Financial Services Stocks

CME Group Inc Valuation – February 2017 $CME

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – January 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how CME Group Inc (CME) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): CME Group Inc. is a provider of products across all major asset classes, based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities and metals. The Company’s products include both exchange-traded and privately negotiated futures and options contracts and swaps. The Company connects buyers and sellers together through its CME Globex electronic trading platform across the globe and its open outcry trading facilities in Chicago and New York City. Its CME Direct technology offers side-by-side trading of exchange-listed and privately negotiated markets. The Company provides clearing and settlement services for exchange-traded contracts, as well as for cleared swaps, and provides regulatory reporting solutions for market participants through its global repository services in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia. It offers a range of market data services, including live quotes, delayed quotes, market reports and a historical data service.

CME Chart

CME data by YCharts

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CME – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

 

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $40,264,946,681 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.03 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 64.91% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 29.13 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.00 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.03 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.05 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

 

EPSmg $4.12
MG Growth Estimate 3.57%
MG Value $64.38
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $59.70
MG Value based on 0% Growth $35.00
Market Implied Growth Rate 10.32%
Current Price $119.95
% of Intrinsic Value 186.32%

CME Group Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.33 in 2013 to an estimated $4.12 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 10.32% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into CME Group Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $78.68. The company pays a dividend of $2.4 per share, for a yield of 2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 29.13, which was above the industry average of 21.33. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-26.51.

CME Group Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$26.51
Graham Number $78.68
PEmg 29.13
Current Ratio 1.03
PB Ratio 2.00
Current Dividend $2.40
Dividend Yield 2.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

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Useful Links:

 

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
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GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $40,031,500,000
Total Current Liabilities $38,945,600,000
Long-Term Debt $2,231,200,000
Total Assets $69,369,400,000
Intangible Assets $27,186,100,000
Total Liabilities $49,028,700,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 339,338,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.59
Dec2016 $4.53
Dec2015 $3.69
Dec2014 $3.35
Dec2013 $2.92
Dec2012 $2.70
Dec2011 $5.43
Dec2010 $2.86
Dec2009 $2.48
Dec2008 $2.43
Dec2007 $2.99
Dec2006 $2.32
Dec2005 $1.76
Dec2004 $1.28
Dec2003 $0.72
Dec2002 $0.63
Dec2001 $0.51
Dec2000 -$0.04

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.12
Dec2016 $3.73
Dec2015 $3.43
Dec2014 $3.35
Dec2013 $3.33
Dec2012 $3.41
Dec2011 $3.59
Dec2010 $2.65
Dec2009 $2.50
Dec2008 $2.39
Dec2007 $2.18
Dec2006 $1.64
Dec2005 $1.19
Dec2004 $0.81
Dec2003 $0.50
Dec2002 $0.34
Dec2001 $0.16

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

CME Group Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $CME
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 10/11/14
CME Group Inc. Annual Stock Valuation – 2014 $CME

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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