REIT Stocks

Kite Realty Group Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Kite Realty Group Trust is a real estate investment trust. The Company, through its subsidiary Kite Realty Group, L.P., holds interests in various operating subsidiaries and joint ventures engaged in the ownership, operation, acquisition, development and redevelopment of neighborhood and community shopping centers in certain markets in the United States. The Company holds interests in approximately three development projects under construction, and over six redevelopment projects. The Company holds interests in approximately 110 retail operating properties totaling over 20 million square feet of gross leasable area located in approximately 20 states. The Company’s properties include Clay Marketplace and Trussville Promenade in Birmingham, Alabama; The Corner in Tucson, Arizona; Rampart Commons in Las Vegas, Nevada; Merrimack Village Center in Merrimack, New Hampshire; Bayonne Crossing in Bayonne, New Jersey, and Memorial Commons in Golsboro, North Carolina.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of KRG – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,916,819,564 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.41 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -100.79% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -235.54 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.18 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.41 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -13.83 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$0.10
MG Growth Estimate 10.45%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$1.43
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$0.84
Market Implied Growth Rate -122.02%
Current Price $23.24
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Kite Realty Group Trust does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.33 in 2012 to an estimated $-0.1 for 2016. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Kite Realty Group Trust revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $4.21. The company pays a dividend of $1.14 per share, for a yield of 4.9%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -235.54, which was below the industry average of 31.91, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-23.45.

Kite Realty Group Trust scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$23.45
Graham Number $4.21
PEmg -235.54
Current Ratio 0.41
PB Ratio 1.18
Current Dividend $1.14
Dividend Yield 4.89%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 3

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $88,728,000
Total Current Liabilities $213,990,000
Long-Term Debt $1,732,344,000
Total Assets $3,690,918,000
Intangible Assets $69,998,000
Total Liabilities $2,046,510,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 83,474,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.04
Dec2015 $0.18
Dec2014 -$0.24
Dec2013 -$0.48
Dec2012 -$0.72
Dec2011 -$0.04
Dec2010 -$0.56
Dec2009 -$0.12
Dec2008 $0.80
Dec2007 $1.84
Dec2006 $1.40
Dec2005 $2.48
Dec2004 -$0.11

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.10
Dec2015 -$0.20
Dec2014 -$0.39
Dec2013 -$0.44
Dec2012 -$0.33
Dec2011 $0.04
Dec2010 $0.28
Dec2009 $0.89
Dec2008 $1.36
Dec2007 $1.47
Dec2006 $1.11
Dec2005 $0.80
Dec2004 -$0.04

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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