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Saturday, January 19, 2019

Alaska Air Group Inc Valuation – December 2016 $ALK


Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – December 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Alaska Air Group, Inc. is a holding company of Alaska Airlines (Alaska) and Horizon Air (Horizon). The Company’s segments include Alaska Mainline, Alaska Regional and Horizon. Its Alaska Mainline segment operates the Boeing 737 part of Alaska’s business. It offers north/south service within the western United States, Canada, Mexico and Costa Rica, as well as passenger and dedicated cargo services to and within the state of Alaska. Its regional operations consist of flights operated by Horizon, SkyWest Airlines, Inc. and Peninsula Airways, Inc. Its Horizon segment operates regional aircraft. It boasts over 1,200 daily flights to approximately 120 destinations. It offers over 290 daily flights to approximately 50 destinations from California, including over 110 daily nonstop flights to approximately 30 destinations from over three Bay Area airports and approximately 105 daily nonstop flights to over 40 destinations from approximately four Los Angeles area airports.

ALK Chart

ALK data by YCharts

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ALK – December 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $10,960,142,125 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.70 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 2544.87% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.15 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.86 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.70 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.26 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.53
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $212.93
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $80.19
MG Value based on 0% Growth $47.01
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.83%
Current Price $89.34
% of Intrinsic Value 41.96%

Alaska Air Group, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.57 in 2012 to an estimated $5.53 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.83% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Alaska Air Group, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $59.71. The company pays a dividend of $1.03 per share, for a yield of 1.1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.15, which was below the industry average of 17.26, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-18.05.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$18.05
Graham Number $59.71
PEmg 16.15
Current Ratio 1.70
PB Ratio 3.86
Current Dividend $1.03
Dividend Yield 1.15%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $3,600,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,123,000,000
Long-Term Debt $1,861,000,000
Total Assets $8,699,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $5,835,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 123,833,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.82
Dec2015 $6.56
Dec2014 $4.42
Dec2013 $3.58
Dec2012 $2.20
Dec2011 $1.67
Dec2010 $1.71
Dec2009 $0.84
Dec2008 -$0.94
Dec2007 $0.77
Dec2006 -$0.35
Dec2005 -$0.05
Dec2004 -$0.14
Dec2003 $0.13
Dec2002 -$1.12
Dec2001 -$0.41
Dec2000 -$0.64
Dec1999 $1.27
Dec1998 $1.20
Dec1997 $0.88
Dec1996 $0.51

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.53
Dec2015 $4.49
Dec2014 $3.20
Dec2013 $2.40
Dec2012 $1.57
Dec2011 $1.11
Dec2010 $0.69
Dec2009 $0.13
Dec2008 -$0.19
Dec2007 $0.14
Dec2006 -$0.22
Dec2005 -$0.21
Dec2004 -$0.33
Dec2003 -$0.34
Dec2002 -$0.36
Dec2001 $0.17
Dec2000 $0.52

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Alaska Air Group Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $ALK

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Delta Air Lines Inc Valuation – July 2016 $DAL
Southwest Airlines Company Valuation – October 2015 Update $LUV
Alaska Air Group Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $ALK
American Airlines Group Analysis – 2015 Initial Coverage $AAL
Delta Air Lines Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $DAL
Southwest Airlines Company Annual Valuation – 2014 $LUV

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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