Apparel Stocks

Ralph Lauren Corp Valuation – April 2017 $RL

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Ralph Lauren Corp (RL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Ralph Lauren Corporation is engaged in the design, marketing and distribution of lifestyle products, including apparel, accessories, home furnishings and other licensed product categories. The Company operates through three segments: Wholesale, Retail and Licensing. Wholesale business consists of sales made to department stores and specialty stores around the world. Retail business consists of sales made directly to consumers through retail channel, which includes Company’s’ retail stores, concession-based shop-within-shops and e-commerce operations around the world. Licensing business consists of royalty-based arrangements, under which the Company licenses to unrelated third parties for specified periods the right to operate retail stores and/or to use its various trademarks in connection with the manufacture and sale of designated products, such as certain apparel, eyewear, fragrances and home furnishings.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of RL – April 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $6,475,824,078 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.64 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 13.35% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.70 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.85 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.64 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.31 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.11
MG Growth Estimate -3.42%
MG Value $8.51
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $74.08
MG Value based on 0% Growth $43.42
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.60%
Current Price $80.21
% of Intrinsic Value 942.96%

Ralph Lauren Corp qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $6.62 in 2013 to an estimated $5.11 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 3.6% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Ralph Lauren Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $43.67. The company pays a dividend of $2 per share, for a yield of 2.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 15.7, which was below the industry average of 32.02, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $8.14.

Ralph Lauren Corp performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $8.14
Graham Number $43.67
PEmg 15.70
Current Ratio 2.64
PB Ratio 1.85
Current Dividend $2.00
Dividend Yield 2.49%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $3,034,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,151,000,000
Long-Term Debt $589,000,000
Total Assets $5,966,000,000
Intangible Assets $1,125,000,000
Total Liabilities $2,356,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 83,300,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.93
Mar2016 $4.62
Mar2015 $7.88
Mar2014 $8.43
Mar2013 $8.00
Mar2012 $7.13
Mar2011 $5.75
Mar2010 $4.73
Mar2009 $4.01
Mar2008 $3.99
Mar2007 $3.73
Mar2006 $2.87
Mar2005 $1.83
Mar2004 $1.69
Mar2003 $1.76
Mar2002 $1.75
Mar2001 $0.58
Mar2000 $1.45
Mar1999 $0.91
Mar1998 $1.20
Mar1997 $0.89

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.11
Mar2016 $6.87
Mar2015 $7.81
Mar2014 $7.45
Mar2013 $6.62
Mar2012 $5.66
Mar2011 $4.76
Mar2010 $4.13
Mar2009 $3.65
Mar2008 $3.26
Mar2007 $2.72
Mar2006 $2.13
Mar2005 $1.68
Mar2004 $1.56
Mar2003 $1.42
Mar2002 $1.23
Mar2001 $0.98

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Ralph Lauren Corp Stock Valuation – February 2016 $RL
10 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 9/26/15
Ralph Lauren Corporation Analysis – September 2015 Update $RL
The Best Companies of the Apparel Industry – June 2015 $GPS $HBI $KORS $RL $VFC
5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor Near 52 Week Lows – August 2015 $BEN $RL $FOSL $PWR $CMI

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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