Apple Inc Valuation – April 2019 #AAPL

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Apple Inc., incorporated on January 3, 1977, designs, manufactures and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers and portable digital music players. The Company sells a range of related software, services, accessories, networking solutions and third-party digital content and applications. The Company’s segments include the Americas, Europe, Greater China, Japan and Rest of Asia Pacific. The Americas segment includes both North and South America. The Europe segment includes European countries, India, the Middle East and Africa. The Greater China segment includes China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. The Rest of Asia Pacific segment includes Australia and the Asian countries not included in the Company’s other operating segments. The Company’s products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple Watch, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, iPhone OS (iOS), OS X and watchOS operating systems, iCloud, Apple Pay and a range of accessory, service and support offerings.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAPL – April 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $928,509,329,542 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.30 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 151.37% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 19.47 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 7.97 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.30 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.86 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $10.11
MG Growth Estimate 6.57%
MG Value $218.81
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $146.65
MG Value based on 0% Growth $85.97
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.48%
Current Price $196.89
% of Intrinsic Value 89.98%

Apple Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $7.03 in 2015 to an estimated $10.11 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 5.48% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Apple Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $71.63. The company pays a dividend of $2.72 per share, for a yield of 1.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.47, which was below the industry average of 35.4, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-24.09.

Apple Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$24.09
Graham Number $71.63
PEmg 19.47
Current Ratio 1.30
PB Ratio 7.97
Current Dividend $2.72
Dividend Yield 1.38%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $140,828,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $108,283,000,000
Long-Term Debt $92,989,000,000
Total Assets $373,719,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $255,827,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 4,773,252,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $10.12
Sep2018 $11.91
Sep2017 $9.21
Sep2016 $8.31
Sep2015 $9.22
Sep2014 $6.45
Sep2013 $5.68
Sep2012 $6.31
Sep2011 $3.95
Sep2010 $2.16
Sep2009 $1.30
Sep2008 $0.97
Sep2007 $0.56
Sep2006 $0.32
Sep2005 $0.22
Sep2004 $0.05
Sep2003 $0.01
Sep2002 $0.01
Sep2001 -$0.01
Sep2000 $0.16
Sep1999 $0.13

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $10.11
Sep2018 $9.75
Sep2017 $8.37
Sep2016 $7.70
Sep2015 $7.03
Sep2014 $5.60
Sep2013 $4.74
Sep2012 $3.83
Sep2011 $2.32
Sep2010 $1.36
Sep2009 $0.86
Sep2008 $0.57
Sep2007 $0.32
Sep2006 $0.18
Sep2005 $0.09
Sep2004 $0.03
Sep2003 $0.04

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Apple Inc Valuation – November 2018 $AAPL
Apple Inc Valuation – February 2018 $AAPL
Apple Inc Valuation – January 2017 $AAPL
Apple Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AAPL
Apple Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AAPL

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Skyworks Solutions Inc Valuation – March 2019 #SWKS
Garmin Ltd Valuation – March 2019 #GRMN
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co Valuation – March 2019 #HPE
Fortive Corp Valuation – March 2019 #FTV
Analog Devices Inc Valuation – March 2019 #ADI
IPG Photonics Corp Valuation – March 2019 #IPGP

Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in AAPL but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – March 2019 #AAP

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Advance Auto Parts, Inc., incorporated on August 1, 2001, provides automotive aftermarket parts in North America, serving do-it-for-me (Professional) and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers. The Company’s stores and branches offer a selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. The Company serves its Professional and DIY customers through various channels ranging from traditional brick and mortar store locations to self-serving e-commerce sites. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated 5,062 total stores and 127 branches primarily under the trade names Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, Carquest and Worldpac. As of December 31, 2016, the Company’s Advance Auto Parts operations consisted of three geographic divisions, which included the operations of the stores operating under the Advance Auto Parts, Carquest and Autopart International trade names. The Company’s e-commerce platforms, primarily consisting of its online Websites and Professional ordering platforms, are part of its integrated operating approach of serving its Professional and DIY customers. The Company’s online Websites allow its DIY customers to pick up merchandise at a store or have their purchases shipped directly to them. The majority of the Company’s online DIY sales are picked up at store locations. Through the Company’s online ordering platforms, Professional customers can place orders with a designated store location for delivery to their places of business or pick-up.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAP – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $12,221,885,012 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.57 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 39.57% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 25.61 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.52 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.57 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.48 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $6.66
MG Growth Estimate 1.58%
MG Value $77.67
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $96.55
MG Value based on 0% Growth $56.60
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.56%
Current Price $170.53
% of Intrinsic Value 219.56%

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.02 in 2015 to an estimated $6.66 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.56% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Advance Auto Parts, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $92.34. The company pays a dividend of $0.24 per share, for a yield of 0.1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 25.61, which was above the industry average of 22.49. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $8.08.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $8.08
Graham Number $92.34
PEmg 25.61
Current Ratio 1.57
PB Ratio 3.52
Current Dividend $0.24
Dividend Yield 0.14%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $6,082,454,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,885,950,000
Long-Term Debt $1,045,720,000
Total Assets $9,040,648,000
Intangible Assets $1,540,830,000
Total Liabilities $5,489,835,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 73,328,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.78
Dec2018 $5.73
Dec2017 $6.42
Dec2016 $6.20
Dec2015 $6.40
Dec2014 $6.71
Dec2013 $5.32
Dec2012 $5.22
Dec2011 $5.11
Dec2010 $3.95
Dec2009 $2.83
Dec2008 $2.49
Dec2007 $2.28
Dec2006 $2.16
Dec2005 $2.13
Dec2004 $1.66
Dec2003 $1.11
Dec2002 $0.60
Dec2001 $0.13
Dec2000 $0.23
Dec1999 -$0.30

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.66
Dec2018 $6.16
Dec2017 $6.32
Dec2016 $6.17
Dec2015 $6.02
Dec2014 $5.64
Dec2013 $4.90
Dec2012 $4.44
Dec2011 $3.81
Dec2010 $3.02
Dec2009 $2.49
Dec2008 $2.26
Dec2007 $2.06
Dec2006 $1.81
Dec2005 $1.46
Dec2004 $1.00
Dec2003 $0.57

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – June 2018 $AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – August 2017 $AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – November 2016 $AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $AAP

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

LKQ Corp Valuation – March 2019 #LKQ
Aptiv PLC Valuation – March 2019 #APTV
Paccar Inc Valuation – March 2019 #PCAR
BorgWarner Inc Valuation – February 2019 $BWA
CarMax Inc Valuation – February 2019 $KMX
Ford Motor Co Valuation – February 2019 $F
General Motors Co Valuation – February 2019 $GM
O’Reilly Automotive Inc Valuation – February 2019 $ORLY
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co Valuation – January 2019 $GT
Genuine Parts Co Valuation – January 2019 $GPC

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Apple Inc Valuation – November 2018 $AAPL

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Apple Inc., incorporated on January 3, 1977, designs, manufactures and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers and portable digital music players. The Company sells a range of related software, services, accessories, networking solutions and third-party digital content and applications. The Company’s segments include the Americas, Europe, Greater China, Japan and Rest of Asia Pacific. The Americas segment includes both North and South America. The Europe segment includes European countries, India, the Middle East and Africa. The Greater China segment includes China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. The Rest of Asia Pacific segment includes Australia and the Asian countries not included in the Company’s other operating segments. The Company’s products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple Watch, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, iPhone OS (iOS), OS X and watchOS operating systems, iCloud, Apple Pay and a range of accessory, service and support offerings.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAPL – November 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

 

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $970,291,506,431 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.12 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 174.94% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 18.44 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 9.25 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.12 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 6.48 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

 

EPSmg $11.09
MG Growth Estimate 8.65%
MG Value $286.14
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $160.81
MG Value based on 0% Growth $94.27
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.97%
Current Price $204.47
% of Intrinsic Value 71.46%

Apple Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $7.03 in 2015 to an estimated $11.09 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.97% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Apple Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $81.34. The company pays a dividend of $2.72 per share, for a yield of 1.3% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 18.44, which was below the industry average of 38.82, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-26.25.

Apple Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$26.25
Graham Number $81.34
PEmg 18.44
Current Ratio 1.12
PB Ratio 9.25
Current Dividend $2.72
Dividend Yield 1.33%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

Useful Links:

 

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $131,339,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $116,866,000,000
Long-Term Debt $93,735,000,000
Total Assets $365,725,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $258,578,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 4,847,547,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $13.05
Sep2018 $11.91
Sep2017 $9.21
Sep2016 $8.31
Sep2015 $9.22
Sep2014 $6.45
Sep2013 $5.68
Sep2012 $6.31
Sep2011 $3.95
Sep2010 $2.16
Sep2009 $1.30
Sep2008 $0.97
Sep2007 $0.56
Sep2006 $0.32
Sep2005 $0.22
Sep2004 $0.05
Sep2003 $0.01
Sep2002 $0.01
Sep2001 -$0.01
Sep2000 $0.16
Sep1999 $0.13

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $11.09
Sep2018 $9.75
Sep2017 $8.37
Sep2016 $7.70
Sep2015 $7.03
Sep2014 $5.60
Sep2013 $4.74
Sep2012 $3.83
Sep2011 $2.32
Sep2010 $1.36
Sep2009 $0.86
Sep2008 $0.57
Sep2007 $0.32
Sep2006 $0.18
Sep2005 $0.09
Sep2004 $0.03
Sep2003 $0.04

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Apple Inc Valuation – February 2018 $AAPL
Apple Inc Valuation – January 2017 $AAPL
Apple Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AAPL
Apple Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AAPL
My Personal Holdings: Apple Inc. – September 2015 Update $AAPL

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Cray Inc Valuation – August 2018 $CRAY
Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc Valuation – August 2018 $KLIC
Keysight Technologies Inc Valuation – August 2018 $KEYS
Semtech Corp Valuation – August 2018 $SMTC
Cohu Inc Valuation – August 2018 $COHU

Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in AAPL but did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – June 2018 $AAP

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Advance Auto Parts, Inc., incorporated on August 1, 2001, provides automotive aftermarket parts in North America, serving do-it-for-me (Professional) and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers. The Company’s stores and branches offer a selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. The Company serves its Professional and DIY customers through various channels ranging from traditional brick and mortar store locations to self-serving e-commerce sites. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated 5,062 total stores and 127 branches primarily under the trade names Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, Carquest and Worldpac. As of December 31, 2016, the Company’s Advance Auto Parts operations consisted of three geographic divisions, which included the operations of the stores operating under the Advance Auto Parts, Carquest and Autopart International trade names. The Company’s e-commerce platforms, primarily consisting of its online Websites and Professional ordering platforms, are part of its integrated operating approach of serving its Professional and DIY customers. The Company’s online Websites allow its DIY customers to pick up merchandise at a store or have their purchases shipped directly to them. The majority of the Company’s online DIY sales are picked up at store locations. Through the Company’s online ordering platforms, Professional customers can place orders with a designated store location for delivery to their places of business or pick-up.

AAP Chart

AAP data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAP – June 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $10,032,004,293 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.61 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 61.82% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 21.22 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.87 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.61 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.49 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $6.46
MG Growth Estimate 2.17%
MG Value $82.90
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $93.66
MG Value based on 0% Growth $54.90
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.36%
Current Price $137.07
% of Intrinsic Value 165.35%

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.64 in 2014 to an estimated $6.46 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 6.36% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Advance Auto Parts, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $82.94. The company pays a dividend of $0.24 per share, for a yield of 0.2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 21.22, which was above the industry average of 17.9. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $7.4.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $7.40
Graham Number $82.94
PEmg 21.22
Current Ratio 1.61
PB Ratio 2.87
Current Dividend $0.24
Dividend Yield 0.18%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 4/1/2018
Total Current Assets $5,617,516,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,480,139,000
Long-Term Debt $1,044,755,000
Total Assets $8,614,953,000
Intangible Assets $1,576,807,000
Total Liabilities $5,068,332,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 74,205,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.62
Dec2017 $6.42
Dec2016 $6.20
Dec2015 $6.40
Dec2014 $6.71
Dec2013 $5.32
Dec2012 $5.22
Dec2011 $5.11
Dec2010 $3.95
Dec2009 $2.83
Dec2008 $2.49
Dec2007 $2.28
Dec2006 $2.16
Dec2005 $2.13
Dec2004 $1.66
Dec2003 $1.11
Dec2002 $0.60
Dec2001 $0.13
Dec2000 $0.23
Dec1999 -$0.30
Dec1998 -$0.04

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.46
Dec2017 $6.32
Dec2016 $6.17
Dec2015 $6.02
Dec2014 $5.64
Dec2013 $4.90
Dec2012 $4.44
Dec2011 $3.81
Dec2010 $3.02
Dec2009 $2.49
Dec2008 $2.26
Dec2007 $2.06
Dec2006 $1.81
Dec2005 $1.46
Dec2004 $1.00
Dec2003 $0.57
Dec2002 $0.24

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – August 2017 $AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – November 2016 $AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $AAP

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

LKQ Corporation – June 2018 $LKQ
Aptiv PLC Valuation – Initial Coverage May 2018 $APTV
BorgWarner Inc Valuation – April 2018 $BWA
CarMax Inc Valuation – April 2018 $KMX
Ford Motor Company Valuation – April 2018 $F
General Motors Co Valuation – April 2018 $GM
O’Reilly Automotive Inc Valuation – April 2018 $ORLY
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co Valuation – March 2018 $GT
Genuine Parts Co Valuation – March 2018 $GPC
AutoZone Inc Valuation – February 2018 $AZO

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Apple Inc Valuation – February 2018 $AAPL

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Apple Inc (AAPL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Apple, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of mobile communication, media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players. It operates through the following geographical segments: Americas, Europe, Greater China, Japan, and Rest of Asia Pacific. The Americas segment includes both North and South America. The Europe segment consists of European countries, as well as India, the Middle East, and Africa. The Greater China segment comprises of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The Rest of Asia Pacific segment includes Australia and Asian countries not included in the reportable operating segments of the company. The company was founded by Steven Paul Jobs, Ronald Gerald Wayne, and Stephen G. Wozniak on April 1, 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, CA.

AAPL Chart

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAPL – February 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $873,716,604,806 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.24 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 283.01% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 18.31 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 6.33 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.24 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 3.71 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $9.40
MG Growth Estimate 10.20%
MG Value $271.73
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $136.36
MG Value based on 0% Growth $79.93
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.91%
Current Price $172.19
% of Intrinsic Value 63.37%

Apple Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.6 in 2014 to an estimated $9.4 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.91% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Apple Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $80.01. The company pays a dividend of $2.4 per share, for a yield of 1.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 18.31, which was below the industry average of 41.95, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-23.81.

Apple Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$23.81
Graham Number $80.01
PEmg 18.34
Current Ratio 1.24
PB Ratio 6.34
Current Dividend $2.40
Dividend Yield 1.39%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $143,810,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $115,788,000,000
Long-Term Debt $103,922,000,000
Total Assets $406,794,000,000
Intangible Assets $8,038,000,000
Total Liabilities $266,595,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 5,157,787,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $10.88
Sep2017 $9.21
Sep2016 $8.31
Sep2015 $9.22
Sep2014 $6.45
Sep2013 $5.68
Sep2012 $6.31
Sep2011 $3.95
Sep2010 $2.16
Sep2009 $1.30
Sep2008 $0.97
Sep2007 $0.56
Sep2006 $0.32
Sep2005 $0.22
Sep2004 $0.05
Sep2003 $0.01
Sep2002 $0.01
Sep2001 -$0.01
Sep2000 $0.16
Sep1999 $0.13
Sep1998 $0.08

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $9.40
Sep2017 $8.37
Sep2016 $7.70
Sep2015 $7.03
Sep2014 $5.60
Sep2013 $4.74
Sep2012 $3.83
Sep2011 $2.32
Sep2010 $1.36
Sep2009 $0.86
Sep2008 $0.57
Sep2007 $0.32
Sep2006 $0.18
Sep2005 $0.09
Sep2004 $0.03
Sep2003 $0.04
Sep2002 $0.06

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Apple Inc Valuation – January 2017 $AAPL
Apple Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AAPL
Apple Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AAPL
My Personal Holdings: Apple Inc. – September 2015 Update $AAPL
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/20/14

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Vicor Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $VICR
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Diebold Nixdorf Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DBD
Tech Data Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $TECD
Teledyne Technologies Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TDY
Skyworks Solutions Inc Valuation – April 2017 $SWKS

Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in AAPL but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – August 2017 $AAP

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive aftermarket parts in North America, serving do-it-for-me (Professional) and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers. The Company’s stores and branches offer a selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. It serves through various channels ranging from traditional brick and mortar store locations to self-serving e-commerce sites. As of December 31, 2016, it operated 5,062 total stores and 127 branches primarily under the trade names Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, Carquest and Worldpac. As of December 31, 2016, its Advance Auto Parts operations consisted of three geographic divisions, which included the operations of the stores operating under the Advance Auto Parts, Carquest and Autopart International trade names.

AAP Chart

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAP – August 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $7,076,036,443 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.48 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 91.48% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.24 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.27 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.48 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.60 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.90
MG Growth Estimate 3.05%
MG Value $86.12
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $85.54
MG Value based on 0% Growth $50.14
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.87%
Current Price $95.80
% of Intrinsic Value 111.24%

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the  low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the low current ratio.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.9 in 2013 to an estimated $5.9 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 3.87% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Advance Auto Parts, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $67.69.  The company pays a dividend of $0.24 per share, for a yield of 0.3%  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.24, which was below the industry average of 18.18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $0.23.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.23
Graham Number $67.69
PEmg 16.24
Current Ratio 1.48
PB Ratio 2.27
Current Dividend $0.24
Dividend Yield 0.25%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $5,326,215,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,598,327,000
Long-Term Debt $1,043,690,000
Total Assets $8,437,413,000
Intangible Assets $1,612,795,000
Total Liabilities $5,309,136,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 74,093,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.15
Dec2016 $6.20
Dec2015 $6.40
Dec2014 $6.71
Dec2013 $5.32
Dec2012 $5.22
Dec2011 $5.11
Dec2010 $3.95
Dec2009 $2.83
Dec2008 $2.49
Dec2007 $2.28
Dec2006 $2.16
Dec2005 $2.13
Dec2004 $1.66
Dec2003 $1.11
Dec2002 $0.60
Dec2001 $0.13
Dec2000 $0.23
Dec1999 -$0.30
Dec1998 -$0.04

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.90
Dec2016 $6.17
Dec2015 $6.02
Dec2014 $5.64
Dec2013 $4.90
Dec2012 $4.44
Dec2011 $3.81
Dec2010 $3.02
Dec2009 $2.49
Dec2008 $2.26
Dec2007 $2.06
Dec2006 $1.81
Dec2005 $1.46
Dec2004 $1.00
Dec2003 $0.57
Dec2002 $0.24
Dec2001 $0.04

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – November 2016 $AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $AAP

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Apple Inc Valuation – January 2017 $AAPL

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – January 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Apple Inc (AAPL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Apple Inc. (Apple) designs, manufactures and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players, and a variety of related software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications. The Company’s products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iOS and OS X operating systems, iCloud, and a variety of accessory, service and support offerings. The Company also delivers digital content and applications through the iTunes Store, App StoreSM, iBookstoreSM, and Mac App Store. The Company distributes its products worldwide through its retail stores, online stores, and direct sales force, as well as through third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and value-added resellers. In February 2012, the Company acquired app-search engine Chomp.

AAPL Chart

AAPL data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAPL – January 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

 

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $631,200,766,813 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.35 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 477.43% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.03 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.15 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.35 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.71 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $7.98
MG Growth Estimate 10.25%
MG Value $231.48
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $115.74
MG Value based on 0% Growth $67.85
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.27%
Current Price $119.97
% of Intrinsic Value 51.83%

Apple Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.74 in 2013 to an estimated $7.98 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.27% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Apple Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $65.98. The company pays a dividend of $2.18 per share, for a yield of 1.8% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 15.03, which was below the industry average of 28.12, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-15.74.

Apple Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.74
Graham Number $65.98
PEmg 15.03
Current Ratio 1.35
PB Ratio 5.15
Current Dividend $2.18
Dividend Yield 1.82%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

Useful Links:

 

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $106,869,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $79,006,000,000
Long-Term Debt $75,427,000,000
Total Assets $321,686,000,000
Intangible Assets $8,620,000,000
Total Liabilities $193,437,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 5,500,281,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.05
Sep2016 $8.31
Sep2015 $9.22
Sep2014 $6.45
Sep2013 $5.68
Sep2012 $6.31
Sep2011 $3.95
Sep2010 $2.16
Sep2009 $1.30
Sep2008 $0.97
Sep2007 $0.56
Sep2006 $0.32
Sep2005 $0.22
Sep2004 $0.05
Sep2003 $0.01
Sep2002 $0.01
Sep2001 -$0.01
Sep2000 $0.16
Sep1999 $0.13
Sep1998 $0.08
Sep1997 -$0.30

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.98
Sep2016 $7.70
Sep2015 $7.03
Sep2014 $5.60
Sep2013 $4.74
Sep2012 $3.83
Sep2011 $2.32
Sep2010 $1.36
Sep2009 $0.86
Sep2008 $0.57
Sep2007 $0.32
Sep2006 $0.18
Sep2005 $0.09
Sep2004 $0.03
Sep2003 $0.04
Sep2002 $0.06
Sep2001 $0.06

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Apple Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AAPL
Apple Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AAPL
My Personal Holdings: Apple Inc. – September 2015 Update $AAPL
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/20/14
Apple Inc. Quarterly Valuation – December 2014 $AAPL

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Silicon Laboratories Valuation – Initial Coverage $SLAB
Itron Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $ITRI
Celestica Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CLS
Intersil Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $ISIL
iRobot Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $IRBT
Advanced Micro Devices Inc Valuation – January 2017 $AMD
IPG Photonics Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $IPGP
Ciena Corporation Valuation – Initial Coverage $CIEN
ScanSource Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SCSC
Cognex Corporation Valuation – Initial Coverage $CGNX

Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in Apple Inc (AAPL) but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – November 2016 $AAP

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive aftermarket parts in North America, serving do-it-for-me (commercial) and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers, as well as independently owned operators. The Company’s stores and branches offer a selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. The Company also offers other miscellaneous offerings, including e-services. The Company operates approximately 5,170 total stores and over 120 branches, which operate in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands under the names Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International (AI), Carquest and Worldpac. The Company serves its commercial customers and DIY customers through various channels ranging from traditional brick and mortar store locations to self-serving e-commerce sites.

AAP Chart

AAP data by YCharts

[level-free]
To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[not-level-free]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

moderngraham-valuation-of-aap-november-2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $11,703,896,847 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.37 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 156.45% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 26.08 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.20 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.37 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.73 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

aap-value-chart-november-2016

EPSmg $6.23
MG Growth Estimate 6.08%
MG Value $128.71
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $90.37
MG Value based on 0% Growth $52.98
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.79%
Current Price $162.57
% of Intrinsic Value 126.31%

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the low current ratio. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.44 in 2012 to an estimated $6.23 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.79% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Advance Auto Parts, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $74.61. The company pays a dividend of $0.24 per share, for a yield of 0.1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 26.08, which was above the industry average of 17.79. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-4.02.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

aap-charts-november-2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$4.02
Graham Number $74.61
PEmg 26.08
Current Ratio 1.37
PB Ratio 4.20
Current Dividend $0.24
Dividend Yield 0.15%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $5,262,126,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,837,351,000
Long-Term Debt $1,042,633,000
Total Assets $8,414,645,000
Intangible Assets $1,643,753,000
Total Liabilities $5,558,924,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 73,860,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.38
Dec2015 $6.40
Dec2014 $6.71
Dec2013 $5.32
Dec2012 $5.22
Dec2011 $5.11
Dec2010 $3.95
Dec2009 $2.83
Dec2008 $2.49
Dec2007 $2.28
Dec2006 $2.16
Dec2005 $2.13
Dec2004 $1.66
Dec2003 $1.11
Dec2002 $0.60
Dec2001 $0.13
Dec2000 $0.23
Dec1999 -$0.30
Dec1998 -$0.04

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.23
Dec2015 $6.02
Dec2014 $5.64
Dec2013 $4.90
Dec2012 $4.44
Dec2011 $3.81
Dec2010 $3.02
Dec2009 $2.49
Dec2008 $2.26
Dec2007 $2.06
Dec2006 $1.81
Dec2005 $1.46
Dec2004 $1.00
Dec2003 $0.57
Dec2002 $0.24
Dec2001 $0.04
Dec2000 -$0.01

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Advance Auto Parts Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $AAP

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Genuine Parts Co Valuation – July 2016 $GPC
Johnson Controls Inc Valuation – July 2016 $JCI
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co Valuation – July 2016 $GT
Harley-Davidson Inc Valuation – June 2016 $HOG
Autozone Inc Valuation – June 2016 $AZO

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Apple Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AAPL

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Apple Inc (AAPL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Apple Inc. (Apple) designs, manufactures and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players, and a variety of related software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications. The Company’s products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iOS and OS X operating systems, iCloud, and a variety of accessory, service and support offerings. The Company also delivers digital content and applications through the iTunes Store, App StoreSM, iBookstoreSM, and Mac App Store. The Company distributes its products worldwide through its retail stores, online stores, and direct sales force, as well as through third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and value-added resellers. In February 2012, the Company acquired app-search engine Chomp.

AAPL Chart

AAPL data by YCharts

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAPL – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $596,470,620,817 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.31 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 743.30% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 14.30 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.73 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.31 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 3.09 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

AAPL value chart August 2016

EPSmg $7.65
MG Growth Estimate 14.98%
MG Value $294.16
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $110.93
MG Value based on 0% Growth $65.03
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.90%
Current Price $109.38
% of Intrinsic Value 37.18%

Apple Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.83 in 2012 to an estimated $7.65 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.9% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Apple Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $65.67. The company pays a dividend of $2.13 per share, for a yield of 1.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.3, which was below the industry average of 22.64, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-15.59.

Apple Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

AAPL charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.59
Graham Number $65.67
PEmg 14.30
Current Ratio 1.31
PB Ratio 4.73
Current Dividend $2.13
Dividend Yield 1.95%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Total Current Assets $93,761,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $71,486,000,000
Long-Term Debt $68,939,000,000
Total Assets $305,602,000,000
Intangible Assets $8,767,000,000
Total Liabilities $179,061,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 5,472,781,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.17
Sep2015 $9.22
Sep2014 $6.45
Sep2013 $5.68
Sep2012 $6.31
Sep2011 $3.95
Sep2010 $2.16
Sep2009 $1.30
Sep2008 $0.97
Sep2007 $0.56
Sep2006 $0.32
Sep2005 $0.22
Sep2004 $0.05
Sep2003 $0.01
Sep2002 $0.01
Sep2001 -$0.01
Sep2000 $0.16
Sep1999 $0.13
Sep1998 $0.08
Sep1997 -$0.30
Sep1996 -$0.24

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.65
Sep2015 $7.03
Sep2014 $5.60
Sep2013 $4.74
Sep2012 $3.83
Sep2011 $2.32
Sep2010 $1.36
Sep2009 $0.86
Sep2008 $0.57
Sep2007 $0.32
Sep2006 $0.18
Sep2005 $0.09
Sep2004 $0.03
Sep2003 $0.04
Sep2002 $0.06
Sep2001 $0.06
Sep2000 $0.05

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Apple Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AAPL
My Personal Holdings: Apple Inc. – September 2015 Update $AAPL
My Personal Holdings: Apple Inc. – September 2015 Update $AAPL
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/20/14
Apple Inc. Quarterly Valuation – December 2014 $AAPL

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Ametek Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AME
MTS Systems Corp Valuation – July 2016 $MTSC
Seagate Technology PLC Valuation – July 2016 $STX
Broadcom Limited Valuation – July 2016 $AVGO
Microchip Technology Inc Valuation – July 2016 $MCHP
Jabil Circuit Inc Valuation – July 2016 $JBL
KLA-Tencor Corp Valuation – July 2016 $KLAC
Linear Technology Corp Valuation – July 2016 $LLTC
Arrow Electronics Inc Valuation – July 2016 $ARW
Lam Research Corp Valuation – June 2016 $LRCX

Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in Apple Inc (AAPL) but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Apple Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AAPL

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – February 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Apple Inc (AAPL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Apple Inc. (Apple) designs, manufactures and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players, and a variety of related software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications. The Company’s products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iOS and OS X operating systems, iCloud, and a variety of accessory, service and support offerings. The Company also delivers digital content and applications through the iTunes Store, App StoreSM, iBookstoreSM, and Mac App Store. The Company distributes its products worldwide through its retail stores, online stores, and direct sales force, as well as through third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and value-added resellers. In February 2012, the Company acquired app-search engine Chomp.

[level-free]

To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[not-level-free]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAPL

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $512,721,279,857 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.00 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 752.14% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 12.29 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.14 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.00 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 418.93 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

AAPL value chart February 2016

EPSmg $7.73
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $297.73
Opinion Undervalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $112.13
MG Value based on 0% Growth $65.73
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.89%
Current Price $95.01
% of Intrinsic Value 31.91%

Apple Inc does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, short dividend history, and the high PB ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned by the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.83 in 2012 to an estimated $7.73 for 2016.  This level of earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.89% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

AAPL charts February 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.87
Graham Number $66.20
PEmg 12.29
Current Ratio 1.00
PB Ratio 4.14
Dividend Yield 2.14%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

 

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Dec2015
Total Current Assets $76,219,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $76,092,000,000
Long-Term Debt $53,204,000,000
Total Assets $293,284,000,000
Intangible Assets $9,126,000,000
Total Liabilities $165,017,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 5,594,127,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.42
Sep2015 $9.22
Sep2014 $6.45
Sep2013 $5.68
Sep2012 $6.31
Sep2011 $3.95
Sep2010 $2.16
Sep2009 $1.30
Sep2008 $0.97
Sep2007 $0.56
Sep2006 $0.32
Sep2005 $0.22
Sep2004 $0.05
Sep2003 $0.01
Sep2002 $0.01
Sep2001 -$0.01
Sep2000 $0.16
Sep1999 $0.13
Sep1998 $0.08
Sep1997 -$0.30
Sep1996 -$0.24

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.73
Sep2015 $7.03
Sep2014 $5.60
Sep2013 $4.74
Sep2012 $3.83
Sep2011 $2.32
Sep2010 $1.36
Sep2009 $0.86
Sep2008 $0.57
Sep2007 $0.32
Sep2006 $0.18
Sep2005 $0.09
Sep2004 $0.03
Sep2003 $0.04
Sep2002 $0.06
Sep2001 $0.06
Sep2000 $0.05

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

My Personal Holdings: Apple Inc. – September 2015 Update $AAPL
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/20/14
Apple Inc. Quarterly Valuation – December 2014 $AAPL
23 Companies to Research This Week – 9/13/14

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Ametek Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $AME
MTS Systems Corp Valuation – February 2016 Update $MTSC
Linear Technology Corp Valuation – January 2016 Update $LLTC
Seagate Technology PLC Valuation – January 2016 Update $STX
Microchip Technology Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $MCHP
Avago Technologies Ltd Valuation – January 2016 Update $AVGO
KLA-Tencor Corp Valuation – January 2016 Update $KLAC
Lam Research Corp Valuation – January 2016 Update $LRCX
Amphenol Corporation Valuation – January 2016 Update $APH
Arrow Electronics Inc Valuation – December 2015 Update $ARW

Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in Apple Inc but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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