009 $4.88
Dec2008 $4.93
Dec2007 $4.74
Dec2006 $4.10
Dec2005 $3.43
Dec2004 $2.94
Dec2003 $2.47
Dec2002 $2.14
Dec2001 $1.98
Dec2000 $2.07

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

3M Company Valuation – February 2016 Update $MMM
15 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 9/12/15
3M Company Analysis – September 2015 Update $MMM
15 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 9/12/15
21 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/9/15

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

General Electric Co Valuation – July 2016 $GE
Illinois Tool Works Inc Valuation – July 2016 $ITW
Raven Industries Inc Valuation – July 2016 $RAVN
E.I. du Pont de Nemours Valuation – February 2016 $DD
Honeywell International Inc Valuation – February 2016 $HON
3M Company Valuation – February 2016 Update $MMM
Raven Industries Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $RAVN
Illinois Tool Works Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $ITW
E.I. du Pont de Nemours Valuation – February 2016 $DD
Honeywell International Inc Valuation – February 2016 $HON

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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