Banks Stocks

U.S. Bancorp Valuation – February 2017 $USB

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – January 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how U.S. Bancorp (USB) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): U.S. Bancorp is a multi-state financial services holding company. The Company’s banking subsidiary, U.S. Bank National Association, is engaged in the general banking business in domestic markets. It provides a range of financial services, including lending and depository services, cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services. It also engages in credit card services, merchant and automated teller machines (ATMs) processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage and leasing. U.S. Bank National Association provides a range of products and services to individuals, businesses, institutional organizations, governmental entities and other financial institutions. Its lending services include traditional credit products, as well as credit card services, leasing financing and import/export trade, asset-backed lending and agricultural finance. Its depository services include checking accounts, savings accounts and time certificate contracts.

USB Chart

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of USB – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $91,376,615,020 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 126.91% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.60 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.93 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.23
MG Growth Estimate 4.06%
MG Value $53.73
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $46.88
MG Value based on 0% Growth $27.48
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.05%
Current Price $53.66
% of Intrinsic Value 99.86%

U.S. Bancorp qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.54 in 2013 to an estimated $3.23 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.05% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into U.S. Bancorp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $43.28. The company pays a dividend of $1.07 per share, for a yield of 2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.6, which was below the industry average of 21.43, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

U.S. Bancorp receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $43.28
PEmg 16.60
PB Ratio 1.93
Dividend Yield 1.99%
TTM Dividend $1.07
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $33,323,000,000
Total Assets $445,964,000,000
Intangible Assets $12,647,000,000
Total Liabilities $398,666,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,705,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.38
Dec2016 $3.24
Dec2015 $3.16
Dec2014 $3.08
Dec2013 $3.00
Dec2012 $2.84
Dec2011 $2.46
Dec2010 $1.73
Dec2009 $0.97
Dec2008 $1.61
Dec2007 $2.43
Dec2006 $2.61
Dec2005 $2.42
Dec2004 $2.18
Dec2003 $1.93
Dec2002 $1.65
Dec2001 $0.88
Dec2000 $1.50
Dec1999 $2.06
Dec1998 $1.78
Dec1997 $1.11

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.23
Dec2016 $3.13
Dec2015 $3.02
Dec2014 $2.84
Dec2013 $2.54
Dec2012 $2.19
Dec2011 $1.85
Dec2010 $1.66
Dec2009 $1.75
Dec2008 $2.17
Dec2007 $2.41
Dec2006 $2.32
Dec2005 $2.05
Dec2004 $1.79
Dec2003 $1.60
Dec2002 $1.48
Dec2001 $1.42

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Best Stocks to Invest In: the Bank Industry – August 2016
5 Companies for the Defensive Investor Near 52 Week Lows – July 2016
15 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 2/13/16
U.S. Bancorp Valuation – February 2016 $USB
12 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 11/7/15

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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