Insurance Stocks

Berkshire Hathaway Inc Valuation – January 2017 $BRK.B

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – December 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.B) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is a holding company owning subsidiaries engaged in various business activities. The Company conducts insurance businesses on both a primary basis and a reinsurance basis, a freight rail transportation business and a group of utility and energy generation and distribution businesses. Its segments include GEICO, General Re Corporation (General Re), Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group (BHRG), Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, LLC (BNSF), Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Manufacturing, McLane Company, Service and retailing, and Finance and financial products. Its insurance and reinsurance business activities are conducted through various domestic and foreign-based insurance entities. Its insurance businesses provide insurance and reinsurance of property and casualty risks, and also reinsure life, accident and health risks across the world.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of BRK.B – January 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $402,387,877,822 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 121.45% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 20.24 Fail
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.50 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $8.07
MG Growth Estimate 10.44%
MG Value $237.19
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $117.08
MG Value based on 0% Growth $68.64
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.87%
Current Price $163.41
% of Intrinsic Value 68.89%

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.76 in 2012 to an estimated $8.07 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.87% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Berkshire Hathaway Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $133.13. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 20.24, which was above the industry average of 18.78.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $133.13
PEmg 20.24
PB Ratio 1.50
Dividend Yield 0.00%
TTM Dividend $0.00
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $101,798,000,000
Total Assets $604,038,000,000
Intangible Assets $114,426,000,000
Total Liabilities $334,774,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 2,465,868,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.21
Dec2015 $9.77
Dec2014 $8.06
Dec2013 $7.90
Dec2012 $5.99
Dec2011 $4.14
Dec2010 $5.29
Dec2009 $3.46
Dec2008 $2.15
Dec2007 $5.70
Dec2006 $4.76
Dec2005 $3.69
Dec2004 $3.17
Dec2003 $3.54
Dec2002 $1.86
Dec2001 $0.35
Dec2000 $1.46
Dec1999 $0.68
Dec1998 $1.51
Dec1997 $1.03
Dec1996 $1.38

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.07
Dec2015 $8.06
Dec2014 $6.90
Dec2013 $5.99
Dec2012 $4.76
Dec2011 $4.15
Dec2010 $4.19
Dec2009 $3.75
Dec2008 $3.89
Dec2007 $4.57
Dec2006 $3.80
Dec2005 $3.06
Dec2004 $2.52
Dec2003 $1.99
Dec2002 $1.20
Dec2001 $0.91
Dec2000 $1.20

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Berkshire Hathaway Analysis – August 2015 Update $BRK/B
20 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 8/16/14

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Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in Berkshire Hathaway Inc but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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