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Celestica Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CLS

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – January 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Celestica Inc (TSE:CLS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Celestica Inc. is a provider of supply chain solutions in the communications, consumer, diversified, servers and storage end markets. The Company operates in electronics manufacturing services business segment. The Company offers a range of services to its customers, including design and development, engineering services, supply chain management, new product introduction, component sourcing, electronics manufacturing, assembly and test, complex mechanical assembly, systems integration, precision machining, order fulfillment, logistics and after-market repair and return services. Its products and services serve a range of applications, including servers; storage systems; optical equipment; aerospace and defense electronics; healthcare products and applications; semiconductor equipment, and a range of industrial and alternative energy products, including solar panels and inverters. It designs, manufactures and tests solar panels for the residential, commercial and utility scale markets.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-CLS – January 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,968,662,816 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.88 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -180.36% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.51 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.46 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.88 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.98
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $37.85
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $14.25
MG Value based on 0% Growth $8.36
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.00%
Current Price $16.23
% of Intrinsic Value 42.88%

Celestica Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.29 in 2012 to an estimated $0.98 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Celestica Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $20.71. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.51, which was below the industry average of 28.12, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $6.81.

Celestica Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $6.81
Graham Number $20.71
PEmg 16.51
Current Ratio 1.88
PB Ratio 1.46
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $3,074,322,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,636,650,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $3,688,164,000
Intangible Assets $60,034,000
Total Liabilities $2,100,406,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 143,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.69
Dec2015 $0.58
Dec2014 $0.69
Dec2013 $0.68
Dec2012 $0.55
Dec2011 $0.90
Dec2010 $0.44
Dec2009 $0.25
Dec2008 -$3.87
Dec2007 -$0.06
Dec2006 -$0.76
Dec2005 -$0.24
Dec2004 -$4.69
Dec2003 -$1.62
Dec2002 -$3.09
Dec2001 -$0.41
Dec2000 $1.51
Dec1999 $0.59
Dec1998 -$0.82
Dec1997 -$0.15

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.98
Dec2015 $0.65
Dec2014 $0.67
Dec2013 $0.63
Dec2012 $0.29
Dec2011 -$0.05
Dec2010 -$0.62
Dec2009 -$1.08
Dec2008 -$1.80
Dec2007 -$1.01
Dec2006 -$1.68
Dec2005 -$2.09
Dec2004 -$2.57
Dec2003 -$1.20
Dec2002 -$0.81
Dec2001 $0.26
Dec2000 $0.48

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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