Insurance Stocks

MetLife Inc Valuation – December 2016 $MET

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – December 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how MetLife Inc (MET) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): MetLife, Inc. (MetLife) is a provider of life insurance, annuities, employee benefits and asset management. The Company’s segments include Retail; Group, Voluntary & Worksite Benefits; Corporate Benefit Funding; Latin America (collectively, the Americas); Asia, and Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA). Its Retail segment is organized into two businesses: Life & Other, and Annuities. Its Group, Voluntary & Worksite Benefits insurance products and services include life, dental, group short- and long-term disability, property and casualty, long-term care, accidental death and dismemberment, critical illness, vision, and accident and health coverages, as well as prepaid legal plans. Its Corporate Benefit Funding segment provides funding and financing solutions that help institutional customers manage liabilities primarily associated with their qualified, nonqualified and welfare employee benefit programs using a spectrum of life and annuity-based insurance and investment products.

MET Chart

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MET – December 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $61,376,377,207 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 105.35% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 14.01 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.80 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.04
MG Growth Estimate 10.56%
MG Value $119.73
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $58.61
MG Value based on 0% Growth $34.36
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.75%
Current Price $56.61
% of Intrinsic Value 47.28%

Metlife Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.37 in 2012 to an estimated $4.04 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.75% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Metlife Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $78.35. The company pays a dividend of $1.55 per share, for a yield of 2.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.01, which was below the industry average of 16.56, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Metlife Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $78.35
PEmg 14.01
PB Ratio 0.80
Dividend Yield 2.74%
TTM Dividend $1.55
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $19,721,000,000
Total Assets $952,904,000,000
Intangible Assets $9,592,000,000
Total Liabilities $874,618,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,109,254,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.83
Dec2015 $4.57
Dec2014 $5.42
Dec2013 $2.91
Dec2012 $1.12
Dec2011 $5.76
Dec2010 $2.86
Dec2009 -$2.89
Dec2008 $4.14
Dec2007 $5.48
Dec2006 $7.99
Dec2005 $6.16
Dec2004 $3.65
Dec2003 $2.94
Dec2002 $2.20
Dec2001 $0.62
Dec2000 $1.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.04
Dec2015 $4.08
Dec2014 $3.77
Dec2013 $2.61
Dec2012 $2.37
Dec2011 $3.02
Dec2010 $2.27
Dec2009 $2.71
Dec2008 $5.50
Dec2007 $5.87
Dec2006 $5.57
Dec2005 $3.95
Dec2004 $2.62
Dec2003 $1.89
Dec2002 $1.20
Dec2001 $0.60
Dec2000 $0.50

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

14 Best Undervalued Stocks of the Week – 8/6/16
MetLife Inc Valuation – August 2016 $MET
Stocks Trading Below Their Graham Number – July 2016
Dividend Investors Should Research These 10 Stocks – July 2016
Stocks Trading Below Their Graham Number – June 2016

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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American International Group Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AIG
Humana Inc Valuation – August 2016 $HUM
Chubb Limited Valuation – August 2016 $CB
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Anthem Inc Valuation – August 2016 $ANTM

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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