Canadian Publishing Stocks

Transcontinental Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:TCL.A

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Transcontinental Inc (TSE:TCL.A) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Transcontinental Inc. is a printing company. The Company has operations in print, flexible packaging, publishing and digital media, both in Canada and the United States. The Company’s segments include the Printing and Packaging Sector, and the Media Sector. The Printing and Packaging Sector includes the manufacturing activities of the Company, and generates revenues from various activities, such as the printing of retail flyers, magazines, newspapers, color books, personalized and mass marketing products, and the production of flexible packaging solutions in Canada and the United States. The Media Sector generates revenues through print and digital publishing products, in French and English, of various types, such as newspapers, educational books, specialized publications for professionals, retail promotional content, mass and personalized marketing, mobile and interactive applications, and geotargeted door-to-door and digital distribution services.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-TCL.A – April 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,850,861,058 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.66 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 586.61% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 11.24 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.69 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.66 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.65 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.15
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $82.78
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $31.18
MG Value based on 0% Growth $18.28
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.37%
Current Price $24.16
% of Intrinsic Value 29.19%

Transcontinental Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.2 in 2013 to an estimated $2.15 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.37% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Transcontinental Inc. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $28.17. The company pays a dividend of $0.74 per share, for a yield of 3.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 11.24, which was below the industry average of 12.64, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-4.57.

Transcontinental Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$4.57
Graham Number $28.17
PEmg 11.24
Current Ratio 1.66
PB Ratio 1.69
Current Dividend $0.74
Dividend Yield 3.06%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 15

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 1/1/2017
Total Current Assets $532,800,000
Total Current Liabilities $321,700,000
Long-Term Debt $347,800,000
Total Assets $1,995,800,000
Intangible Assets $720,100,000
Total Liabilities $886,300,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 77,400,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.46
Oct2016 $1.88
Oct2015 $3.35
Oct2014 $1.34
Oct2013 -$0.30
Oct2012 -$2.27
Oct2011 $1.49
Oct2010 $2.06
Oct2009 -$1.02
Oct2008 $0.08
Oct2007 $1.42
Oct2006 $1.56
Oct2005 $1.55
Oct2004 $1.44
Oct2003 $1.60
Oct2002 $1.45
Oct2001 $0.26
Oct2000 $0.82
Oct1999 $0.61
Oct1998 $0.53
Oct1997 $0.44

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.15
Oct2016 $1.60
Oct2015 $1.21
Oct2014 $0.25
Oct2013 -$0.20
Oct2012 -$0.08
Oct2011 $0.95
Oct2010 $0.72
Oct2009 $0.28
Oct2008 $1.02
Oct2007 $1.50
Oct2006 $1.53
Oct2005 $1.43
Oct2004 $1.29
Oct2003 $1.12
Oct2002 $0.83
Oct2001 $0.53

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

News Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $NWS
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Tegna Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $TGNA
Tegna Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $TGNA
Gannett Company Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $GCI
Gannett Co. Inc. (GCI) Quarterly Valuation – May 2014

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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