Defense Stocks

Northrop Grumman Corp Valuation – February 2017 $NOC

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Northrop Grumman Corporation is a global security company. The Company provides products, systems and solutions in autonomous systems; cyber; command, control, communications and computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR); strike, and logistics and modernization. The Company’s segments include Aerospace Systems, Mission Systems and Technology Services. The Company’s Aerospace Systems segment is engaged in the design, development, integration and production of manned aircraft, autonomous systems, spacecraft, high-energy laser systems, microelectronics and other systems/subsystems. The Mission Systems segment offers mission solutions and multifunction systems for Department of Defense (DoD), intelligence community, international, federal civil and commercial customers. The Technology Services segment provides logistics solutions supporting the full life cycle of platforms and systems for global defense and federal-civil customers.

NOC Chart

NOC data by YCharts

[level-free]
To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

Learn More About Premium Membership

[/level-free]
[not-level-free]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of NOC – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $42,537,652,079 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.22 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 312.59% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 22.11 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 8.36 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.22 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 5.76 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $11.02
MG Growth Estimate 6.67%
MG Value $240.68
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $159.77
MG Value based on 0% Growth $93.66
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.80%
Current Price $243.58
% of Intrinsic Value 101.21%

Northrop Grumman Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $7.63 in 2013 to an estimated $11.02 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 6.8% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Northrop Grumman Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $88.16. The company pays a dividend of $3.5 per share, for a yield of 1.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 22.11, which was below the industry average of 22.93, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-74.79.

Northrop Grumman Corporation scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$74.79
Graham Number $88.16
PEmg 22.11
Current Ratio 1.22
PB Ratio 8.36
Current Dividend $3.50
Dividend Yield 1.44%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 14

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $6,856,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $5,630,000,000
Long-Term Debt $7,058,000,000
Total Assets $25,614,000,000
Intangible Assets $12,450,000,000
Total Liabilities $20,355,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 180,500,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $11.50
Dec2016 $12.19
Dec2015 $10.39
Dec2014 $9.75
Dec2013 $8.35
Dec2012 $7.81
Dec2011 $7.52
Dec2010 $6.82
Dec2009 $5.21
Dec2008 -$3.77
Dec2007 $5.12
Dec2006 $4.37
Dec2005 $3.85
Dec2004 $2.97
Dec2003 $2.09
Dec2002 $1.84
Dec2001 $2.37
Dec2000 $4.29
Dec1999 $3.35
Dec1998 $1.40
Dec1997 $2.99

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $11.02
Dec2016 $10.42
Dec2015 $9.28
Dec2014 $8.50
Dec2013 $7.63
Dec2012 $6.42
Dec2011 $5.21
Dec2010 $3.88
Dec2009 $2.59
Dec2008 $1.69
Dec2007 $4.18
Dec2006 $3.48
Dec2005 $2.90
Dec2004 $2.52
Dec2003 $2.46
Dec2002 $2.64
Dec2001 $2.99

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Northrop Grumman Corporation Valuation – November 2015 Update $NOC
30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/15/14
Northrop Grumman Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $NOC
17 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 8/2/14
Northrop Grumman Corporation Quarterly Valuation – July 2014 $NOC

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Rockwell Collins Inc Valuation – January 2017 $COL
Raytheon Company Valuation – August 2016 $RTN
Rockwell Collins Inc Valuation – August 2016 $COL
L-3 Communications Holdings Inc Valuation – July 2016 $LLL
Lockheed Martin Corporation Valuation – June 2016 $LMT
United Technologies Corporation Valuation – May 2016 $UTX
Raytheon Co Valuation – February 2016 $RTN
Rockwell Collins Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $COL
General Dynamics Corporation Valuation – January 2016 Update $GD
Precision Castparts Corporation Valuation – January 2016 Update $PCP

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Back To Top