AbbVie Inc Valuation – March 2019 #ABBV

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): AbbVie Inc. (AbbVie), incorporated on April 10, 2012, is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture and sale of a range of pharmaceutical products. Its products are focused on treating conditions, such as chronic autoimmune diseases in rheumatology, gastroenterology and dermatology; oncology, including blood cancers; virology, including hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); neurological disorders, such as Parkinson’s disease and multiple sclerosis; metabolic diseases, including thyroid disease and complications associated with cystic fibrosis, and other serious health conditions. It offers products in various categories, including HUMIRA (adalimumab), Oncology products, Virology Products, Additional Virology products, Metabolics/Hormones products, Endocrinology products and other products.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ABBV – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $118,154,226,149 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.98 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 363.28% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.46 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 -14.24 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.98 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -119.05 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.18
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $199.51
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $75.14
MG Value based on 0% Growth $44.05
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.48%
Current Price $80.10
% of Intrinsic Value 40.15%

AbbVie Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.3 in 2015 to an estimated $5.18 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.48% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into AbbVie Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $3.59 per share, for a yield of 4.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 15.46, which was below the industry average of 47.6, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-33.88.

AbbVie Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$33.88
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 15.46
Current Ratio 0.98
PB Ratio -14.24
Current Dividend $3.59
Dividend Yield 4.48%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $16,945,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $17,239,000,000
Long-Term Debt $35,002,000,000
Total Assets $59,352,000,000
Intangible Assets $36,896,000,000
Total Liabilities $67,798,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,501,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.56
Dec2018 $3.66
Dec2017 $3.30
Dec2016 $3.63
Dec2015 $3.13
Dec2014 $1.10
Dec2013 $2.56
Dec2012 $3.35

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.18
Dec2018 $3.32
Dec2017 $3.01
Dec2016 $2.83
Dec2015 $2.30
Dec2014 $1.72
Dec2013 $1.75
Dec2012 $1.12

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Best Dividend Paying Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – May 2018
AbbVie Inc Valuation – April 2018 $ABBV
10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – January 2017
9 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 7/23/16
AbbVie Inc Valuation – July 2016 $ABBV

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Incyte Corp Valuation – February 2019 $INCY
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $REGN
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $ALXN
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $VRTX
Perrigo Company Valuation – February 2019 $PRGO
Eli Lilly and Co Valuation – January 2019 $LLY
Zoetis Inc Valuation – January 2019 $ZTS
Gilead Sciences Inc Valuation – January 2019 $GILD
Pfizer Inc Valuation – November 2018 $PFE

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

AbbVie Inc Valuation – April 2018 $ABBV

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): AbbVie Inc. (AbbVie), incorporated on April 10, 2012, is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture and sale of a range of pharmaceutical products. Its products are focused on treating conditions, such as chronic autoimmune diseases in rheumatology, gastroenterology and dermatology; oncology, including blood cancers; virology, including hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); neurological disorders, such as Parkinson’s disease and multiple sclerosis; metabolic diseases, including thyroid disease and complications associated with cystic fibrosis, and other serious health conditions. It offers products in various categories, including HUMIRA (adalimumab), Oncology products, Virology Products, Additional Virology products, Metabolics/Hormones products, Endocrinology products and other products.

ABBV Chart

ABBV data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ABBV – April 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $150,180,002,407 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.28 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 193.58% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 20.97 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 29.82 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.28 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.51
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $173.76
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $65.44
MG Value based on 0% Growth $38.36
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.24%
Current Price $94.65
% of Intrinsic Value 54.47%

AbbVie Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the low current ratio. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.19 in 2014 to an estimated $4.51 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 6.24% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into AbbVie Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $22.85. The company pays a dividend of $2.56 per share, for a yield of 2.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 20.97, which was below the industry average of 29.14, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-27.69.

AbbVie Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$27.69
Graham Number $22.85
PEmg 20.97
Current Ratio 1.28
PB Ratio 29.82
Current Dividend $2.56
Dividend Yield 2.70%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $21,223,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $16,641,000,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $70,786,000,000
Intangible Assets $43,344,000,000
Total Liabilities $65,689,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,606,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.25
Dec2017 $3.30
Dec2016 $3.63
Dec2015 $3.13
Dec2014 $1.10
Dec2013 $2.56
Dec2012 $3.35
Dec2011 $2.18
Dec2010 $2.65

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.51
Dec2017 $3.01
Dec2016 $2.83
Dec2015 $2.44
Dec2014 $2.19
Dec2013 $2.54
Dec2012 $2.23
Dec2011 $1.43
Dec2010 $0.88

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/23/15
Abbvie Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $ABBV
34 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/7/15
Abbvie Inc. Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $ABBV
15 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/1/14

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Eli Lilly and Co. Valuation – March 2018 $LLY
Zoetis Inc Valuation – March 2018 $ZTS
Gilead Sciences Inc Valuation – March 2018 $GILD
Pfizer Inc Valuation – February 2018 $PFE
Merck & Co Inc Valuation – February 2018 $MRK
Johnson & Johnson Valuation – February 2018 $JNJ
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Valuation – September 2017 $BMY
Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $MNTA
Depomed Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DEPO
Endo International PLC Valuation – July 2017 $ENDP

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

AbbVie Inc Valuation – July 2016 $ABBV

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how AbbVie Inc (ABBV) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): AbbVie Inc. (AbbVie) is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops and markets therapies that address a range of diseases. The Company operates in pharmaceutical products segment. Its products are focused on treating conditions, such as chronic autoimmune diseases, in rheumatology, gastroenterology and dermatology; oncology, including blood cancers; virology, including hepatitis C (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); neurological disorders, such as Parkinson’s disease; metabolic diseases, including thyroid disease and complications associated with cystic fibrosis, as well as other serious health conditions. AbbVie also has a pipeline of new medicines, including over 50 compounds or indications, such as immunology, virology/liver disease, oncology, neurological diseases and women’s health. Its product portfolio includes HUMIRA, IMBRUVICA, HCV products, additional virology products, metabolics/hormones products, endocrinology products and other products.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ABBV – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $102,169,412,158 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.56 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 29466.67% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 20.03 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 22.19 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.56 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

ABBV value chart July 2016

EPSmg $3.17
MG Growth Estimate 6.32%
MG Value $66.90
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $45.91
MG Value based on 0% Growth $26.91
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.76%
Current Price $63.41
% of Intrinsic Value 94.79%

AbbVie Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.23 in 2012 to an estimated $3.17 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 5.76% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

AbbVie Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

ABBV charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$19.97
Graham Number $17.31
PEmg 20.03
Current Ratio 1.56
PB Ratio 22.19
Current Dividend $2.10
Dividend Yield 3.31%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $16,622,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $10,662,000,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $53,720,000,000
Intangible Assets $32,786,000,000
Total Liabilities $49,077,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,625,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.64
Dec2015 $3.13
Dec2014 $1.10
Dec2013 $2.56
Dec2012 $3.35
Dec2011 $2.18
Dec2010 $2.65

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.17
Dec2015 $2.44
Dec2014 $2.19
Dec2013 $2.54
Dec2012 $2.23
Dec2011 $1.43
Dec2010 $0.88

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

30 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/23/15
Abbvie Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $ABBV
34 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/7/15
Abbvie Inc. Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $ABBV
15 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/1/14

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Gilead Sciences Inc Valuation – July 2016 $GILD
Eli Lilly and Company Valuation – July 2016 $LLY
Zoetis Inc Valuation – June 2016 $ZTS
Merck & Co Inc Valuation – March 2016 $MRK
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Valuation – February 2016 $BMY
Amgen Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AMGN
Merck & Co Inc Valuation – March 2016 $MRK
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Valuation – February 2016 $BMY
Amgen Inc Valuation – February 2016 $AMGN
Pfizer Inc Valuation – February 2016 $PFE

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Abbvie Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $ABBV

logo_abbvieBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – May 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Abbvie Inc. (ABBV) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): AbbVie Inc. (AbbVie) is a global research-based pharmaceuticals company. The Company’s products are used to treat chronic autoimmune diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and Crohn’s disease; human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); endometriosis; thyroid disease; Parkinson’s disease, and complications associated with chronic kidney disease and cystic fibrosis, among other health conditions, such as low testosterone. AbbVie’s portfolio of products includes HUMIRA, Synthroid, AndroGel, Creon, Kaletra, Norvir, Lupron, Niaspan, TriCor, TRILIPIX, Synagis, Duodopa, Duopa, Zemplar and Sevoflurane AbbVie also has a pipeline of new medicines, including more than 20 compounds or indications in Phase II or Phase III development across medical specialties as immunology, virology/liver disease, oncology, renal disease, neurological diseases and women’s health. It markets medicines in approximately 170 countries.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 2/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $65.98
MG Value $38.67
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $40.42
Value Based on 0% Growth $23.69
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.59%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$6.17
PEmg 23.67
Current Ratio 1.39
PB Ratio 77.05

Balance Sheet – March 2015

Current Assets $15,408,000,000
Current Liabilities $11,050,000,000
Total Debt $10,683,000,000
Total Assets $26,699,000,000
Intangible Assets $7,012,000,000
Total Liabilities $25,322,000,000
Outstanding Shares 1,608,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $4.17
2014 $1.10
2013 $2.56
2012 $3.35
2011 $2.18
2010 $2.65
2009 $2.94
2008 $2.57
2007 $0.00
2006 $0.00
2005 $0.00

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $2.79
2014 $2.19
2013 $2.73
2012 $2.79
2011 $2.36
2010 $2.18

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Abbvie Inc. is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, the short operating history as a stand-alone company, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.36 in 2011 to only an estimated $2.79 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.59% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value well below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Abbvie Inc. (ABBV)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Abbvie Inc. Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $ABBV

logo_abbvieBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – January 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Abbvie Inc. (ABBV) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): AbbVie Inc. (AbbVie) is a global research-based pharmaceuticals company. The Company’s products are used to treat chronic autoimmune diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and Crohn’s disease; human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); endometriosis; thyroid disease; Parkinson’s disease, and complications associated with chronic kidney disease and cystic fibrosis, among other health conditions, such as low testosterone. AbbVie’s portfolio of products includes HUMIRA, Synthroid, AndroGel, Creon, Kaletra, Norvir, Lupron, Niaspan, TriCor, TRILIPIX, Synagis, Duodopa, Duopa, Zemplar and Sevoflurane AbbVie also has a pipeline of new medicines, including more than 20 compounds or indications in Phase II or Phase III development across medical specialties as immunology, virology/liver disease, oncology, renal disease, neurological diseases and women’s health. It markets medicines in approximately 170 countries.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 2/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $56.90
MG Value $18.75
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $31.71
Value Based on 0% Growth $18.59
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.76%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$3.88
PEmg 26.02
Current Ratio 2.65
PB Ratio 19.72

Balance Sheet – September 2014

Current Assets $17,555,000,000
Current Liabilities $6,635,000,000
Total Debt $14,469,000,000
Total Assets $28,454,000,000
Intangible Assets $7,542,000,000
Total Liabilities $23,809,000,000
Outstanding Shares 1,610,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 $1.10
2013 $2.56
2012 $3.35
2011 $2.18
2010 $2.65
2009 $2.94
2008 $2.57

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 $2.19
2013 $2.73
2012 $2.79
2011 $2.36
2010 $2.18
2009 $1.67

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Abbvie Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not for the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the lack of earnings stability over the last ten years, short operating and dividend history as a stand alone company, along with the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor’s only initial concern is the level of debt relative to net current assets.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.18 in 2010 to an estimated $2.19 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.76% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Abbvie Inc. (ABBV) for greater perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Abbvie Inc. (ABBV)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Abbvie Inc. (ABBV) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Abbvie (ABBV) Annual Valuation

logo_abbvie

Abbvie is a relatively young company in the sense that it has not been a stand-alone publicly traded company for very long.  Intelligent Investors must be extremely cautious when evaluating such companies, because the financial information available may not be reliable enough to come to conclusions about the company.  Spin-offs in particular present difficult valuation situations because the earnings data inherently presents the possibility of speculating (i.e. would the company have achieved these reported results if it had been a stand-alone company at the time?).  As a result, Intelligent Investors must base the analysis completely on the fundamentals, and those looking to avoid as much risk as possible may wish to avoid the company altogether.  The ModernGraham analysis is intended to compile information in order to compare an investment opportunity against another, and what follows is a specific look at how Abbvie fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): AbbVie Inc. (AbbVie) is a research-based pharmaceuticals company. The Company discovers, develops, and commercializes advanced therapies. AbbVie’s portfolio of products include a line of adult and pediatric pharmaceuticals, which includes HUMIRA, metabolics/hormones products, virology products, endocrinology products, dyslipidemia products and other products. AbbVie products are used to treat rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, Crohn’s disease, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), cystic fibrosis complications, low testosterone, thyroid disease, Parkinson’s disease and complications associated with chronic kidney disease, among other indications. In October 2012, AbbVie initiated a comprehensive Phase III program for hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype one.

Defensive and Enterprising Investor Tests:

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – FAIL *due to short history as stand-alone company
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Value Based on 3% Growth $40.15
Value Based on 0% Growth $23.53
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.35%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$5.12
PEmg 17.20
Current Ratio 2.41
PB Ratio 21.13

Balance Sheet – 9/30/2013

Current Assets $16,543,000,000
Current Liabilities $6,875,000,000
Total Debt $14,375,000,000
Total Assets $28,252,000,000
Intangible Assets $8,192,000,000
Total Liabilities $24,675,000,000
Outstanding Shares 1,587,760,000

Earnings Per Share

2013 (estimate) $2.67
2012 *subsidiary of Abbott Labs $3.35
2011 *subsidiary of Abbott Labs $2.18
2010 *subsidiary of Abbott Labs $2.65
2009 *subsidiary of Abbott Labs $2.94
2008 *subsidiary of Abbott Labs $2.57

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham 

2013 (estimate) $2.77
2012 $2.79
2011 $2.36
2010 $2.18
2009 $1.67
2008 $0.86

Conclusion:

Abbvie appears to be a company with prospects for becoming suitable for the Enterprising Investor in a few more years; however, at this time it is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  Intelligent Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods are very cautious investors, and choose to rely only on the most accurate data possible.  In this case, the majority of the earnings data invites the possibility of speculation because no one can determine exactly how Abbvie would have performed as a stand-alone company during the years it was actually a part of Abbott Labs.  As a result, the company fails the requirements for the Defensive Investor, who requires a ten year operating history, and the Enterprising Investor, who normally requires a five year operating history.  Therefore, Intelligent Investors should research other companies, such as those that pass the ModernGraham requirements.  From a valuation standpoint, it is impossible for the ModernGraham valuation model to present an accurate calculation of intrinsic value without having a longer history to determine the company’s demonstrated level of earnings growth; however, it should be noted that the market is implying a growth rate in earnings of 4.35%.  Individuals choosing to speculate on the company’s value can make estimations on their own about whether that growth rate is high or low.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Abbvie (ABBV)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

If you like our valuations, why not check out ModernGraham Stocks & Screens?  It’s a great way to review the valuations while screening for things like low PE ratio, undervalued companies, etc.!

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Abbvie (ABBV) or any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.

Logo taken from the Wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Johnson & Johnson Valuation – April 2019 #JNJ

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Johnson & Johnson, incorporated on November 10, 1887, is a holding company. The Company and its subsidiaries are engaged in the research and development, manufacture and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field. The Company operates through three segments: Consumer, Pharmaceutical and Medical Devices. The Company’s primary focus is on products related to human health and well-being. The Company’s subsidiaries operated 119 manufacturing facilities, as of January 1, 2017. The Company’s research facilities are located in the United States, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Israel, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The Company has over 230 operating companies, which conduct business around the world.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of JNJ – April 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $361,737,592,452 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.47 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 20.12% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.36 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 6.20 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.47 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.87 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.58
MG Growth Estimate 1.54%
MG Value $64.60
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $80.85
MG Value based on 0% Growth $47.40
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.93%
Current Price $135.83
% of Intrinsic Value 210.26%

 

Johnson & Johnson does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.06 in 2015 to an estimated $5.58 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.93% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Johnson & Johnson revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $65.24. The company pays a dividend of $3.54 per share, for a yield of 2.6%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 24.36, which was below the industry average of 45.96, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-17.3.

Johnson & Johnson receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$17.30
Graham Number $65.24
PEmg 24.36
Current Ratio 1.47
PB Ratio 6.20
Current Dividend $3.54
Dividend Yield 2.61%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

 

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $46,033,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $31,230,000,000
Long-Term Debt $27,684,000,000
Total Assets $152,954,000,000
Intangible Assets $78,064,000,000
Total Liabilities $93,202,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 2,726,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.49
Dec2018 $5.61
Dec2017 $0.47
Dec2016 $5.93
Dec2015 $5.48
Dec2014 $5.70
Dec2013 $4.81
Dec2012 $3.86
Dec2011 $3.49
Dec2010 $4.78
Dec2009 $4.40
Dec2008 $4.57
Dec2007 $3.63
Dec2006 $3.73
Dec2005 $3.35
Dec2004 $2.74
Dec2003 $2.29
Dec2002 $2.16
Dec2001 $1.84
Dec2000 $1.61
Dec1999 $1.39

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.58
Dec2018 $4.29
Dec2017 $3.91
Dec2016 $5.48
Dec2015 $5.06
Dec2014 $4.74
Dec2013 $4.26
Dec2012 $4.06
Dec2011 $4.17
Dec2010 $4.41
Dec2009 $4.13
Dec2008 $3.87
Dec2007 $3.39
Dec2006 $3.13
Dec2005 $2.72
Dec2004 $2.31
Dec2003 $2.01

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Johnson & Johnson Valuation – November 2018 $JNJ
Johnson & Johnson Valuation – February 2018 $JNJ
4 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 1/28/17
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – January 2017
Johnson & Johnson Valuation – January 2017 $JNJ

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Valuation – April 2019 #BMY
Biogen Inc Valuation – March 2019 #BIIB
Mylan NV Valuation – March 2019 #MYL
Celgene Corp Valuation – March 2019 #CELG
Amgen Inc Valuation – March 2019 #AMGN
AbbVie Inc Valuation – March 2019 #ABBV
Allergan PLC Valuation – February 2019 $AGN
Incyte Corp Valuation – February 2019 $INCY
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $REGN
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $ALXN

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Valuation – April 2019 #BMY

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, incorporated on August 11, 1933, is engaged in the discovery, development, licensing, manufacturing, marketing, distribution and sale of biopharmaceutical products. The Company’s pharmaceutical products include chemically synthesized drugs, or small molecules, and products produced from biological processes called biologics. Small molecule drugs are administered orally in the form of a pill or tablet. Biologics are administered to patients through injections or by infusion. The Company’s products include Empliciti, Opdivo, Sprycel, Yervoy, Eliquis, Orencia, Baraclude, Hepatitis C Franchise, Reyataz Franchise and Sustiva Franchise. It offers products for a range of therapeutic classes, which include virology, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection; oncology; immunoscience, and cardiovascular. Its products are sold to wholesalers, retail pharmacies, hospitals, government entities and the medical profession across the world.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of BMY – April 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $76,654,092,495 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.61 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 51.08% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.33 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.44 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.61 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.87 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.71
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $104.21
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $39.25
MG Value based on 0% Growth $23.01
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.42%
Current Price $46.91
% of Intrinsic Value 45.02%

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.24 in 2015 to an estimated $2.71 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.42% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Bristol-Myers Squibb Co revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $28.16. The company pays a dividend of $1.61 per share, for a yield of 3.4%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.33, which was below the industry average of 45.96, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-2.26.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$2.26
Graham Number $28.16
PEmg 17.33
Current Ratio 1.61
PB Ratio 5.44
Current Dividend $1.61
Dividend Yield 3.43%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 12

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $17,160,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $10,654,000,000
Long-Term Debt $5,646,000,000
Total Assets $34,986,000,000
Intangible Assets $7,629,000,000
Total Liabilities $20,859,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,637,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.10
Dec2018 $3.01
Dec2017 $0.61
Dec2016 $2.65
Dec2015 $0.93
Dec2014 $1.20
Dec2013 $1.54
Dec2012 $1.16
Dec2011 $2.16
Dec2010 $1.79
Dec2009 $5.34
Dec2008 $2.62
Dec2007 $1.09
Dec2006 $0.81
Dec2005 $1.52
Dec2004 $1.21
Dec2003 $1.59
Dec2002 $1.06
Dec2001 $0.95
Dec2000 $1.84
Dec1999 $1.81

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.71
Dec2018 $1.90
Dec2017 $1.36
Dec2016 $1.65
Dec2015 $1.24
Dec2014 $1.45
Dec2013 $1.85
Dec2012 $2.21
Dec2011 $2.69
Dec2010 $2.74
Dec2009 $2.91
Dec2008 $1.61
Dec2007 $1.15
Dec2006 $1.20
Dec2005 $1.35
Dec2004 $1.29
Dec2003 $1.37

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Valuation – June 2018 $BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Valuation – September 2017 $BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Valuation – February 2016 $BMY
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/20/14
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Annual Valuation – 2014 $BMY

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Biogen Inc Valuation – March 2019 #BIIB
Mylan NV Valuation – March 2019 #MYL
Celgene Corp Valuation – March 2019 #CELG
Amgen Inc Valuation – March 2019 #AMGN
AbbVie Inc Valuation – March 2019 #ABBV
Allergan PLC Valuation – February 2019 $AGN
Incyte Corp Valuation – February 2019 $INCY
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $REGN
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $ALXN
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $VRTX

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Biogen Inc Valuation – March 2019 #BIIB

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Biogen Inc., incorporated on April 1, 1997, is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovering, developing, manufacturing and delivering therapies to people living with serious neurological, rare and autoimmune diseases. The Company markets products, including TECFIDERA, AVONEX, PLEGRIDY, TYSABRI, ZINBRYTA and FAMPYRA for multiple sclerosis (MS), FUMADERM for the treatment of severe plaque psoriasis and SPINRAZA for the treatment of spinal muscular atrophy (SMA). The Company also has a collaboration agreement with Genentech, Inc. (Genentech), a member of the Roche Group, with respect to RITUXAN for the treatment of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and other conditions, GAZYVA indicated for the treatment of CLL and follicular lymphoma, and other anti-CD20 therapies.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of BIIB – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $46,257,034,108 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.32 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 314.38% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 11.41 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.61 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.32 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.37 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $20.61
MG Growth Estimate 12.91%
MG Value $707.38
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $298.87
MG Value based on 0% Growth $175.20
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.45%
Current Price $235.16
% of Intrinsic Value 33.24%

Biogen Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $11.08 in 2015 to an estimated $20.61 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.45% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Biogen Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $202.57. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 11.41, which was below the industry average of 47.6, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-23.06.

Biogen Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$23.06
Graham Number $202.57
PEmg 11.41
Current Ratio 2.32
PB Ratio 3.61
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $7,640,900,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,295,200,000
Long-Term Debt $5,936,500,000
Total Assets $25,288,900,000
Intangible Assets $8,826,400,000
Total Liabilities $12,257,300,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 200,200,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $27.58
Dec2018 $21.58
Dec2017 $11.92
Dec2016 $16.93
Dec2015 $15.34
Dec2014 $12.37
Dec2013 $7.81
Dec2012 $5.76
Dec2011 $5.04
Dec2010 $3.94
Dec2009 $3.35
Dec2008 $2.65
Dec2007 $1.99
Dec2006 $0.63
Dec2005 $0.47
Dec2004 $0.07
Dec2003 -$4.92
Dec2002 $0.85
Dec2001 $1.78
Dec2000 $0.72
Dec1999 $0.47

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $20.61
Dec2018 $16.63
Dec2017 $13.73
Dec2016 $13.63
Dec2015 $11.08
Dec2014 $8.29
Dec2013 $5.90
Dec2012 $4.68
Dec2011 $3.89
Dec2010 $3.04
Dec2009 $2.34
Dec2008 $1.61
Dec2007 $0.61
Dec2006 -$0.25
Dec2005 -$0.58
Dec2004 -$0.83
Dec2003 -$0.93

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Biogen Inc Valuation – June 2018 $BIIB
Biogen Inc Valuation – July 2017 $BIIB
Biogen Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $BIIB
13 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 10/17/15
Biogen Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $BIIB

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Mylan NV Valuation – March 2019 #MYL
Celgene Corp Valuation – March 2019 #CELG
Amgen Inc Valuation – March 2019 #AMGN
AbbVie Inc Valuation – March 2019 #ABBV
Allergan PLC Valuation – February 2019 $AGN
Incyte Corp Valuation – February 2019 $INCY
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $REGN
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $ALXN
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Valuation – February 2019 $VRTX
Perrigo Company Valuation – February 2019 $PRGO

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Mylan NV Valuation – March 2019 #MYL

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Mylan N.V., incorporated on July 7, 2014, is a global pharmaceutical company. The Company develops, licenses, manufactures, markets and distributes generic, brand name and over-the-counter (OTC) products in a range of dosage forms and therapeutic categories. It operates through three segments on a geographic basis, North America, Europe and Rest of World. The Company’s Cold-EEZE family of brands includes OTC cold remedies sold as lozenges, gummies, oral sprays, caplets, QuickMelts and oral liquid dose forms in the United States. The North America segment is primarily made up of its operations in the United States and Canada. The Europe segment is made up its operations in approximately 35 countries within the region. The Rest of World segment is primarily made up of its operations in India, Australia, Japan and New Zealand. Also included in the Rest of World segment are its operations in markets, which include countries in Africa (including South Africa), as well as Brazil and other countries throughout Asia and the Middle East. The Company conducts active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) business through Mylan Laboratories Limited (Mylan India). As of December 31, 2016, it offers product portfolios, including approximately 7,500 marketed products around the world, to customers in over 165 countries and territories. It operates a global vertically integrated manufacturing platform around the world and API operations. It also operates research and development (R&D) network that delivers product pipeline, including a range of dosage forms, therapeutic categories and biosimilars.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MYL – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $14,663,296,197 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.39 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 78.36% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 13.86 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.21 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.39 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 7.39 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.05
MG Growth Estimate 2.18%
MG Value $26.36
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $29.73
MG Value based on 0% Growth $17.43
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.68%
Current Price $28.42
% of Intrinsic Value 107.80%

Mylan NV does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.79 in 2015 to an estimated $2.05 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 2.68% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Mylan NV revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $46.77. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 13.86, which was below the industry average of 47.6, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-27.49.

Mylan NV receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$27.49
Graham Number $46.77
PEmg 13.86
Current Ratio 1.39
PB Ratio 1.21
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $6,367,700,000
Total Current Liabilities $4,587,800,000
Long-Term Debt $13,161,200,000
Total Assets $32,734,900,000
Intangible Assets $23,412,400,000
Total Liabilities $20,567,800,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 516,500,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.12
Dec2018 $0.68
Dec2017 $1.30
Dec2016 $0.92
Dec2015 $1.70
Dec2014 $2.34
Dec2013 $1.58
Dec2012 $1.52
Dec2011 $1.22
Dec2010 $0.68
Dec2009 $0.30
Dec2008 -$1.05
Mar2007 $0.99
Mar2006 $0.79
Mar2005 $0.74
Mar2004 $1.21
Mar2003 $0.96
Mar2002 $0.91
Mar2001 $0.13
Mar2000 $0.52
Mar1999 $0.41

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.05
Dec2018 $1.14
Dec2017 $1.44
Dec2016 $1.54
Dec2015 $1.79
Dec2014 $1.71
Dec2013 $1.29
Dec2012 $0.94
Dec2011 $0.57
Dec2010 $0.28
Dec2009 $0.17
Dec2008 $0.25
Mar2007 $0.91
Mar2006 $0.89
Mar2005 $0.89
Mar2004 $0.89
Mar2003 $0.68

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Mylan NV Valuation – June 2018 $MYL
Mylan NV Valuation – March 2017 $MYL
Mylan NV Valuation – January 2016 Update $MYL
32 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/6/14
Mylan Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $MYL

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Perrigo Company Valuation – February 2019 $PRGO
Eli Lilly and Co Valuation – January 2019 $LLY
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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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