Insurance Stocks

Assurant Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AIZ

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Assurant Inc (AIZ) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Assurant, Inc. is a provider of specialty protection products and related services. The Company’s segments include Assurant Solution, Assurant Specialty Property, Assurant Health and Corporate & Other. The Assurant Solutions segment provides mobile device protection products and services; debt protection administration; credit insurance; extended service products and related services for consumer electronics, appliances and vehicles, and offers pre-funded funeral insurance. The Assurant Specialty Property segment provides lender-placed homeowners insurance; property preservation and valuation services; flood insurance; renters insurance and related products, and manufactured housing homeowners insurance. The Assurant Health segment provides individual health and small employer group health insurance.

AIZ Chart

AIZ data by YCharts

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AIZ – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $5,277,584,399 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 35.79% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 14.59 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.19 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

AIZ value chart August 2016

EPSmg $6.00
MG Growth Estimate 4.60%
MG Value $106.24
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $87.04
MG Value based on 0% Growth $51.02
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.04%
Current Price $87.55
% of Intrinsic Value 82.41%

Assurant, Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.59 in 2012 to an estimated $6 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 3.04% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Assurant, Inc. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $123.04. The company pays a dividend of $1.8 per share, for a yield of 2.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.59, which was below the industry average of 16.56, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Assurant, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

AIZ charts August 2016

Graham Number $123.04
PEmg 14.59
PB Ratio 1.19
Dividend Yield 2.06%
TTM Dividend $1.80
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 13

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $1,165,255,000
Total Assets $29,804,213,000
Intangible Assets $1,121,220,000
Total Liabilities $25,196,142,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 62,723,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.85
Dec2015 $2.05
Dec2014 $6.44
Dec2013 $6.30
Dec2012 $5.67
Dec2011 $5.51
Dec2010 $2.50
Dec2009 $3.63
Dec2008 $3.76
Dec2007 $5.38
Dec2006 $5.57
Dec2005 $3.50
Dec2004 $2.53
Dec2003 $1.70
Dec2002 -$9.17
Dec2001 $0.90
Dec2000 $0.86

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.00
Dec2015 $4.78
Dec2014 $5.86
Dec2013 $5.29
Dec2012 $4.59
Dec2011 $4.09
Dec2010 $3.64
Dec2009 $4.26
Dec2008 $4.44
Dec2007 $4.43
Dec2006 $2.91
Dec2005 $1.02
Dec2004 -$0.36
Dec2003 -$1.58
Dec2002 -$2.65
Dec2001 $0.53
Dec2000 $0.29

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Assurant Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $AIZ
The Best Companies of the Insurance Industry – October 2015
The 20 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 8/15/15
Assurant Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $AIZ

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Hartford Financial Services Group Inc Valuation – August 2016 $HIG
MetLife Inc Valuation – August 2016 $MET
Genworth Financial Inc Valuation – August 2016 $GNW
Aetna Inc Valuation – July 2016 $AET

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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