Retail Stocks

Fossil Group Inc Valuation – March 2017 $FOSL

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Fossil Group Inc (FOSL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Fossil Group, Inc. is a design, marketing and distribution company that specializes in consumer fashion accessories. The Company’s segments are Americas, Europe and Asia. Each segment includes sales to wholesale and distributor customers, and sales through the Company-owned retail stores and e-commerce activities based on the location of the selling entity. The Americas segment includes sales to customers based in Canada, Latin America and the United States. The Europe segment includes sales to customers based in European countries, the Middle East and Africa. The Asia segment includes sales to customers based in Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. The Company’s principal offerings include a line of men’s and women’s fashion watches and jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, sunglasses and soft accessories. Its brand includes FOSSIL, MICHELE, RELIC, SKAGEN, ZODIAC, ADIDAS, BURBERRY, DIESEL and DKNY.

FOSL Chart

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of FOSL – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $805,898,203 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.25 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -12.21% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 5.51 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.79 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.25 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.65 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.97
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $3.45
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $43.12
MG Value based on 0% Growth $25.28
Market Implied Growth Rate -1.50%
Current Price $16.38
% of Intrinsic Value 475.03%

Fossil Group Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $5.24 in 2013 to an estimated $2.97 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 1.5% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Fossil Group Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $18.91. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 5.51, which was below the industry average of 50.09, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $3.45.

Fossil Group Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $3.45
Graham Number $18.91
PEmg 5.51
Current Ratio 3.25
PB Ratio 0.79
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $1,347,290,000
Total Current Liabilities $414,585,000
Long-Term Debt $609,961,000
Total Assets $2,186,897,000
Intangible Assets $502,387,000
Total Liabilities $1,180,661,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 48,323,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.76
Dec2016 $1.63
Dec2015 $4.51
Dec2014 $7.10
Dec2013 $6.56
Dec2012 $5.59
Dec2011 $4.61
Dec2010 $3.77
Dec2009 $2.07
Dec2008 $2.02
Dec2007 $1.75
Dec2006 $1.13
Dec2005 $1.04
Dec2004 $1.23
Dec2003 $0.92
Dec2002 $0.81
Dec2001 $0.62
Dec2000 $0.76
Dec1999 $0.69
Dec1998 $0.44
Dec1997 $0.18

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.97
Dec2016 $4.41
Dec2015 $5.76
Dec2014 $6.10
Dec2013 $5.24
Dec2012 $4.26
Dec2011 $3.34
Dec2010 $2.52
Dec2009 $1.80
Dec2008 $1.59
Dec2007 $1.32
Dec2006 $1.08
Dec2005 $1.01
Dec2004 $0.95
Dec2003 $0.79
Dec2002 $0.71
Dec2001 $0.62

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2016
10 Low PE Stock Picks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2016
5 Undervalued Stocks for Value Investors with a High Beta – August 2016
10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor – July 2016
10 Low PE Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – July 2016

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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