REIT Stocks

Camden Property Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $CPT

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Camden Property Trust (CPT) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Camden Property Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company is engaged in the ownership, management, development, redevelopment, acquisition and construction of multifamily apartment communities. The Company operates in the ownership, management, development, redevelopment, acquisition, and construction of multifamily apartment communities segment. The Company owns interests in, operates, or is developing approximately 180 multifamily properties consisting of approximately 62,650 apartment homes across the United States. Of the over 180 properties, approximately eight properties are under construction. It also owns land holdings. Its properties consist of mid-rise buildings or two and three story buildings in a landscaped setting and provide residents with various amenities common to multifamily rental properties. Its operating properties have over 200 apartment homes. Its properties include Camden Copper Square, Camden Montierra and Camden Ballantyne.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CPT – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $7,214,472,682 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 1513.58% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 20.23 Fail
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.48 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.07
MG Growth Estimate 12.00%
MG Value $132.41
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $59.06
MG Value based on 0% Growth $34.62
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.87%
Current Price $82.43
% of Intrinsic Value 62.25%

Camden Property Trust is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.26 in 2013 to an estimated $4.07 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.87% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Camden Property Trust revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $31.26. The company pays a dividend of $3 per share, for a yield of 3.6%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 20.24, which was below the industry average of 31.91, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Camden Property Trust receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $31.26
PEmg 20.24
PB Ratio 2.48
Dividend Yield 3.64%
TTM Dividend $3.00
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $2,480,588,000
Total Assets $6,028,152,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $3,013,279,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 90,844,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.26
Dec2016 $9.05
Dec2015 $2.76
Dec2014 $3.27
Dec2013 $3.78
Dec2012 $3.30
Dec2011 $0.66
Dec2010 $0.33
Dec2009 -$0.80
Dec2008 $1.28
Dec2007 $2.51
Dec2006 $3.96
Dec2005 $3.58
Dec2004 $0.98
Dec2003 $0.71
Dec2002 $1.73
Dec2001 $1.41
Dec2000 $1.63
Dec1999 $1.23
Dec1998 $1.12
Dec1997 $1.41

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.07
Dec2016 $5.13
Dec2015 $3.03
Dec2014 $2.87
Dec2013 $2.26
Dec2012 $1.32
Dec2011 $0.49
Dec2010 $0.75
Dec2009 $1.34
Dec2008 $2.43
Dec2007 $2.79
Dec2006 $2.68
Dec2005 $1.92
Dec2004 $1.16
Dec2003 $1.28
Dec2002 $1.52
Dec2001 $1.39

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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