Pharmaceuticals Stocks

Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – December 2016 $ALXN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – December 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc (ALXN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on the development and commercialization of life-transforming therapeutic products. The Company operates through innovation, development and commercialization of life-transforming therapeutic products segment. The Company’s marketed products include Soliris (eculizumab), Strensiq (asfotase alfa) and Kanuma (sebelipase alfa). The Company’s clinical programs include Soliris (eculizumab), ALXN 1101, ALXN 1007, SBC-103, ALXN 1210 and ALXN 5500. It offers Soliris for patients with either paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH), a life-threatening and ultra-rare genetic blood disorder, or atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS), a life-threatening and ultra-rare genetic disease. Strensiq is a targeted enzyme replacement therapy. It offers Kanuma for the treatment of patients with Lysosomal Acid Lipase Deficiency (LAL-D). ALXN 1007 is a humanized antibody designed to target inflammatory disorders.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ALXN – December 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $24,979,334,534 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.11 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 441.18% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 60.73 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.10 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.11 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.78 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.92
MG Growth Estimate 13.72%
MG Value $69.09
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $27.87
MG Value based on 0% Growth $16.34
Market Implied Growth Rate 26.11%
Current Price $116.72
% of Intrinsic Value 168.93%

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1 in 2012 to an estimated $1.92 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 26.11% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $46.28. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 60.73, which was above the industry average of 28.95. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-9.71.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$9.71
Graham Number $46.28
PEmg 60.73
Current Ratio 3.11
PB Ratio 3.10
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Useful Links:

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $2,594,534,000
Total Current Liabilities $834,341,000
Long-Term Debt $3,129,384,000
Total Assets $13,293,462,000
Intangible Assets $9,505,170,000
Total Liabilities $4,789,359,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 226,088,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.51
Dec2015 $0.67
Dec2014 $3.26
Dec2013 $1.27
Dec2012 $1.28
Dec2011 $0.91
Dec2010 $0.52
Dec2009 $1.63
Dec2008 $0.20
Dec2007 -$0.64
Dec2006 -$1.04
Jul2005 -$0.98
Jul2004 -$0.86
Jul2003 -$1.16
Jul2002 -$0.78
Jul2001 -$0.82
Jul2000 -$0.36
Jul1999 -$0.14
Jul1998 -$0.22
Jul1997 -$0.24
Jul1996 -$0.24

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.92
Dec2015 $1.58
Dec2014 $1.84
Dec2013 $1.12
Dec2012 $1.00
Dec2011 $0.75
Dec2010 $0.49
Dec2009 $0.26
Dec2008 -$0.50
Dec2007 -$0.88
Dec2006 -$0.98
Jul2005 -$0.94
Jul2004 -$0.88
Jul2003 -$0.82
Jul2002 -$0.58
Jul2001 -$0.44
Jul2000 -$0.25

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $ALXN
47 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/16/15
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $ALXN
58 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/31/15
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. Quarterly Valuation – January 2015 $ALXN

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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