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Albemarle Corp Valuation – March 2017 $ALB

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Albemarle Corp (ALB) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Albemarle Corporation is a global developer, manufacturer and marketer of highly-engineered specialty chemicals. The Company operates through three segments: Lithium and Advanced Materials, Bromine Specialties and Refining Solutions. Lithium and Advanced Materials segment consist of two product categories: Lithium and Performance Catalyst Solutions. The bromine and bromine-based business includes products used in fire safety solutions and other specialty chemicals applications. The Company serves various end markets, including petroleum refining, consumer electronics, energy storage, construction, automotive, lubricants, pharmaceuticals, crop protection, food safety and custom chemistry services. As of December 31, 2016, the Company and its joint ventures operated 31 production and research and development (R&D) facilities, as well as a number of administrative and sales offices, around the world.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ALB – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $12,068,159,047 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.90 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 71.18% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 26.35 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.17 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.90 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.98 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.03
MG Growth Estimate 0.11%
MG Value $35.12
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $58.44
MG Value based on 0% Growth $34.26
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.93%
Current Price $106.21
% of Intrinsic Value 302.41%

Albemarle Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4 in 2013 to an estimated $4.03 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.93% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Albemarle Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $55.71. The company pays a dividend of $1.22 per share, for a yield of 1.1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 26.35, which was above the industry average of 22.46. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-9.36.

Albemarle Corporation receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$9.36
Graham Number $55.71
PEmg 26.35
Current Ratio 2.90
PB Ratio 3.17
Current Dividend $1.22
Dividend Yield 1.15%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $3,306,618,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,140,103,000
Long-Term Debt $2,121,718,000
Total Assets $8,161,207,000
Intangible Assets $1,894,596,000
Total Liabilities $4,366,145,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 113,239,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.09
Dec2016 $5.68
Dec2015 $3.00
Dec2014 $1.69
Dec2013 $4.90
Dec2012 $3.47
Dec2011 $4.28
Dec2010 $3.43
Dec2009 $1.94
Dec2008 $2.09
Dec2007 $2.36
Dec2006 $1.47
Dec2005 $1.20
Dec2004 $0.65
Dec2003 $0.86
Dec2002 $0.85
Dec2001 $0.74
Dec2000 $1.09
Dec1999 $0.94
Dec1998 $0.82
Dec1997 $0.72

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.03
Dec2016 $3.92
Dec2015 $3.18
Dec2014 $3.36
Dec2013 $4.00
Dec2012 $3.38
Dec2011 $3.17
Dec2010 $2.49
Dec2009 $1.95
Dec2008 $1.82
Dec2007 $1.56
Dec2006 $1.11
Dec2005 $0.90
Dec2004 $0.78
Dec2003 $0.87
Dec2002 $0.87
Dec2001 $0.88

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Albemarle Corp Valuation – February 2016 $ALB
Albemarle Corporation Valuation – November 2015 Update $ALB
Albemarle Corporation Analysis – Initial Coverage $ALB

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Albemarle Corporation Valuation – August 2016 $ALB

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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