IT Hardware Stocks

NetApp Inc Valuation – August 2016 $NTAP

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how NetApp Inc (NTAP) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): NetApp, Inc. (NetApp) provides software, systems and services to manage and store customer data. The Company enables enterprises, service providers, governmental organizations, and partners to envision, deploy and evolve their information technology (IT) environments. The Company offers a portfolio of products and services that satisfy a range of customer workloads across different data types and deployment models. Its data management and storage offerings help manage business productivity, performance and profitability, while providing investment protection and asset utilization. The Company’s FlexPod portfolio includes FlexPod Datacenter for core enterprise data centers and service providers, FlexPod Express for medium-sized businesses and branch offices, and FlexPod Select for data-intensive workloads. The portfolio is validated with hypervisors, operating systems, systems management tools and cloud management platforms.

NTAP Chart

NTAP data by YCharts

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of NTAP – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $9,564,466,864 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.07 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 111.93% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 21.75 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.49 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.07 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.55 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

NTAP value chart August 2016

EPSmg $1.59
MG Growth Estimate 2.25%
MG Value $20.67
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $23.06
MG Value based on 0% Growth $13.52
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.62%
Current Price $34.59
% of Intrinsic Value 167.32%

NetApp Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.38 in 2013 to an estimated $1.59 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 6.62% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into NetApp Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $21.7. The company pays a dividend of $0.73 per share, for a yield of 2.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 21.75, which was below the industry average of 22.64, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-2.74.

NetApp Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

NTAP charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$2.74
Graham Number $21.70
PEmg 21.75
Current Ratio 2.07
PB Ratio 3.49
Current Dividend $0.73
Dividend Yield 2.11%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 7/1/2016
Total Current Assets $5,223,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,524,000,000
Long-Term Debt $1,491,000,000
Total Assets $8,787,000,000
Intangible Assets $1,845,000,000
Total Liabilities $5,995,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 282,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.10
Apr2016 $0.77
Apr2015 $1.75
Apr2014 $1.83
Apr2013 $1.37
Apr2012 $1.58
Apr2011 $1.71
Apr2010 $1.13
Apr2009 $0.19
Apr2008 $0.86
Apr2007 $0.77
Apr2006 $0.69
Apr2005 $0.59
Apr2004 $0.42
Apr2003 $0.22
Apr2002 $0.01
Apr2001 $0.21
Apr2000 $0.21
Apr1999 $0.11
Apr1998 $0.07

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.59
Apr2016 $1.38
Apr2015 $1.67
Apr2014 $1.59
Apr2013 $1.38
Apr2012 $1.29
Apr2011 $1.08
Apr2010 $0.75
Apr2009 $0.58
Apr2008 $0.74
Apr2007 $0.63
Apr2006 $0.50
Apr2005 $0.37
Apr2004 $0.24
Apr2003 $0.15
Apr2002 $0.12
Apr2001 $0.16

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

NetApp Inc Valuation – March 2016 $NTAP
10 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 9/26/15
NetApp Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $NTAP
10 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 9/26/15
The Best Stocks of the IT Hardware Industry – September 2015

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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