Insurance Stocks

American International Group Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AIG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how American International Group Inc (AIG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is an insurance company. The Company provides a range of property casualty insurance, life insurance, retirement products, mortgage insurance and other financial services to customers in over 100 countries and jurisdictions. The Company operates through two segments: Commercial Insurance and Consumer Insurance, as well as a Corporate and Other category. Commercial Insurance has three operating segments: Property Casualty, Mortgage Guaranty and Institutional Markets. Commercial Insurance segment is a provider of insurance products and services for commercial and institutional customers. Consumer Insurance also has three operating segments: Retirement, Life and Personal Insurance. Consumer Insurance is a franchise that offers a portfolio of retirement, life insurance and property casualty products through multiple distribution networks. Corporate and Other includes the Company, as well as certain legacy assets and run-off insurance businesses.

AIG Chart

AIG data by YCharts

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AIG – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $62,816,099,240 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -101.31% Fail
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.16 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.75 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

AIG value chart August 2016

EPSmg $3.64
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $140.01
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $52.73
MG Value based on 0% Growth $30.91
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.83%
Current Price $58.78
% of Intrinsic Value 41.98%

American International Group Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-56.58 in 2012 to an estimated $3.64 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.83% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into American International Group Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $82.15. The company pays a dividend of $1.2 per share, for a yield of 2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.16, which was below the industry average of 16.56, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

American International Group Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

AIG charts August 2016

Graham Number $82.15
PEmg 16.16
PB Ratio 0.75
Dividend Yield 2.04%
TTM Dividend $1.20
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $510,349,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $420,403,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,140,046,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.61
Dec2015 $1.65
Dec2014 $5.20
Dec2013 $6.13
Dec2012 $2.04
Dec2011 $11.01
Dec2010 $11.60
Dec2009 -$90.48
Dec2008 -$756.85
Dec2007 $47.80
Dec2006 $107.20
Dec2005 $79.80
Dec2004 $73.80
Dec2003 $70.60
Dec2002 $43.40
Dec2001 $30.80
Dec2000 $46.60
Dec1999 $46.80
Dec1998 $38.40
Dec1997 $32.00
Dec1996 $29.16

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.64
Dec2015 $4.17
Dec2014 $6.02
Dec2013 $0.30
Dec2012 -$56.58
Dec2011 -$109.06
Dec2010 -$158.11
Dec2009 -$202.81
Dec2008 -$202.54
Dec2007 $75.03
Dec2006 $84.08
Dec2005 $68.24
Dec2004 $59.32
Dec2003 $50.60
Dec2002 $40.80
Dec2001 $39.31
Dec2000 $41.90

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Stocks Trading Below Their Graham Number – July 2016
5 Companies for Enterprising Investors Near 52 Week Lows – June 2016
Stocks Trading Below Their Graham Number – June 2016
Stocks Trading Below Their Graham Number – May 2016
Stocks Trading Below Their Graham Number – March 2016

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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