Campbell Soup Co Valuation – January 2019 $CPB

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Campbell Soup Company, incorporated on November 23, 1922, is a food company. The Company is a manufacturer and marketer of food products. The Company’s segments include Americas Simple Meals and Beverages; Global Biscuits and Snacks, and Campbell Fresh. The Company makes a range of products from soups and simple meals to snacks and healthy beverages. The Company’s brands include Campbell’s, Garden Fresh Gourmet, Goldfish, Milano, Pace, Pepperidge Farm, Plum Organics, Prego, SpaghettiOs, Swanson and V8 Beverages.

CPB Chart

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CPB – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $10,367,438,346 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.69 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -15.31% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.33 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 7.35 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.69 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -7.01 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.99
MG Growth Estimate -1.52%
MG Value $10.85
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $28.82
MG Value based on 0% Growth $16.89
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.41%
Current Price $34.44
% of Intrinsic Value 317.33%

Campbell Soup Company does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.21 in 2015 to an estimated $1.99 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 4.41% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Campbell Soup Company revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $15.61. The company pays a dividend of $1.4 per share, for a yield of 4.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.33, which was below the industry average of 25.75, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-35.27.

Campbell Soup Company scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$35.27
Graham Number $15.61
PEmg 17.33
Current Ratio 0.69
PB Ratio 7.35
Current Dividend $1.40
Dividend Yield 4.07%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 2

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 10/1/2018
Total Current Assets $2,521,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,662,000,000
Long-Term Debt $8,001,000,000
Total Assets $14,587,000,000
Intangible Assets $8,680,000,000
Total Liabilities $13,172,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 302,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.39
Jul2018 $0.86
Jul2017 $2.89
Jul2016 $1.81
Jul2015 $2.13
Jul2014 $2.74
Jul2013 $1.44
Jul2012 $2.41
Jul2011 $2.42
Jul2010 $2.42
Jul2009 $2.05
Jul2008 $3.03
Jul2007 $2.16
Jul2006 $1.85
Jul2005 $1.71
Jul2004 $1.57
Jul2003 $1.45
Jul2002 $1.28
Jul2001 $1.55
Jul2000 $1.65
Jul1999 $1.63

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.99
Jul2018 $1.89
Jul2017 $2.33
Jul2016 $2.07
Jul2015 $2.21
Jul2014 $2.26
Jul2013 $2.07
Jul2012 $2.41
Jul2011 $2.41
Jul2010 $2.37
Jul2009 $2.28
Jul2008 $2.29
Jul2007 $1.86
Jul2006 $1.67
Jul2005 $1.55
Jul2004 $1.48
Jul2003 $1.46

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Campbell Soup Co Valuation – March 2018 $CPB
Campbell Soup Company Valuation – September 2017 $CPB
Campbell Soup Company Valuation – July 2016 $CPB
5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – February 2015
58 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/31/15

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Camden Property Trust Valuation – August 2018 $CPT

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Camden Property Trust, incorporated in 1933, is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company is engaged in the ownership, management, development, redevelopment, acquisition and construction of multifamily apartment communities. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned interests in, operated, or were developing 159 multifamily properties, which consisted of 55,366 apartment homes across the United States. The Company also owns land holdings, which it may develop into multifamily communities. The Company’s properties typically consist of mid-rise buildings or two and three story buildings in a landscaped setting and provide residents with a range of amenities common to multifamily rental properties. The 152 operating properties in which it owned interests and operated, as of December 31, 2016, averaged 953 square feet of living area per apartment home. As of December 31, 2016, 137 of its operating properties had over 200 apartment homes.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CPT – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $8,767,786,648 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.38 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 6621.05% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 26.44 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.57 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.38 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -13.94 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.49
MG Growth Estimate 3.27%
MG Value $52.58
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $50.66
MG Value based on 0% Growth $29.70
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.97%
Current Price $92.38
% of Intrinsic Value 175.70%

Camden Property Trust does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.87 in 2014 to an estimated $3.49 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.97% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Camden Property Trust revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $36.25. The company pays a dividend of $3 per share, for a yield of 3.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 26.44, which was below the industry average of 47.15, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-27.34.

Camden Property Trust scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$27.34
Graham Number $36.25
PEmg 26.44
Current Ratio 0.38
PB Ratio 2.57
Current Dividend $3.00
Dividend Yield 3.25%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2018
Total Current Assets $97,125,000
Total Current Liabilities $255,309,000
Long-Term Debt $2,205,288,000
Total Assets $6,131,906,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $2,703,302,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 95,337,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.59
Dec2017 $2.13
Dec2016 $9.05
Dec2015 $2.76
Dec2014 $3.27
Dec2013 $3.78
Dec2012 $3.30
Dec2011 $0.66
Dec2010 $0.33
Dec2009 -$0.80
Dec2008 $1.28
Dec2007 $2.51
Dec2006 $3.96
Dec2005 $3.58
Dec2004 $0.98
Dec2003 $0.71
Dec2002 $1.73
Dec2001 $1.41
Dec2000 $1.63
Dec1999 $1.23
Dec1998 $1.12

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.49
Dec2017 $4.36
Dec2016 $5.13
Dec2015 $3.03
Dec2014 $2.87
Dec2013 $2.26
Dec2012 $1.32
Dec2011 $0.49
Dec2010 $0.75
Dec2009 $1.34
Dec2008 $2.43
Dec2007 $2.79
Dec2006 $2.68
Dec2005 $1.92
Dec2004 $1.16
Dec2003 $1.28
Dec2002 $1.52

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

14 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 2/11/17
Camden Property Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $CPT

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Mack-Cali Realty Corp Valuation – July 2018 $CLI
Chesapeake Lodging Trust Valuation – July 2018 $CHSP
Alexander & Baldwin Inc Valuation – July 2018 $ALEX
Summit Hotel Properties Inc Valuation – July 2018 $INN
Sabra Health Care REIT Inc Valuation – July 2018 $SBRA
National Retail Properties Inc Valuation – July 2018 $NNN

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Campbell Soup Co Valuation – March 2018 $CPB

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Campbell Soup Company, incorporated on November 23, 1922, is a food company. The Company is a manufacturer and marketer of food products. The Company’s segments include Americas Simple Meals and Beverages; Global Biscuits and Snacks, and Campbell Fresh. The Company makes a range of products from soups and simple meals to snacks and healthy beverages. The Company’s brands include Campbell’s, Garden Fresh Gourmet, Goldfish, Milano, Pace, Pepperidge Farm, Plum Organics, Prego, SpaghettiOs, Swanson and V8 Beverages.

CPB Chart

CPB data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CPB – March 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $13,020,457,004 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.64 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 11.61% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.68 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 6.71 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.64 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -2.07 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.60
MG Growth Estimate 2.20%
MG Value $33.51
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $37.64
MG Value based on 0% Growth $22.07
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.09%
Current Price $43.31
% of Intrinsic Value 129.23%

Campbell Soup Company does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.26 in 2014 to an estimated $2.6 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 4.09% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Campbell Soup Company revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $19.13. The company pays a dividend of $1.4 per share, for a yield of 3.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.68, which was below the industry average of 33.37, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-14.84.

Campbell Soup Company scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$14.84
Graham Number $19.13
PEmg 16.68
Current Ratio 0.64
PB Ratio 6.71
Current Dividend $1.40
Dividend Yield 3.23%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 1/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,928,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,012,000,000
Long-Term Debt $2,247,000,000
Total Assets $8,336,000,000
Intangible Assets $3,744,000,000
Total Liabilities $6,394,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 301,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.99
Jul2017 $2.89
Jul2016 $1.81
Jul2015 $2.13
Jul2014 $2.74
Jul2013 $1.44
Jul2012 $2.41
Jul2011 $2.42
Jul2010 $2.42
Jul2009 $2.05
Jul2008 $3.03
Jul2007 $2.16
Jul2006 $1.85
Jul2005 $1.71
Jul2004 $1.57
Jul2003 $1.45
Jul2002 $1.28
Jul2001 $1.55
Jul2000 $1.65
Jul1999 $1.63
Jul1998 $1.44

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.60
Jul2017 $2.33
Jul2016 $2.07
Jul2015 $2.21
Jul2014 $2.26
Jul2013 $2.07
Jul2012 $2.41
Jul2011 $2.41
Jul2010 $2.37
Jul2009 $2.28
Jul2008 $2.29
Jul2007 $1.86
Jul2006 $1.67
Jul2005 $1.55
Jul2004 $1.48
Jul2003 $1.46
Jul2002 $1.48

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – February 2015
58 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/31/15
Campbell Soup Company Annual Valuation – 2015 $CPB
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/18/14
ModernGraham Valuation: Campbell Soup Co. (CPB)

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

The Coca-Cola Co Valuation – February 2018 $KO
Campbell Soup Company Valuation – September 2017 $CPB
Post Holdings Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $POST
Dean Foods Co Valuation – Initial Coverage $DF
George Weston Limited Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:WN
Tyson Foods Inc Valuation – July 2017 $TSN
Darling Ingredients Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DAR
Mondelez International Inc Valuation – March 2017 $MDLZ
Calavo Growers Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CVGW
Hormel Foods Corp Valuation – March 2017 $HRL

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Campbell Soup Company Valuation – September 2017 $CPB

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Campbell Soup Company (CPB) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Campbell Soup Company is a food company, which manufactures and markets food products. The Company’s segments include Americas Simple Meals and Beverages; Global Biscuits and Snacks, and Campbell Fresh. The Americas Simple Meals and Beverages segment includes the retail and food service channel businesses. The segment includes the products, such as Campbell’s condensed and ready-to-serve soups; Swanson broth and stocks; Prego pasta sauces; Pace Mexican sauces; Campbell’s gravies, pasta, beans and dinner sauces; Plum food and snacks; V8 juices and beverages, and Campbell’s tomato juice. The Global Biscuits and Snacks segment includes Pepperidge Farm cookies, crackers, bakery and frozen products; Arnott’s biscuits, and Kelsen cookies. The Campbell Fresh segment includes Bolthouse Farms fresh carrots, carrot ingredients, refrigerated beverages and refrigerated salad dressings; Garden Fresh Gourmet salsa, hummus, dips and tortilla chips, and the United States refrigerated soup business.

CPB Chart

CPB data by YCharts

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CPB – September 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $14,854,624,440 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.79 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 15.24% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.89 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 8.88 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.79 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -5.05 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.68
MG Growth Estimate 2.76%
MG Value $37.55
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $38.85
MG Value based on 0% Growth $22.77
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.69%
Current Price $47.92
% of Intrinsic Value 127.62%

Campbell Soup Company does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.26 in 2014 to an estimated $2.68 for 2018.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 4.69% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Campbell Soup Company revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $19.89.  The company pays a dividend of $1.4 per share, for a yield of 2.9%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today.  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.89, which was below the industry average of 34.94, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-13.71.

Campbell Soup Company scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$13.71
Graham Number $19.89
PEmg 17.89
Current Ratio 0.79
PB Ratio 8.88
Current Dividend $1.40
Dividend Yield 2.92%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 7/1/2017
Total Current Assets $1,900,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,395,000,000
Long-Term Debt $2,499,000,000
Total Assets $7,726,000,000
Intangible Assets $3,233,000,000
Total Liabilities $6,081,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 305,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.24
Jul2017 $2.89
Jul2016 $1.81
Jul2015 $2.13
Jul2014 $2.74
Jul2013 $1.44
Jul2012 $2.41
Jul2011 $2.42
Jul2010 $2.42
Jul2009 $2.05
Jul2008 $3.03
Jul2007 $2.16
Jul2006 $1.85
Jul2005 $1.71
Jul2004 $1.57
Jul2003 $1.45
Jul2002 $1.28
Jul2001 $1.55
Jul2000 $1.65
Jul1999 $1.63
Jul1998 $1.44

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.68
Jul2017 $2.33
Jul2016 $2.07
Jul2015 $2.21
Jul2014 $2.26
Jul2013 $2.07
Jul2012 $2.41
Jul2011 $2.41
Jul2010 $2.37
Jul2009 $2.28
Jul2008 $2.29
Jul2007 $1.86
Jul2006 $1.67
Jul2005 $1.55
Jul2004 $1.48
Jul2003 $1.46
Jul2002 $1.48

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – February 2015
58 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/31/15
Campbell Soup Company Annual Valuation – 2015 $CPB
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/18/14
ModernGraham Valuation: Campbell Soup Co. (CPB)

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

George Weston Limited Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:WN
Tyson Foods Inc Valuation – July 2017 $TSN
Darling Ingredients Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DAR
Mondelez International Inc Valuation – March 2017 $MDLZ
Calavo Growers Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CVGW
Hormel Foods Corp Valuation – March 2017 $HRL
Lancaster Colony Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $LANC
J M Smucker Co Valuation – February 2017 $SJM
Kraft Heinz Co Valuation – Initial Coverage $KHC
Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc Valuation – January 2017 $DPS

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

American Campus Communities Inc Valuation – September 2017 $ACC

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how American Campus Communities Inc (ACC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): American Campus Communities, Inc. is a self-managed and self-administered equity real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company’s segments include Wholly-Owned Properties, On-Campus Participating Properties, Development Services, and Property Management Services. It is engaged in the acquisition, design, financing, development, construction management, leasing and management of student housing properties. The Wholly-Owned Properties segment consists of off-campus properties, which are located in close proximity to the school campus. The On-Campus Participating Properties segment includes on-campus properties that are operated under long-term ground/facility leases with three university systems. The Development Services segment consists of development and construction management services that it provides through one of its taxable REIT subsidiaries for third-party owners. The Property Management Services segment includes revenues generated from third-party management contracts.

ACC Chart

ACC data by YCharts

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ModernGraham Valuation of ACC – September 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $6,574,392,992 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.98 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -763.16% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 60.49 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.83 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.98 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -1,808.46 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.80
MG Growth Estimate 2.68%
MG Value $11.04
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $11.55
MG Value based on 0% Growth $6.77
Market Implied Growth Rate 25.99%
Current Price $48.19
% of Intrinsic Value 436.59%

American Campus Communities, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.68 in 2013 to an estimated $0.8 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 25.99% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into American Campus Communities, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $20.97.  The company pays a dividend of $1.66 per share, for a yield of 3.4%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today.  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 60.49, which was above the industry average of 51.63.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-19.39.

American Campus Communities, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$19.39
Graham Number $20.97
PEmg 60.49
Current Ratio 0.98
PB Ratio 1.83
Current Dividend $1.66
Dividend Yield 3.44%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $61,242,000
Total Current Liabilities $62,547,000
Long-Term Debt $2,360,034,000
Total Assets $6,224,973,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $2,670,973,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 134,614,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.75
Dec2016 $0.75
Dec2015 $1.02
Dec2014 $0.58
Dec2013 $0.98
Dec2012 $0.65
Dec2011 $0.80
Dec2010 $0.26
Dec2009 -$0.28
Dec2008 -$0.36
Dec2007 -$0.07
Dec2006 $1.17
Dec2005 $0.65
Dec2004 $0.15
Dec2003 -$1.00

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.80
Dec2016 $0.81
Dec2015 $0.83
Dec2014 $0.71
Dec2013 $0.68
Dec2012 $0.42
Dec2011 $0.23
Dec2010 $0.01
Dec2009 $0.00
Dec2008 $0.19
Dec2007 $0.37
Dec2006 $0.46
Dec2005 $0.06
Dec2004 -$0.22
Dec2003 -$0.33

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

American Campus Communities Valuation – November 2016 $ACC
American Campus Communities Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $ACC

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Saul Centers Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $BFS
Douglas Emmett Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DEI
Lexington Realty Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $LXP
LTC Properties Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $LTC
REIT Industry Review – April 2017
Starwood Property Trust Inc Valuation – April 2017 $STWD
Dream Office REIT – Initial Coverage $TSE:D.UN
Liberty Property Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $LPT
Taubman Centers Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TCO
Corecivic Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CXW

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Camden Property Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $CPT

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Camden Property Trust (CPT) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Camden Property Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company is engaged in the ownership, management, development, redevelopment, acquisition and construction of multifamily apartment communities. The Company operates in the ownership, management, development, redevelopment, acquisition, and construction of multifamily apartment communities segment. The Company owns interests in, operates, or is developing approximately 180 multifamily properties consisting of approximately 62,650 apartment homes across the United States. Of the over 180 properties, approximately eight properties are under construction. It also owns land holdings. Its properties consist of mid-rise buildings or two and three story buildings in a landscaped setting and provide residents with various amenities common to multifamily rental properties. Its operating properties have over 200 apartment homes. Its properties include Camden Copper Square, Camden Montierra and Camden Ballantyne.

CPT Chart

CPT data by YCharts

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ModernGraham Valuation of CPT – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $7,214,472,682 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 1513.58% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 20.23 Fail
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.48 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.07
MG Growth Estimate 12.00%
MG Value $132.41
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $59.06
MG Value based on 0% Growth $34.62
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.87%
Current Price $82.43
% of Intrinsic Value 62.25%

Camden Property Trust is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.26 in 2013 to an estimated $4.07 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.87% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Camden Property Trust revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $31.26. The company pays a dividend of $3 per share, for a yield of 3.6%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 20.24, which was below the industry average of 31.91, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Camden Property Trust receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $31.26
PEmg 20.24
PB Ratio 2.48
Dividend Yield 3.64%
TTM Dividend $3.00
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $2,480,588,000
Total Assets $6,028,152,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $3,013,279,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 90,844,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.26
Dec2016 $9.05
Dec2015 $2.76
Dec2014 $3.27
Dec2013 $3.78
Dec2012 $3.30
Dec2011 $0.66
Dec2010 $0.33
Dec2009 -$0.80
Dec2008 $1.28
Dec2007 $2.51
Dec2006 $3.96
Dec2005 $3.58
Dec2004 $0.98
Dec2003 $0.71
Dec2002 $1.73
Dec2001 $1.41
Dec2000 $1.63
Dec1999 $1.23
Dec1998 $1.12
Dec1997 $1.41

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.07
Dec2016 $5.13
Dec2015 $3.03
Dec2014 $2.87
Dec2013 $2.26
Dec2012 $1.32
Dec2011 $0.49
Dec2010 $0.75
Dec2009 $1.34
Dec2008 $2.43
Dec2007 $2.79
Dec2006 $2.68
Dec2005 $1.92
Dec2004 $1.16
Dec2003 $1.28
Dec2002 $1.52
Dec2001 $1.39

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

CoreSite Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $COR
Senior Housing Properties Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $SNH
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SKT
Mack Cali Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $CLI
Chesapeake Lodging Trust Valuation – December 2016 $CHSP
Summit Hotel Properties Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $INN
Sabra Health Care REIT Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SBRA
National Retail Properties Inc Valuation – November 2016 $NNN
Welltower Inc Valuation – November 2016 $HCN
Realty Income Corp Valuation – November 2016 $O

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

American Campus Communities Valuation – November 2016 $ACC

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how American Campus Communities (ACC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): American Campus Communities, Inc. is a self-managed and self-administered equity real estate investment trust. The Company’s segments include Wholly-Owned Properties, On-Campus Participating Properties, Development Services, and Property Management Services. It is engaged in the acquisition, design, financing, development, construction management, leasing and management of student housing properties. The Wholly-Owned Properties segment consists of off-campus properties, which are generally located in close proximity to the school campus. The On-Campus Participating Properties segment includes on-campus properties that are operated under long-term ground/facility leases with university systems. The Development Services segment consists of development and construction management services that it provides through one of its taxable REIT subsidiaries (TRSs) for third-party owners. The Property Management Services segment includes revenues generated from third-party management contracts.

ACC Chart

ACC data by YCharts

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

moderngraham-valuation-of-acc-november-2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $5,673,762,373 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.02 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -492.96% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 47.08 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.74 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.02 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1,719.23 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

acc-value-chart-november-2016

EPSmg $0.96
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $36.91
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $13.90
MG Value based on 0% Growth $8.15
Market Implied Growth Rate 19.29%
Current Price $45.13
% of Intrinsic Value 122.27%

American Campus Communities, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.42 in 2012 to an estimated $0.96 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 19.29% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into American Campus Communities, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $26.61. The company pays a dividend of $1.64 per share, for a yield of 3.6%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 47.08, which was above the industry average of 34.03. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-20.71.

American Campus Communities, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

acc-charts-november-2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$20.71
Graham Number $26.61
PEmg 47.08
Current Ratio 1.02
PB Ratio 1.74
Current Dividend $1.64
Dividend Yield 3.63%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $78,692,000
Total Current Liabilities $77,247,000
Long-Term Debt $2,484,292,000
Total Assets $6,279,375,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $2,829,269,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 132,790,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.19
Dec2015 $1.02
Dec2014 $0.58
Dec2013 $0.98
Dec2012 $0.65
Dec2011 $0.80
Dec2010 $0.26
Dec2009 -$0.28
Dec2008 -$0.36
Dec2007 -$0.07
Dec2006 $1.17
Dec2005 $0.65
Dec2004 $0.15
Dec2003 -$1.00

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.96
Dec2015 $0.83
Dec2014 $0.71
Dec2013 $0.68
Dec2012 $0.42
Dec2011 $0.23
Dec2010 $0.01
Dec2009 $0.00
Dec2008 $0.19
Dec2007 $0.37
Dec2006 $0.46
Dec2005 $0.06
Dec2004 -$0.22
Dec2003 -$0.33

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

American Campus Communities Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $ACC

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

SL Green Realty Corp Valuation – August 2016 $SLG
Starwood Property Trust Inc Valuation – August 2016 $STWD
Kimco Realty Corp Valuation – August 2016 $KIM
Equity Residential Valuation – August 2016 $EQR
Host Hotels and Resorts Inc Valuation – July 2016 $HST
Iron Mountain Inc Valuation – July 2016 $IRM
Vornado Realty Trust Valuation – July 2016 $VNO
Public Storage Valuation – July 2016 $PSA
Macerich Co Valuation – July 2016 $MAC
HCP Inc Valuation – July 2016 $HCP

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Campbell Soup Company Valuation – July 2016 $CPB

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – June 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Campbell Soup Company (CPB) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Campbell Soup Company is a food company, which manufactures and markets food products. The Company’s segments include Americas Simple Meals and Beverages; Global Biscuits and Snacks, and Campbell Fresh. The Americas Simple Meals and Beverages segment includes the retail and food service channel businesses. The segment includes the products, such as Campbell’s condensed and ready-to-serve soups; Swanson broth and stocks; Prego pasta sauces; Pace Mexican sauces; Campbell’s gravies, pasta, beans and dinner sauces; Plum food and snacks; V8 juices and beverages, and Campbell’s tomato juice. The Global Biscuits and Snacks segment includes Pepperidge Farm cookies, crackers, bakery and frozen products; Arnott’s biscuits, and Kelsen cookies. The Campbell Fresh segment includes Bolthouse Farms fresh carrots, carrot ingredients, refrigerated beverages and refrigerated salad dressings; Garden Fresh Gourmet salsa, hummus, dips and tortilla chips, and the United States refrigerated soup business.

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CPB – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $20,589,876,640 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.86 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 0.82% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 28.88 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 12.36 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.86 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -7.62 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

CPB value chart July 2016

EPSmg $2.31
MG Growth Estimate -0.65%
MG Value $16.60
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $33.45
MG Value based on 0% Growth $19.61
Market Implied Growth Rate 10.19%
Current Price $66.62
% of Intrinsic Value 401.25%

Campbell Soup Company does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.41 in 2012 to an estimated $2.31 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 10.19% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Campbell Soup Company scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

CPB charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$14.03
Graham Number $17.60
PEmg 28.88
Current Ratio 0.86
PB Ratio 12.36
Current Dividend $1.25
Dividend Yield 1.87%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 4/1/2016
Total Current Assets $2,042,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,377,000,000
Long-Term Debt $2,552,000,000
Total Assets $8,081,000,000
Intangible Assets $3,574,000,000
Total Liabilities $6,405,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 311,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.54
Jul2015 $2.21
Jul2014 $2.59
Jul2013 $1.44
Jul2012 $2.41
Jul2011 $2.42
Jul2010 $2.42
Jul2009 $2.06
Jul2008 $3.06
Jul2007 $2.16
Jul2006 $1.85
Jul2005 $1.71
Jul2004 $1.57
Jul2003 $1.45
Jul2002 $1.28
Jul2001 $1.55
Jul2000 $1.65
Jul1999 $1.63
Jul1998 $1.44
Jul1997 $1.51
Jul1996 $1.61

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.31
Jul2015 $2.20
Jul2014 $2.21
Jul2013 $2.07
Jul2012 $2.41
Jul2011 $2.42
Jul2010 $2.38
Jul2009 $2.30
Jul2008 $2.30
Jul2007 $1.86
Jul2006 $1.67
Jul2005 $1.55
Jul2004 $1.48
Jul2003 $1.46
Jul2002 $1.48
Jul2001 $1.58
Jul2000 $1.58

Recommended Reading:

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Cameron International Company Valuation – May 2016 $CAM

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – March 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Cameron International Company (CAM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Cameron International Corporation (Cameron), incorporated on November 10, 1994, provides flow equipment products, systems and services to worldwide oil, gas and process industries. The Company operates through four business segments: Subsea, Surface, Drilling and Valves & Measurement (V&M). The Subsea segment delivers integrated solutions, products, systems and services to the subsea oil and gas market, including integrated subsea production systems. Cameron’s Surface segment designs and manufactures wellhead and Christmas tree systemsfor onshore and offshore topside applications – from conventional to high-pressure, high temperature systems, to specialized systems for dry completions and heavy oil. The Drilling segment is a global supplier of integrated drilling systems. The V&M segment’s businesses provide valves and measurement systems. Its businesses serve portions of the upstream, midstream and downstream markets.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CAM – May 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $12,479,572,538 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.22 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 13.95% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 26.79 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.80 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.22 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.65 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

CAM value Chart May 2016

EPSmg $2.47
MG Growth Estimate -0.01%
MG Value $20.94
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $35.82
MG Value based on 0% Growth $21.00
Market Implied Growth Rate 9.14%
Current Price $66.16
% of Intrinsic Value 316.03%

Cameron International Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.47 in 2012 to an estimated $2.47 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 9.14% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Cameron International Corporation scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

CAM Charts May 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.89
Graham Number $25.36
PEmg 26.79
Current Ratio 2.22
PB Ratio 2.80
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2015
Total Current Assets $7,118,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,206,000,000
Long-term Debt $2,542,000,000
Total Assets $11,500,000,000
Intangible Assets $2,346,000,000
Total Liabilities $6,946,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 193,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.20
12/1/2015 $2.60
12/1/2014 $3.96
12/1/2013 $2.87
12/1/2012 $3.03
12/1/2011 $2.09
12/1/2010 $2.27
12/1/2009 $2.11
12/1/2008 $2.54
12/1/2007 $2.16
12/1/2006 $1.36
12/1/2005 $0.76
12/1/2004 $0.44
12/1/2003 $0.31
12/1/2002 $0.28
12/1/2001 $0.44
12/1/2000 $0.13
12/1/1999 $0.20
12/1/1998 $0.62
12/1/1997 $0.63
12/1/1996 $0.30

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.47
12/1/2015 $3.04
12/1/2014 $3.12
12/1/2013 $2.63
12/1/2012 $2.47
12/1/2011 $2.21
12/1/2010 $2.21
12/1/2009 $2.04
12/1/2008 $1.83
12/1/2007 $1.31
12/1/2006 $0.80
12/1/2005 $0.50
12/1/2004 $0.35
12/1/2003 $0.29
12/1/2002 $0.30
12/1/2001 $0.34
12/1/2000 $0.32

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Cameron International Company Analysis – September 2015 Update $CAM
Cameron International Analysis – June 2015 Update $CAM
24 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/28/15
Cameron International Corporation Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $CAM
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/20/14

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Cameron International Company Analysis – September 2015 Update $CAM

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – August 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Cameron International Company (CAM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Cameron International Corporation (Cameron), incorporated on November 10, 1994, provides flow equipment products, systems and services to worldwide oil, gas and process industries. The Company operates through four business segments: Subsea, Surface, Drilling and Valves & Measurement (V&M). The Subsea segment delivers integrated solutions, products, systems and services to the subsea oil and gas market, including integrated subsea production systems. Cameron’s Surface segment designs and manufactures wellhead and Christmas tree systemsfor onshore and offshore topside applications – from conventional to high-pressure, high temperature systems, to specialized systems for dry completions and heavy oil. The Drilling segment is a global supplier of integrated drilling systems. The V&M segment’s businesses provide valves and measurement systems. Its businesses serve portions of the upstream, midstream and downstream markets.

[level-free]

To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CAM – September 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $12,245,422,608 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.19 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 52.29% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 21.30 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.78 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.19 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.72 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

CAM value Chart September 2015

EPSmg $3.00
MG Growth Estimate 5.33%
MG Value $57.53
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $43.53
MG Value based on 0% Growth $25.52
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.40%
Current Price $63.94
% of Intrinsic Value 111.13%

Cameron International Company qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the lack of dividends, and the high PEmg and PB ratios, while the Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned by the lack of dividends.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.21 in 2011 to an estimated $3.00 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 6.4% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Cameron International Company (CAM)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

CAM Charts September 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$0.83
Graham Number $35.95
PEmg 21.30
Current Ratio 2.19
PB Ratio 2.78
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

 

[/level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $7,155,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,262,000,000
Long-Term Debt $2,813,000,000
Total Assets $11,732,000,000
Intangible Assets $2,563,000,000
Total Liabilities $7,315,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 192,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.49
Dec14 $3.96
Dec13 $2.87
Dec12 $3.02
Dec11 $2.09
Dec10 $2.27
Dec09 $2.11
Dec08 $2.60
Dec07 $2.16
Dec06 $1.36
Dec05 $0.76
Dec04 $0.44
Dec03 $0.31
Dec02 $0.28
Dec01 $0.44
Dec00 $0.13
Dec99 $0.20
Dec98 $0.62
Dec97 $0.63
Dec96 $0.60
Dec95 -$2.50

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.00
Dec14 $3.12
Dec13 $2.62
Dec12 $2.47
Dec11 $2.21
Dec10 $2.22
Dec09 $2.06
Dec08 $1.85
Dec07 $1.31
Dec06 $0.80
Dec05 $0.50
Dec04 $0.35
Dec03 $0.29
Dec02 $0.30
Dec01 $0.34
Dec00 $0.34
Dec99 $0.27

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Cameron International Analysis – June 2015 Update $CAM
24 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/28/15
Cameron International Corporation Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $CAM
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/20/14
Cameron International Corporation Quarterly Valuation – December 2014 $CAM

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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