Insurance Stocks

Loews Corporation – February 2017 $L

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Loews Corporation (L) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Loews Corporation is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in commercial property and casualty insurance; operation of offshore oil and gas drilling rigs; transportation and storage of natural gas and natural gas liquids and gathering and processing of natural gas, and operation of a chain of hotels. The Company’s subsidiaries include CNA Financial Corporation (CNA); Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (Diamond Offshore); Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP (Boardwalk Pipeline), and Loews Hotels Holding Corporation (Loews Hotels). CNA’s insurance products include commercial property and casualty coverages, including surety. CNA’s services include risk management, information services, warranty and claims administration. Diamond Offshore is engaged, through its subsidiaries, in the business of operating drilling rigs that are chartered on a contract basis for fixed terms by companies engaged in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of L – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $15,844,772,036 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -71.79% Fail
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 34.36 Fail
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.86 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.36
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $19.74
MG Value based on 0% Growth $11.57
Market Implied Growth Rate 12.93%
Current Price $46.78
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Loews Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.57 in 2012 to an estimated $1.36 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 12.93% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Loews Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $45.27. The company pays a dividend of $0.25 per share, for a yield of 0.5% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 34.37, which was above the industry average of 18.78.

Loews Corporation scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $45.27
PEmg 34.37
PB Ratio 0.86
Dividend Yield 0.54%
TTM Dividend $0.25
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $10,737,000,000
Total Assets $78,508,000,000
Intangible Assets $347,000,000
Total Liabilities $60,238,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 337,620,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.68
Dec2015 $0.72
Dec2014 $1.55
Dec2013 $1.53
Dec2012 $1.43
Dec2011 $2.62
Dec2010 $3.07
Dec2009 $1.30
Dec2008 $9.05
Dec2007 $3.65
Dec2006 $3.75
Dec2005 $1.72
Dec2004 $1.88
Dec2003 -$1.28
Dec2002 $1.64
Dec2001 -$0.94
Dec2000 $3.10
Dec1999 $0.56
Dec1998 $0.68
Dec1997 $1.15
Dec1996 $1.99

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.36
Dec2015 $1.32
Dec2014 $1.76
Dec2013 $1.91
Dec2012 $2.57
Dec2011 $3.40
Dec2010 $3.92
Dec2009 $4.19
Dec2008 $5.09
Dec2007 $2.73
Dec2006 $2.02
Dec2005 $0.97
Dec2004 $0.69
Dec2003 $0.27
Dec2002 $1.03
Dec2001 $0.79
Dec2000 $1.60

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Loews Corporation Valuation – November 2015 Update $L
The Best Companies of the Retail Industry – August 2015
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/8/14
Loews Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $L
19 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 8/9/14

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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