Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Saia Inc (SAIA) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Saia, Inc. is a transportation company. The Company provides a range of less-than-truckload (LTL), non-asset truckload, expedited and logistics services across the United States. The Company conducts its operations through its subsidiaries, such as Saia Motor Freight Line, LLC (Saia LTL Freight), Saia TL Plus, LLC (Saia TL Plus), Saia Sales, LLC (Saia Sales), Saia Logistics Services, LLC (Saia Logistics Services), MetroGo, Inc. (MetroGo) and LinkEx, Inc. (LinkEx). Saia LTL Freight is a multi-regional LTL carrier that serves over 30 states in the South, Southwest, Midwest, Pacific Northwest and West. Saia LTL Freight specializes in offering its customers a range of regional and interregional LTL services, including time-definite and expedited options. Saia LTL Freight primarily provides its customers with solutions for shipments between 100 and 10,000 pounds, as well as selected guaranteed, expedited and truckload services.
Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation. In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.
Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$1,132,627,916||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||1.08||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Fail|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||-1185.71%||Fail|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||22.59||Fail|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||2.38||Pass|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||1.08||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||5.96||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Fail|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||15.00%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$27.95|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$16.38|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||7.05%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||58.69%|
Saia Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.45 in 2012 to an estimated $1.93 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 7.05% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Saia Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $28.05. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 22.6, which was above the industry average of 21.6. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-6.76.
Saia Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$6.76|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||0|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||9/1/2016|
|Total Current Assets||$166,402,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$153,401,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||25,658,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.88|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.93|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
None – This is the initial coverage.
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.