Oil & Gas Stocks

Chevron Corporation Valuation – March 2017 $CVX

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Chevron Corporation (CVX) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Chevron Corporation (Chevron) manages its investments in subsidiaries and affiliates, and provides administrative, financial, management and technology support to the United States and international subsidiaries that engage in integrated energy and chemicals operations. The Company operates through two business segments: Upstream and Downstream. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transporting crude oil by international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas, and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing of crude oil and refined products; transporting of crude oil and refined products, and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals.

CVX Chart

CVX data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CVX – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $200,232,491,397 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.93 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -78.33% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 29.20 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.39 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.93 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -16.25 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.69
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $53.50
MG Value based on 0% Growth $31.36
Market Implied Growth Rate 10.35%
Current Price $107.73
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Chevron Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $11.55 in 2013 to an estimated $3.69 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 10.35% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Chevron Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $78.37. The company pays a dividend of $4.29 per share, for a yield of 4%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 29.2, which was below the industry average of 69.19, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-45.33.

Chevron Corporation receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$45.33
Graham Number $78.37
PEmg 29.20
Current Ratio 0.93
PB Ratio 1.39
Current Dividend $4.29
Dividend Yield 3.98%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

 

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $29,619,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $31,785,000,000
Long-Term Debt $35,193,000,000
Total Assets $260,078,000,000
Intangible Assets $4,581,000,000
Total Liabilities $114,522,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,873,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.54
Dec2016 -$0.27
Dec2015 $2.45
Dec2014 $10.14
Dec2013 $11.09
Dec2012 $13.32
Dec2011 $13.44
Dec2010 $9.48
Dec2009 $5.24
Dec2008 $11.67
Dec2007 $8.77
Dec2006 $7.80
Dec2005 $6.54
Dec2004 $6.28
Dec2003 $3.48
Dec2002 $0.53
Dec2001 $1.55
Dec2000 $3.99
Dec1999 $1.57
Dec1998 $1.02
Dec1997 $2.48

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.69
Dec2016 $4.96
Dec2015 $8.41
Dec2014 $11.43
Dec2013 $11.55
Dec2012 $11.40
Dec2011 $10.20
Dec2010 $8.58
Dec2009 $8.09
Dec2008 $9.08
Dec2007 $7.38
Dec2006 $6.10
Dec2005 $4.72
Dec2004 $3.60
Dec2003 $2.25
Dec2002 $1.66
Dec2001 $2.19

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Overvalued Dow Components – February 2017
Chevron Corp Valuation – August 2016 $CVX
5 Most Overvalued Dow Components – July 2015
5 Most Overvalued Dow Components – June 2015
Chevron Corporation Analysis – 2015 Annual Update $CVX

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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