Mining Stocks

Centerra Gold Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – December 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Centerra Gold Inc (TSE:CG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Centerra Gold Inc. is a Canada-based gold mining company focused on operating, developing, exploring and acquiring gold properties in Asia, North America and other markets across the world. The Company’s exploration segment includes the operations of Lagares Project in which the activities are related to its subsidiary, Centerra Gold (KB) Inc. Its Kyrgyz segment includes Kumtor Gold Co. (KGC) (Kyrgyz Republic), which operates Kumtor Mine. Its Mongolian segment includes Centerra Gold Mongolia LLC (CGM) (Mongolia), which operates ATO Project and Gatsuurt Project, and Boroo Gold LLC (BGC) (Mongolia), which operates Boroo Mine. Its Turkish segment includes Centerra Luxembourg Holdings S.ar.L (Luxembourg), Centerra Exploration B.V. (CEBV) (The Netherlands), and Oksut Madencilik Sanayi Ve Tkaret A.S. (Turkey), which operates Oksut Project. Its Canadian segment includes Hearts Peak Project and Greenstone Gold Mines (Canada). Its subsidiaries also include Greenstone Gold Mines GP Inc.

CG Chart

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-CG – December 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,032,722,661 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.77 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 70.92% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.63 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.85 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.77 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.42
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $4.73
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $6.09
MG Value based on 0% Growth $3.57
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.07%
Current Price $6.99
% of Intrinsic Value 147.66%

Centerra Gold Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.59 in 2012 to an estimated $0.42 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 4.07% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Centerra Gold Inc. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $13.76. The company pays a dividend of $0.16 per share, for a yield of 2.3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.63, which was below the industry average of 62.88, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $4.73.

Centerra Gold Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $4.73
Graham Number $13.76
PEmg 16.63
Current Ratio 3.77
PB Ratio 0.85
Current Dividend $0.16
Dividend Yield 2.32%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $1,686,984,000
Total Current Liabilities $447,698,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $2,519,983,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $541,775,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 241,922,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.03
Dec2015 $0.25
Dec2014 -$0.22
Dec2013 $0.71
Dec2012 -$0.60
Dec2011 $1.61
Dec2010 $1.38
Dec2009 $0.29
Dec2008 $0.77
Dec2007 -$0.43
Dec2006 $0.32
Dec2005 -$0.27
Dec2004 -$0.44

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.42
Dec2015 $0.19
Dec2014 $0.30
Dec2013 $0.60
Dec2012 $0.59
Dec2011 $1.03
Dec2010 $0.65
Dec2009 $0.24
Dec2008 $0.14
Dec2007 -$0.17
Dec2006 -$0.05
Dec2005 -$0.21
Dec2004 -$0.15

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has reviewed the company.

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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