Insurance Stocks

American Financial Group Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AFG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how American Financial Group Inc (AFG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) is a holding company engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance businesses. The Company, through Great American Insurance Group, focuses on commercial products for businesses, and is engaged in the sale of fixed and fixed-indexed annuities in the retail, financial institutions and education markets. The Company has four segments: Property and casualty insurance, Annuity, Run-off long-term care and life, and Other. AFG’s property and casualty operations provide a range of commercial coverages, through its approximately 30 insurance businesses. AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations allow local decision-making for underwriting, claims and policy servicing. The Company’s property and casualty insurance products include property and transportation, specialty casualty and specialty financial. The Company’s Specialty Casualty insurance products include Executive and Professional Liability, and Umbrella and Excess Liability.

AFG Chart

AFG data by YCharts

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AFG – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $6,463,192,524 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 47.83% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.95 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.31 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

AFG value chart August 2016

EPSmg $4.65
MG Growth Estimate 1.76%
MG Value $55.79
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $67.36
MG Value based on 0% Growth $39.49
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.72%
Current Price $74.09
% of Intrinsic Value 132.79%

American Financial Group Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.16 in 2012 to an estimated $4.65 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 3.72% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into American Financial Group Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $78.19. The company pays a dividend of $1.09 per share, for a yield of 1.5% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 15.95, which was below the industry average of 16.56, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

American Financial Group Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

AFG charts August 2016

Graham Number $78.19
PEmg 15.95
PB Ratio 1.31
Dividend Yield 1.47%
TTM Dividend $1.09
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 11

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Useful Links:

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $998,000,000
Total Assets $52,733,000,000
Intangible Assets $199,000,000
Total Liabilities $47,733,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 88,400,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.72
Dec2015 $3.94
Dec2014 $4.97
Dec2013 $5.16
Dec2012 $5.09
Dec2011 $3.32
Dec2010 $4.36
Dec2009 $4.45
Dec2008 $1.67
Dec2007 $3.10
Dec2006 $3.75
Dec2005 $1.75
Dec2004 $3.21
Dec2003 $2.75
Dec2002 $0.82
Dec2001 -$0.15
Dec2000 -$0.63
Dec1999 $1.57
Dec1998 $1.33
Dec1997 $0.43
Dec1996 $2.53

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.65
Dec2015 $4.57
Dec2014 $4.78
Dec2013 $4.62
Dec2012 $4.16
Dec2011 $3.59
Dec2010 $3.64
Dec2009 $3.17
Dec2008 $2.58
Dec2007 $2.99
Dec2006 $2.78
Dec2005 $2.09
Dec2004 $1.91
Dec2003 $1.13
Dec2002 $0.41
Dec2001 $0.30
Dec2000 $0.70

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

15 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 2/13/16
American Financial Group Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AFG
12 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 11/7/15
12 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 11/7/15
American Financial Group Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $AFG

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

AFLAC Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AFL
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MetLife Inc Valuation – August 2016 $MET
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Aetna Inc Valuation – July 2016 $AET
XL Group Ltd Valuation – July 2016 $XL
Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc Valuation – July 2016 $MMC
Cigna Corp Valuation – July 2016 $CI
Progressive Corporation Valuation – June 2016 $PGR
Cincinnati Financial Corporation Valuation – May 2016 $CINF

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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