Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Kroger Company (KR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): The Kroger Co. (Kroger) manufactures and processes food for sale in its supermarkets. The Company operates supermarkets, multi-department stores, jewelry stores and convenience stores throughout the United States. As of January 28, 2017, it had operated approximately 4,000 owned or leased supermarkets, convenience stores, fine jewelry stores, distribution warehouses and food production plants through divisions, subsidiaries or affiliates. These facilities are located throughout the United States. As of January 28, 2017, Kroger operated, either directly or through its subsidiaries, 2,796 supermarkets under a range of local banner names, of which 2,255 had pharmacies and 1,445 had fuel centers. As of January 28, 2017, the Company offered ClickList and Harris Teeter ExpressLane, personalized, order online, pick up at the store services at 637 of its supermarkets. P$$T, Check This Out and Heritage Farm are the three brands. Its other brands include Simple Truth and Simple Truth Organic.
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:
Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?
|Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.|
|1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise||Market Cap > $2Bil||$20,156,636,845||Pass|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 2||0.76||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 10 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Dividend Payments for 10 years prior||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end||228.34%||Pass|
|6. Moderate PEmg Ratio||PEmg < 20||11.52||Pass|
|7. Moderate Price to Assets||PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50||3.40||Pass|
|Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.|
|1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Current Ratio > 1.5||0.76||Fail|
|2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition||Debt to NCA < 1.1||0.00||Fail|
|3. Earnings Stability||Positive EPS for 5 years prior||Pass|
|4. Dividend Record||Currently Pays Dividend||Pass|
|5. Earnings Growth||EPSmg greater than 5 years ago||Pass|
Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value
|MG Growth Estimate||12.41%|
|MG Value based on 3% Growth||$28.44|
|MG Value based on 0% Growth||$16.67|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||1.51%|
|% of Intrinsic Value||34.58%|
Kroger Co qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.
As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.07 in 2014 to an estimated $1.96 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.51% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
At the time of valuation, further research into Kroger Co revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $18.2. The company pays a dividend of $0.45 per share, for a yield of 2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 11.52, which was below the industry average of 36.19, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-21.75.
Kroger Co performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.
Stage 3: Information for Further Research
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$21.75|
|Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth||11|
|ModernGraham tagged articles||Morningstar|
|Google Finance||MSN Money|
|Yahoo Finance||Seeking Alpha|
Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures
|Balance Sheet Information||4/1/2017|
|Total Current Assets||$9,538,000,000|
|Total Current Liabilities||$12,515,000,000|
|Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)||925,000,000|
Earnings Per Share History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$2.03|
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History
|Next Fiscal Year Estimate||$1.96|
Other ModernGraham posts about the company
|Kroger Company Analysis – 2015 Update $KR|
|17 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 7/19/14|
|Kroger Company Annual Valuation – 2014 $KR|
Other ModernGraham posts about related companies
The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. See my current holdings here. This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner. Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.