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Kopin Corporation Valuation – Initial Coverage $KOPN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Kopin Corporation (KOPN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Kopin Corporation is an inventor, developer, manufacturer and seller of wearable technologies, which include components and systems. It operates in two segments, which include Forth Dimension Displays Ltd. (FDD) and Kopin. FDD is the manufacturer of its reflective display products for test and simulation products. Kopin consists of Kopin Corporation, Kowon Technology Co. LTD (Kowon), Kopin Software Ltd. and eMDT America, Inc. (eMDT). The components that it sells consist of its active-matrix liquid crystal displays (AMLCD), liquid crystal on silicon (LCOS) displays, application specific integrated circuits (ASICs), backlights and optical lenses. Its transmissive AMLCDs and reflective LCOS micro-displays are manufactured in its facilities in United States and United Kingdom, provide either color or monochrome images, and are offered in various sizes and resolutions. Its ASICs, optical lenses and backlights are manufactured by third parties.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of KOPN – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $241,161,719 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 6.95 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -565.22% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -11.34 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.80 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 6.95 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$0.31
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $1.20
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$4.51
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$2.65
Market Implied Growth Rate -9.92%
Current Price $3.53
% of Intrinsic Value 294.15%

Kopin Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $-0.02 in 2012 to an estimated $-0.31 for 2016. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Kopin Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -11.34, which was below the industry average of 28.12, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $1.2.

Kopin Corporation scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $1.20
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg -11.34
Current Ratio 6.95
PB Ratio 2.80
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $90,354,000
Total Current Liabilities $12,993,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $94,285,000
Intangible Assets $870,000
Total Liabilities $13,491,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 64,048,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.39
Dec2015 -$0.23
Dec2014 -$0.45
Dec2013 -$0.08
Dec2012 -$0.29
Dec2011 $0.05
Dec2010 $0.13
Dec2009 $0.29
Dec2008 $0.04
Dec2007 -$0.10
Dec2006 -$0.03
Dec2005 $0.15
Dec2004 -$0.22
Dec2003 -$0.14
Dec2002 -$0.46
Dec2001 -$0.34
Dec2000 $0.09
Dec1999 $0.01
Dec1998 -$0.06
Dec1997 -$0.14
Dec1996 -$0.50

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.31
Dec2015 -$0.25
Dec2014 -$0.21
Dec2013 -$0.06
Dec2012 -$0.02
Dec2011 $0.11
Dec2010 $0.11
Dec2009 $0.09
Dec2008 -$0.01
Dec2007 -$0.05
Dec2006 -$0.06
Dec2005 -$0.12
Dec2004 -$0.24
Dec2003 -$0.22
Dec2002 -$0.23
Dec2001 -$0.10
Dec2000 -$0.03

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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