Construction Stocks

Alexander & Baldwin Inc Valuation – December 2016 $ALEX

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – December 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Alexander & Baldwin Inc (ALEX) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. (A&B) is engaged in real estate development, real estate leasing, materials and construction, and agribusiness. The Company operates in four segments: Real Estate Development and Sales, Real Estate Leasing, Materials and Construction, and Agribusiness. Real estate activities are conducted through A&B Properties, Inc. and other subsidiaries of A&B. The Real Estate Development and Sales segment is engaged in program of land stewardship, planning, entitlement, development, real estate investment, and sale of land and commercial and residential properties. The Real Estate Leasing segment owns, operates and manages a portfolio of over 60 retail, office and industrial properties in Hawaii and on the Mainland. The Materials and Construction segment performs asphalt paving as prime contractor and subcontractor. The Agribusiness segment consists of sugar plantation on the island of Maui, operated by its Hawaiian Commercial & Sugar Company (HC&S) division.

ALEX Chart

ALEX data by YCharts

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ALEX – December 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,164,146,772 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.80 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 92.59% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 71.60 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.80 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.80 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -14.20 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.62
MG Growth Estimate 0.71%
MG Value $6.16
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $9.01
MG Value based on 0% Growth $5.28
Market Implied Growth Rate 31.55%
Current Price $44.49
% of Intrinsic Value 722.13%

Alexander & Baldwin Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.59 in 2012 to an estimated $0.62 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 31.55% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Alexander & Baldwin Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $12.7. The company pays a dividend of $0.24 per share, for a yield of 0.5% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 71.6, which was above the industry average of 28.49. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-17.72.

Alexander & Baldwin Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$17.72
Graham Number $12.70
PEmg 71.60
Current Ratio 0.80
PB Ratio 1.80
Current Dividend $0.24
Dividend Yield 0.54%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $144,600,000
Total Current Liabilities $181,500,000
Long-Term Debt $523,900,000
Total Assets $2,224,200,000
Intangible Assets $158,100,000
Total Liabilities $1,013,100,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 49,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.29
Dec2015 $0.54
Dec2014 $1.25
Dec2013 $0.76
Dec2012 $0.44
Dec2011 $0.55
Dec2010 $0.78
Dec2009 $1.08

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.62
Dec2015 $0.76
Dec2014 $0.83
Dec2013 $0.66
Dec2012 $0.59
Dec2011 $0.61
Dec2010 $0.55
Dec2009 $0.36

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – August 2015
Alexander & Baldwin Inc Analysis – Initial Coverage $ALEX

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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