Arista Networks Inc Valuation – April 2019 #ANET

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Arista Networks, Inc., incorporated on December 2, 2011, is a supplier of cloud networking solutions that use software innovations to address the needs of Internet companies, cloud service providers and data centers for enterprise support. The Company develops, markets and sells cloud networking solutions, which consist of its Gigabit Ethernet switches and related software. The Company’s cloud networking solutions consist of its Extensible Operating System (EOS), a set of network applications and its Ethernet switching and routing platforms. The programmability of EOS has allowed the Company to create a set of software applications that address the requirements of cloud networking, including workflow automation, network visibility and analytics, and has also allowed it to integrate with a range of third-party applications for virtualization, management, automation, orchestration and network services. EOS supports cloud and virtualization solutions, including VMware NSX, Microsoft System Center, OpenStack and other cloud management frameworks.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ANET – April 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $23,736,366,775 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 4.48 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 2711.11% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 58.38 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 11.81 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 4.48 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.36
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $206.51
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $77.78
MG Value based on 0% Growth $45.59
Market Implied Growth Rate 24.94%
Current Price $313.17
% of Intrinsic Value 151.65%

Arista Networks Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.09 in 2015 to an estimated $5.36 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 24.94% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Arista Networks Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $72.85. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 58.38, which was above the industry average of 35.4. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $21.97.

Arista Networks Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $21.97
Graham Number $72.85
PEmg 58.38
Current Ratio 4.48
PB Ratio 11.81
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $2,714,802,000
Total Current Liabilities $606,504,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $3,081,983,000
Intangible Assets $112,294,000
Total Liabilities $938,594,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 80,844,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.30
Dec2018 $4.06
Dec2017 $5.35
Dec2016 $2.50
Dec2015 $1.67
Dec2014 $1.29
Dec2013 $0.73
Dec2012 $0.00
Dec2011 $0.63

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.36
Dec2018 $3.59
Dec2017 $3.00
Dec2016 $1.63
Dec2015 $1.09
Dec2014 $0.71
Dec2013 $0.37
Dec2012 $0.17
Dec2011 $0.21

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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Garmin Ltd Valuation – March 2019 #GRMN
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Fortive Corp Valuation – March 2019 #FTV
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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Intel Corporation Valuation – April 2019 #INTC

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Intel Corporation, incorporated on March 1, 1989, is engaged in designing and manufacturing products and technologies, such as the cloud. The Company’s segments are Client Computing Group (CCG), Data Center Group (DCG), Internet of Things Group (IOTG), Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group (NSG), Intel Security Group (ISecG), Programmable Solutions Group (PSG), All Other and New Technology Group (NTG). The Company delivers computer, networking and communications platforms to a set of customers, including original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), original design manufacturers (ODMs), cloud and communications service providers, as well as industrial, communications and automotive equipment manufacturers. It offers platforms to integrate various components and technologies, including a microprocessor and chipset, a stand-alone System-on-Chip (SoC), or a multichip package. Its platforms are managed by additional hardware, software and services offered by Intel.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of INTC – April 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $249,631,094,870 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.73 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 61.87% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.34 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.42 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.73 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.06 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago PassModernGraham Valuation of INTC – April 2019

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.40
MG Growth Estimate 8.02%
MG Value $83.35
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $49.26
MG Value based on 0% Growth $28.88
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.91%
Current Price $55.45
% of Intrinsic Value 66.53%

Intel Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.21 in 2015 to an estimated $3.4 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.91% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Intel Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $39.14. The company pays a dividend of $1.2 per share, for a yield of 2.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.32, which was below the industry average of 35.4, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-5.24.

Intel Corporation performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$5.24
Graham Number $39.14
PEmg 16.32
Current Ratio 1.73
PB Ratio 3.42
Current Dividend $1.20
Dividend Yield 2.16%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $28,787,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $16,626,000,000
Long-Term Debt $25,098,000,000
Total Assets $127,963,000,000
Intangible Assets $36,349,000,000
Total Liabilities $52,981,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 4,620,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.10
Dec2018 $4.48
Dec2017 $1.99
Dec2016 $2.12
Dec2015 $2.33
Dec2014 $2.31
Dec2013 $1.89
Dec2012 $2.13
Dec2011 $2.39
Dec2010 $2.01
Dec2009 $0.77
Dec2008 $0.92
Dec2007 $1.18
Dec2006 $0.86
Dec2005 $1.40
Dec2004 $1.16
Dec2003 $0.85
Dec2002 $0.46
Dec2001 $0.19
Dec2000 $1.51
Dec1999 $1.05

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.40
Dec2018 $2.91
Dec2017 $2.13
Dec2016 $2.18
Dec2015 $2.21
Dec2014 $2.15
Dec2013 $2.00
Dec2012 $1.91
Dec2011 $1.69
Dec2010 $1.27
Dec2009 $0.95
Dec2008 $1.06
Dec2007 $1.11
Dec2006 $1.04
Dec2005 $1.02
Dec2004 $0.83
Dec2003 $0.72

Recommended Reading:

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Intel Corp Valuation – November 2018 $INTC
Intel Corp Valuation – February 2018 $INTC
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Emerson Electric Co Valuation – April 2019 #EMR
Skyworks Solutions Inc Valuation – March 2019 #SWKS
Garmin Ltd Valuation – March 2019 #GRMN
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co Valuation – March 2019 #HPE
Fortive Corp Valuation – March 2019 #FTV

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

TrueBlue Inc Valuation – October 2018 $TBI

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): TrueBlue, Inc., incorporated on March 18, 1985, is a provider of specialized workforce solutions. The Company is engaged in providing staffing, on-site workforce management and recruitment process outsourcing services. The Company operates through three segments: PeopleReady, PeopleManagement and PeopleScout. Its PeopleReady segment provides blue-collar contingent staffing through the PeopleReady service line. Its PeopleManagement segment provides primarily on-premise contingent staffing and on-premise management of those contingent staffing services through four segments: Staff Management a SMX (Staff Management), SIMOS Insourcing Solutions Corporation (SIMOS), Centerline and PlaneTechs. Its PeopleScout segment provides permanent employee recruitment process outsourcing (RPO) and management of outsourced labor service providers through two segments: PeopleScout and PeopleScout MSP. Through its subsidiary, TMP Holdings LTD, the Company provides employer branding and recruitment marketing solutions.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TBI – October 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,029,902,476 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.98 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 112.23% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 19.85 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.82 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.98 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.55 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.28
MG Growth Estimate 2.08%
MG Value $16.16
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $18.52
MG Value based on 0% Growth $10.86
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.67%
Current Price $25.35
% of Intrinsic Value 156.84%

Trueblue Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.12 in 2014 to an estimated $1.28 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.67% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Trueblue Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $24.52. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.85, which was below the industry average of 27.67, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.16.

Trueblue Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$3.16
Graham Number $24.52
PEmg 19.85
Current Ratio 1.98
PB Ratio 1.82
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2018
Total Current Assets $432,966,000
Total Current Liabilities $219,129,000
Long-Term Debt $117,199,000
Total Assets $1,124,220,000
Intangible Assets $341,455,000
Total Liabilities $560,919,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 40,469,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.98
Dec2017 $1.34
Dec2016 -$0.37
Dec2015 $1.71
Dec2014 $1.59
Dec2013 $1.11
Dec2012 $0.84
Dec2011 $0.73
Dec2010 $0.46
Dec2009 $0.20
Dec2008 -$0.10
Dec2007 $1.44
Dec2006 $1.45
Dec2005 $1.18
Dec2004 $0.75
Dec2003 $0.41
Dec2002 $0.28
Dec2001 $0.23
Dec2000 $0.24
Dec1999 $0.53
Dec1998 $0.46

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.28
Dec2017 $0.98
Dec2016 $0.85
Dec2015 $1.38
Dec2014 $1.12
Dec2013 $0.81
Dec2012 $0.59
Dec2011 $0.49
Dec2010 $0.48
Dec2009 $0.60
Dec2008 $0.85
Dec2007 $1.23
Dec2006 $1.02
Dec2005 $0.73
Dec2004 $0.46
Dec2003 $0.32
Dec2002 $0.30

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Trueblue Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TBI

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Trueblue Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TBI

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Trueblue Inc (TBI) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): TrueBlue, Inc. is a provider of specialized workforce solutions. The Company is engaged in providing staffing, on-site workforce management and recruitment process outsourcing services. The Company operates through three segments: PeopleReady, PeopleManagement and PeopleScout. Its PeopleReady segment provides blue-collar contingent staffing through the PeopleReady service line. Its PeopleManagement segment provides primarily on-premise contingent staffing and on-premise management of those contingent staffing services through four segments: Staff Management a SMX (Staff Management), SIMOS Insourcing Solutions Corporation (SIMOS), Centerline and PlaneTechs. Its PeopleScout segment provides permanent employee recruitment process outsourcing (RPO) and management of outsourced labor service providers through two segments: PeopleScout and PeopleScout MSP.

TBI Chart

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TBI – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,124,245,737 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.70 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 433.93% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.88 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.13 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.70 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.77 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.08
MG Growth Estimate 4.87%
MG Value $19.69
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $15.65
MG Value based on 0% Growth $9.17
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.19%
Current Price $26.85
% of Intrinsic Value 136.34%

Trueblue Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.81 in 2013 to an estimated $1.08 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.19% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Trueblue Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $21.42. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 24.88, which was above the industry average of 21.9. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-4.26.

Trueblue Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$4.26
Graham Number $21.42
PEmg 24.88
Current Ratio 1.70
PB Ratio 2.13
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $427,803,000
Total Current Liabilities $251,135,000
Long-Term Debt $135,362,000
Total Assets $1,130,445,000
Intangible Assets $349,894,000
Total Liabilities $605,266,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 41,648,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.65
Dec2016 -$0.37
Dec2015 $1.71
Dec2014 $1.59
Dec2013 $1.11
Dec2012 $0.84
Dec2011 $0.73
Dec2010 $0.46
Dec2009 $0.20
Dec2008 -$0.10
Dec2007 $1.44
Dec2006 $1.45
Dec2005 $1.18
Dec2004 $0.75
Dec2003 $0.41
Dec2002 $0.28
Dec2001 $0.23
Dec2000 $0.24
Dec1999 $0.53
Dec1998 $0.46
Dec1997 $0.17

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.08
Dec2016 $0.85
Dec2015 $1.38
Dec2014 $1.12
Dec2013 $0.81
Dec2012 $0.59
Dec2011 $0.49
Dec2010 $0.48
Dec2009 $0.60
Dec2008 $0.85
Dec2007 $1.23
Dec2006 $1.02
Dec2005 $0.73
Dec2004 $0.46
Dec2003 $0.32
Dec2002 $0.30
Dec2001 $0.32

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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Alliance Data Systems Corp Valuation – February 2017 $ADS
John Wiley & Sons Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $JW.A

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Discovery Communications Inc Valuation – August 2016 $DISCA

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Discovery Communications Inc (DISCA) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Discovery Communications, Inc., (Discovery) is a global media company. The Company provides content across multiple distribution platforms, including pay-television (pay-TV), free-to-air and broadcast television, Websites, digital distribution arrangements and content licensing agreements. Its segments are U.S. Networks, which consists principally of domestic television networks and Websites; International Networks, which consists primarily of international television networks and Websites; Education and Other, which consists principally of curriculum-based product and service offerings, and production studios, and Corporate and Inter-segment Eliminations. It distributes customized content in the United States, and over 220 other countries and territories in over 40 languages. The Company’s global portfolio of networks includes television brands, such as Discovery Channel, TLC, Animal Planet, Investigation Discovery, Science and Velocity (known as Turbo outside of the United States).

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DISCA Chart

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of DISCA – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $9,852,566,755 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.94 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 392.16% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.22 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.91 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.94 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 6.16 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

DISCA value chart August 2016

EPSmg $1.63
MG Growth Estimate 8.07%
MG Value $40.10
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $23.60
MG Value based on 0% Growth $13.83
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.36%
Current Price $24.77
% of Intrinsic Value 61.77%

Discovery Communications Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.06 in 2012 to an estimated $1.63 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.36% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Discovery Communications Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

DISCA charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$12.45
Graham Number $22.86
PEmg 15.22
Current Ratio 1.94
PB Ratio 2.91
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $2,667,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,375,000,000
Long-Term Debt $7,965,000,000
Total Assets $15,878,000,000
Intangible Assets $11,954,000,000
Total Liabilities $10,512,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 630,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.78
Dec2015 $1.58
Dec2014 $1.66
Dec2013 $1.49
Dec2012 $1.24
Dec2011 $1.40
Dec2010 $0.76
Dec2009 $0.65
Dec2008 $0.49
Dec2007 -$0.12
Dec2006 -$0.08
Dec2005 $0.06
Dec2004 $0.12
Dec2003 -$0.10
Dec2002 -$0.23
Dec2001 -$1.09

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.63
Dec2015 $1.53
Dec2014 $1.43
Dec2013 $1.25
Dec2012 $1.06
Dec2011 $0.86
Dec2010 $0.50
Dec2009 $0.32
Dec2008 $0.13
Dec2007 -$0.04
Dec2006 -$0.01
Dec2005 -$0.07
Dec2004 -$0.18
Dec2003 -$0.31
Dec2002 -$0.37
Dec2001 -$0.36

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Discovery Communications Analysis – 2015 Annual Update $DISCA
15 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/31/14
Discovery Communications 2014 Annual Valuation $DISCA

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Scripps Networks Valuation – July 2016 $SNI
Cablevision Systems Corp Valuation – July 2016 $CVC
Time Warner Inc Valuation – July 2016 $TWX
Comcast Corporation Valuation – June 2016 $CMCSA
Viacom Inc Valuation – June 2016 $VIAB
CBS Corporation Valuation – May 2016 $CBS
Graham Holdings Company Valuation – May 2016 $GHC
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $FOXA
Scripps Networks Interactive Inc Valuation – February 2016 Update $SNI
Walt Disney Co Valuation – December 2015 Update $DIS

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Visa Inc Valuation – June 2016 $V

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Visa Inc (V) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Visa Inc. is a payments technology company. The Company and its subsidiaries, including Visa U.S.A. Inc. (Visa U.S.A.), Visa International Service Association (Visa International), Visa Worldwide Pte. Limited, Visa Canada Corporation, Inovant LLC and CyberSource Corporation (CyberSource), operate a processing network, VisaNet, which facilitates authorization, clearing and settlement of payment transactions around the world. The Company also offers fraud protection for account holders and rapid payment for merchants. The Company provides its services to consumers, businesses, financial institutions and governments in over 200 countries and territories for electronic payments. It provides a range of payment solutions that support payment products that issuers can offer to their account holders, including pay now with debit, pay ahead with prepaid or pay later with credit products. It also offers a suite of digital, e-commerce, person-to-person payments, and mobile products and services.

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[not-level-free]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of V – June 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $182,963,238,414 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 4.74 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 890.00% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 32.33 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 6.19 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 4.74 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.83 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

V value chart June 2016

EPSmg $2.32
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $89.37
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $33.66
MG Value based on 0% Growth $19.73
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.91%
Current Price $75.05
% of Intrinsic Value 83.97%

Visa Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.89 in 2012 to an estimated $2.32 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 11.91% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

Visa Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

V charts June 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$0.37
Graham Number $28.51
PEmg 32.33
Current Ratio 4.74
PB Ratio 6.19
Current Dividend $0.52
Dividend Yield 0.69%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $24,303,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $5,125,000,000
Long-Term Debt $15,876,000,000
Total Assets $54,326,000,000
Intangible Assets $23,171,000,000
Total Liabilities $25,195,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 2,401,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.69
Sep2015 $2.58
Sep2014 $2.16
Sep2013 $1.90
Sep2012 $0.79
Sep2011 $1.29
Sep2010 $1.00
Sep2009 $0.51
Sep2008 $0.24

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.32
Sep2015 $2.01
Sep2014 $1.62
Sep2013 $1.27
Sep2012 $0.89
Sep2011 $0.83
Sep2010 $0.52
Sep2009 $0.23
Sep2008 $0.08

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

9 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 11/28/15
Visa Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $V
The Best Stocks of the Financial Services Industry – September 2015
19 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 8/29/15
Visa Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $V

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Morgan Stanley Valuation – June 2016 $MS
BlackRock Inc Valuation – June 2016 $BLK
Goldman Sachs Group Inc Valuation – June 2016 $GS
Ameriprise Financial Inc Valuation – June 2016 $AMP
American Express Company Valuation – May 2016 $AXP
T.Rowe Price Group Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $TROW
Moody’s Corporation Stock Valuation – February 2016 $MCO
KKR & Co LP Stock Valuation – February 2016 $KKR
Capital One Financial Corp Valuation – January 2016 Update $COF
Franklin Resources Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $BEN

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Visa Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $V

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – November 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Visa Inc (V) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Visa Inc. is a payments technology company. The Company is engaged in operating a processing network, VisaNet, which facilitates authorization, clearing and settlement of payment transactions across the world. The Company provides its services to consumers, businesses, financial institutions and governments in more than 200 countries and territories for electronic payments. The Company offers fraud protection for account holders and rapid payment for merchants. The Company provides a variety of payment solutions that support payment products that issuers can offer to their account holders, such as pay now with debit, pay ahead with prepaid or pay later with credit products. The Company offers a suite of digital, eCommerce and mobile products and services.

[level-free]

To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of V

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $193,337,235,183 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.03 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 714.13% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 34.08 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 6.53 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.03 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

V value chart November 2015

EPSmg $2.34
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $90.18
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $33.96
MG Value based on 0% Growth $19.91
Market Implied Growth Rate 12.79%
Current Price $79.82
% of Intrinsic Value 88.51%

Visa Inc qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the short history as a publicly traded company.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.92 in 2012 to an estimated $2.34 for 2016.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 12.79% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Visa Inc (V)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

V charts November 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.20
Graham Number $28.87
PEmg 34.08
Current Ratio 2.03
PB Ratio 6.53
Dividend Yield 0.60%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

 

[/level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Sep15
Total Current Assets $10,892,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $5,374,000,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $40,236,000,000
Intangible Assets $23,186,000,000
Total Liabilities $10,394,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 2,442,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.75
Sep15 $2.58
Sep14 $2.16
Sep13 $1.90
Sep12 $0.79
Sep11 $1.29
Sep10 $1.00
Sep09 $0.78
Sep08 $0.15

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.34
Sep15 $2.01
Sep14 $1.62
Sep13 $1.29
Sep12 $0.92
Sep11 $0.87
Sep10 $0.57
Sep09 $0.30
Sep08 $0.05

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

The Best Stocks of the Financial Services Industry – September 2015
19 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 8/29/15
Visa Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $V
Visa Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $V
Visa Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $V

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Ameriprise Financial Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $AMP
BlackRock Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $BLK
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $GS
American Express Company Valuation – October 2015 Update $AXP
KKR & Co. LP Valuation – October 2015 Update $KKR
Invesco Limited Analysis – October 2015 Update $IVZ
CME Group Inc. Analysis – October 2015 Update $CME
T.Rowe Price Group Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $TROW
Moody’s Corporation Analysis – September 2015 Update $MCO
The Best Stocks of the Financial Services Industry – September 2015

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

 

Visa Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $V

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – August 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Visa Inc. (V) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Visa Inc. is a payments technology company. The Company is engaged in operating a processing network, VisaNet, which facilitates authorization, clearing and settlement of payment transactions across the world. The Company provides its services to consumers, businesses, financial institutions and governments in more than 200 countries and territories for electronic payments. The Company offers fraud protection for account holders and rapid payment for merchants. The Company provides a variety of payment solutions that support payment products that issuers can offer to their account holders, such as pay now with debit, pay ahead with prepaid or pay later with credit products. The Company offers a suite of digital, eCommerce and mobile products and services.

[level-free]

To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of V

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg 1.98
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $76.36
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $28.76
MG Value based on 0% Growth $16.86
Market Implied Growth Rate 13.70%
Current Price $71.21
% of Intrinsic Value 93.26%

Visa Inc. qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the short history as a publicly traded company and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.87 in 2011 to an estimated $1.98 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 13.70% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Visa Inc. (V)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

V Charts - August 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$0.30
PEmg 35.91
Current Ratio 1.74
PB Ratio 6.09
Dividend Yield 0.65%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

 

[/level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $10,068,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $5,789,000,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $39,429,000,000
Intangible Assets $23,200,000,000
Total Liabilities $10,802,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 2,448,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.51
Sep14 $2.16
Sep13 $1.90
Sep12 $0.79
Sep11 $1.29
Sep10 $1.00
Sep09 $0.78
Sep08 $0.15

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.98
Sep14 $1.62
Sep13 $1.29
Sep12 $0.92
Sep11 $0.87
Sep10 $0.57
Sep09 $0.30
Sep08 $0.05

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Visa Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $V
5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor – May 2015
5 Undervalued Dow Components to Research – May 2015
10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – April 2015
5 Undervalued Dow Components to Research – April 2015

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Ameriprise Financial Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $AMP
SLM Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $SLM
Western Union Company Analysis – 2015 Update $WU
American Express Company Analysis – August 2015 Update $AXP
Main Street Capital Corporation Analysis – Initial Coverage $MAIN
BlackRock Inc. Analysis – July 2015 Update $BLK
Navient Corporation Analysis – Initial Coverage $NAVI
KKR & Co. LP Analysis – Initial Coverage $KKR
McGraw Hill Financial Inc. Analysis – 2015 Update $MHFI
Bank of New York Mellon Analysis – July 2015 Update $BK

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Cisco Systems Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $CSCO

500px-Cisco_logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Cisco System, Inc. (Cisco) designs, manufactures, and sells Internet protocol (IP)-based networking products and services related to the communications and information technology (IT) industry. The Company also provides services associated with these products and their use and also provides products and services for transporting data, voice, and video traffic across intranets, extranets, and the Internet. The Company’s business operates in three segments: the Americas; Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), and Asia Pacific, Japan, and China (APJC). The Company groups its products and technologies into the following categories: Switching, Next-Generation Network (NGN) Routing, Service Provider Video, Collaboration, Data Center, Wireless, Security, and Other Products. These products, primarily integrated by Cisco IOS Software, link geographically dispersed local-area networks (LANs), metropolitan-area networks (MANs), and wide-area networks (WANs).

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To read the rest of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.
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[level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $28.27
MG Value $32.54
MG Opinion Fairly Valued
Value Based on 3% Growth $24.01
Value Based on 0% Growth $14.08
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.29%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $4.26
PEmg 17.07
Current Ratio 2.98
PB Ratio 2.47

Balance Sheet – April 2015

Current Assets $69,331,000,000
Current Liabilities $23,245,000,000
Total Debt $16,586,000,000
Total Assets $106,212,000,000
Intangible Assets $27,024,000,000
Total Liabilities $47,389,000,000
Outstanding Shares 5,148,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $1.83
2014 $1.49
2013 $1.86
2012 $1.49
2011 $1.17
2010 $1.33
2009 $1.05
2008 $1.31
2007 $1.17
2006 $0.89
2005 $0.87

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $1.66
2014 $1.54
2013 $1.50
2012 $1.30
2011 $1.21
2010 $1.20

Dividend History

Free Cash Flow

Conclusion:

Cisco Systems Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the short dividend record.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.21 in 2011 to an estimated $1.66 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.29% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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5 New Books for Value Investors – March 2015

5Reading is very important for value investors.  In fact, it is one of the 7 Key Tips to Value Investing.  A great way to continually hone your investing strategies and pursue the greatest level of investing success is through frequently reading new literature.  To that end, here’s a list of 5 new books for value investors to consider adding to their reading list.  I highly recommend obtaining an Amazon Prime membership, which allows you to receive free 2-day shipping on most purchases.  Be sure to check out the master list of all recommended reading from ModernGraham!

1.  Becoming Steve Jobs:  The Evolution of a Reckless Upstart into a Visionary Leader by Brent Schlender and Rick Tetzeli

Excerpt from Amazon:

Becoming Steve Jobs takes on and breaks down the existing myth and stereotypes about Steve Jobs. The conventional, one-dimensional view of Jobs is that he was half-genius, half-jerk from youth, an irascible and selfish leader who slighted friends and family alike. Becoming Steve Jobs answers the central question about the life and career of the Apple cofounder and CEO: How did a young man so reckless and arrogant that he was exiled from the company he founded become the most effective visionary business leader of our time, ultimately transforming the daily life of billions of people?

Drawing on incredible and sometimes exclusive access, Schlender and Tetzeli tell a different story of a real human being who wrestled with his failings and learned to maximize his strengths over time. Their rich, compelling narrative is filled with stories never told before from the people who knew Jobs best, and who decided to open up to the authors, including his family, former inner circle executives, and top people at Apple, Pixar and Disney, most notably Tim Cook, Jony Ive, Eddy Cue, Ed Catmull, John Lasseter, Robert Iger and many others. In addition, Brent knew Jobs personally for 25 years and draws upon his many interviews with him, on and off the record, in writing the book. He and Rick humanize the man and explain, rather than simply describe, his behavior. Along the way, the book provides rich context about the technology revolution we all have lived through, and the ways in which Jobs changed our world.

Schlender and Tetzeli make clear that Jobs’s astounding success at Apple was far more complicated than simply picking the right products: he became more patient, he learned to trust his inner circle, and discovered the importance of growing the company incrementally rather than only shooting for dazzling game-changing products.

A rich and revealing account that will change the way we view Jobs, Becoming Steve Jobs shows us how one of the most colorful and compelling figures of our times was able to combine his unchanging, relentless passion with a more mature management style to create one of the most valuable and beloved companies on the planet.

2.  The Choose Yourself Guide to Wealth by James Altucher

Excerpt from Amazon:

This is a bold book by James Altucher because he not only gives you a new map for the new financial landscape, but he also has skin in the game. This is the first financial book in which the author REVEALS HOW HE, PERSONALLY, MAKES HIS OWN MONEY. We are living in an epic period of change, danger and opportunity. The economy is crashing and booming every few years. People are getting fired and replaced by computers and Chinese workers. The stock market crashes with regularity. Every “fix” from the government makes things worse. The Old World has been demolished… and people are desperate for answers. James Altucher’s “The Choose Yourself Guide To Wealth” contains those answers. This is the field guide to the “New World” we live in. You can play by the old rules and get left behind, or you can use these new ideas and become wealthy. This is not a book for the faint of heart. Read at your own risk, because sometimes the truth is hard to take. But for those who are ready to hear, James provides an updated map of the new territory for generating wealth and freedom. This book is the eye-opener of the century, it is the guide to building, keeping, and investing your money and breaking free from the chains of rusted, old thinking.

3.  The Great Beanie Baby Bubble:  Mass Delusion and the Dark Side of Cute by Zac Bissonette

Excerpt from Amazon:

In the annals of consumer crazes, nothing compares to Beanie Babies. In just three years, collectors who saw the toys as a means of speculation made creator Ty Warner, an eccentric college dropout, a billionaire–without advertising or big-box distribution. Beanie Babies were ten percent of eBay’s sales in its early days, with an average selling price of $30–six times the retail price. At the peak of the bubble in 1999, Warner reported a personal income of $662 million–more than Hasbro and Mattel combined.
The end of the craze was swift and devastating, with “rare” Beanie Babies deemed worthless as quickly as they’d once been deemed priceless.
Bissonnette draws on hundreds of interviews (including a visit to a man who lives with his 40,000 Ty products and an in-prison interview with a guy who killed a coworker over a Beanie Baby debt) for the first book on the strangest speculative mania of all time.

4.  Dead Wake:  The Last Crossing of the Lusitania by Erik Larson

Excerpt from Amazon:

On May 1, 1915, with WWI entering its tenth month, a luxury ocean liner as richly appointed as an English country house sailed out of New York, bound for Liverpool, carrying a record number of children and infants. The passengers were surprisingly at ease, even though Germany had declared the seas around Britain to be a war zone. For months, German U-boats had brought terror to the North Atlantic. But the Lusitania was one of the era’s great transatlantic “Greyhounds”—the fastest liner then in service—and her captain, William Thomas Turner, placed tremendous faith in the gentlemanly strictures of warfare that for a century had kept civilian ships safe from attack.

Germany, however, was determined to change the rules of the game, and Walther Schwieger, the captain of Unterseeboot-20, was happy to oblige. Meanwhile, an ultra-secret British intelligence unit tracked Schwieger’s U-boat, but told no one. As U-20 and the Lusitania made their way toward Liverpool, an array of forces both grand and achingly small—hubris, a chance fog, a closely guarded secret, and more—all converged to produce one of the great disasters of history.

It is a story that many of us think we know but don’t, and Erik Larson tells it thrillingly, switching between hunter and hunted while painting a larger portrait of America at the height of the Progressive Era. Full of glamour and suspense, Dead Wake brings to life a cast of evocative characters, from famed Boston bookseller Charles Lauriat to pioneering female architect Theodate Pope to President Woodrow Wilson, a man lost to grief, dreading the widening war but also captivated by the prospect of new love.

Gripping and important, Dead Wake captures the sheer drama and emotional power of a disaster whose intimate details and true meaning have long been obscured by history.

5.  Our Kids:  The American Dream in Crisis by Robert D. Putnam

Excerpt from Amazon:

A groundbreaking examination of the growing inequality gap from the bestselling author of Bowling Alone: why fewer Americans today have the opportunity for upward mobility.

It’s the American dream: get a good education, work hard, buy a house, and achieve prosperity and success. This is the America we believe in—a nation of opportunity, constrained only by ability and effort. But during the last twenty-five years we have seen a disturbing “opportunity gap” emerge. Americans have always believed in equality of opportunity, the idea that all kids, regardless of their family background, should have a decent chance to improve their lot in life. Now, this central tenet of the American dream seems no longer true or at the least, much less true than it was.

Robert Putnam—about whom The Economist said, “his scholarship is wide-ranging, his intelligence luminous, his tone modest, his prose unpretentious and frequently funny”—offers a personal but also authoritative look at this new American crisis. Putnam begins with his high school class of 1959 in Port Clinton, Ohio. By and large the vast majority of those students—“our kids”—went on to lives better than those of their parents. But their children and grandchildren have had harder lives amid diminishing prospects. Putnam tells the tale of lessening opportunity through poignant life stories of rich and poor kids from cities and suburbs across the country, drawing on a formidable body of research done especially for this book.

Our Kids is a rare combination of individual testimony and rigorous evidence. Putnam provides a disturbing account of the American dream that should initiate a deep examination of the future of our country.

What books do you recommend for fellow value investors?  Leave a comment below.

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