Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – March 2019 #CMG

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Chipotle), incorporated on January 30, 1998, together with its subsidiaries, operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The Company’s Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants serve a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. As of December 31, 2016, the Company managed its operations and restaurants based on 11 regions. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated 2,198 Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, as well as 29 international Chipotle restaurants, and it also had 23 restaurants in operation in other non-Chipotle concepts. As of December 31, 2016, 29 of its restaurants were located outside of the United States, with 17 in Canada, six in the United Kingdom, five in France and one in Frankfurt, Germany. The Company sells gift cards, which do not have an expiration date.

CMG Chart

CMG data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CMG – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $18,600,677,500 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.81 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 11.30% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 87.26 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 13.05 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.81 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $7.71
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $111.83
MG Value based on 0% Growth $65.56
Market Implied Growth Rate 39.38%
Current Price $672.98
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $12.51 in 2015 to an estimated $7.71 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 39.38% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $113.79. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 87.26, which was above the industry average of 33.53. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-0.34.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$0.34
Graham Number $113.79
PEmg 87.26
Current Ratio 1.81
PB Ratio 13.05
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $814,794,000
Total Current Liabilities $449,990,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $2,265,518,000
Intangible Assets $21,939,000
Total Liabilities $824,179,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 27,947,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $11.06
Dec2018 $6.31
Dec2017 $6.17
Dec2016 $0.77
Dec2015 $15.10
Dec2014 $14.13
Dec2013 $10.47
Dec2012 $8.75
Dec2011 $6.76
Dec2010 $5.64
Dec2009 $3.95
Dec2008 $2.36
Dec2007 $2.13
Dec2006 $1.28
Dec2005 $1.43
Dec2004 $0.24
Dec2003 -$0.34
Dec2002 -$0.87
Dec2001 -$1.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.71
Dec2018 $6.86
Dec2017 $7.86
Dec2016 $9.09
Dec2015 $12.51
Dec2014 $10.53
Dec2013 $8.19
Dec2012 $6.53
Dec2011 $5.00
Dec2010 $3.77
Dec2009 $2.64
Dec2008 $1.82
Dec2007 $1.35
Dec2006 $0.75
Dec2005 $0.26
Dec2004 -$0.38
Dec2003 -$0.64

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – June 2018 $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – March 2017 $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – August 2016 $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Group Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $CMG

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Darden Restaurants Inc Valuation – March 2019 #DRI
Yum Brands Inc Valuation – February 2019 $YUM
Starbucks Corporation Valuation – January 2019 $SBUX
McDonald’s Corp Valuation – November 2018 $MCD
Sonic Corp Valuation – August 2018 $SONC
Jack in the Box Inc Valuation – July 2018 $JACK
Chuy’s Holdings Inc Valuation – July 2018 $CHUY
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – June 2018 $CMG
Darden Restaurants Inc Valuation – May 2018 $DRI
Yum Brands Inc Valuation – April 2018 $YUM

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – June 2018 $CMG

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Chipotle), incorporated on January 30, 1998, together with its subsidiaries, operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The Company’s Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants serve a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. As of December 31, 2016, the Company managed its operations and restaurants based on 11 regions. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated 2,198 Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, as well as 29 international Chipotle restaurants, and it also had 23 restaurants in operation in other non-Chipotle concepts. As of December 31, 2016, 29 of its restaurants were located outside of the United States, with 17 in Canada, six in the United Kingdom, five in France and one in Frankfurt, Germany. The Company sells gift cards, which do not have an expiration date.

CMG Chart

CMG data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CMG – June 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $13,061,212,606 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.72 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -9.85% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 63.90 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 9.63 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.72 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $7.35
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $106.64
MG Value based on 0% Growth $62.51
Market Implied Growth Rate 27.70%
Current Price $469.94
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $10.53 in 2014 to an estimated $7.35 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 27.7% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $92.43. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 63.9, which was above the industry average of 28.54. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.68.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$3.68
Graham Number $92.43
PEmg 63.90
Current Ratio 1.72
PB Ratio 9.63
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $630,439,000
Total Current Liabilities $367,320,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $2,097,444,000
Intangible Assets $21,939,000
Total Liabilities $733,399,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 27,950,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.80
Dec2017 $6.17
Dec2016 $0.77
Dec2015 $15.10
Dec2014 $14.13
Dec2013 $10.47
Dec2012 $8.75
Dec2011 $6.76
Dec2010 $5.64
Dec2009 $3.95
Dec2008 $2.36
Dec2007 $2.13
Dec2006 $1.28
Dec2005 $1.43
Dec2004 $0.24
Dec2003 -$0.34
Dec2002 -$0.87
Dec2001 -$1.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.35
Dec2017 $7.86
Dec2016 $9.09
Dec2015 $12.51
Dec2014 $10.53
Dec2013 $8.19
Dec2012 $6.53
Dec2011 $5.00
Dec2010 $3.77
Dec2009 $2.64
Dec2008 $1.82
Dec2007 $1.35
Dec2006 $0.75
Dec2005 $0.26
Dec2004 -$0.38
Dec2003 -$0.64
Dec2002 -$0.69

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – March 2017 $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – August 2016 $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Group Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $CMG

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Darden Restaurants Inc Valuation – May 2018 $DRI
Yum Brands Inc Valuation – April 2018 $YUM
Starbucks Corporation Valuation – March 2018 $SBUX
McDonald’s Corporation Valuation – February 2018 $MCD
El Pollo LoCo Holdings Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $LOCO
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – March 2017 $CMG
Sonic Corporation Valuation – Initial Coverage $SONC
Darden Restaurants Inc Valuation – February 2017 $DRI
Jack in the Box Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $JACK
Chuy’s Holdings Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CHUY

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – March 2017 $CMG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Chipotle Mexican Group Inc (CMG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Chipotle), together with its subsidiaries, operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The Company’s Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants serve a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. As of December 31, 2016, the Company managed its operations and restaurants based on 11 regions. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated 2,198 Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, as well as 29 international Chipotle restaurants, and it also had 23 restaurants in operation in other non-Chipotle concepts. As of December 31, 2016, 29 of its restaurants were located outside of the United States, with 17 in Canada, six in the United Kingdom, five in France and one in Frankfurt, Germany. The Company sells gift cards, which do not have an expiration date. The Company categorizes its restaurants as end-caps (at the end of a line of retail outlets), in-lines (in a line of retail outlets), free-standing or other.

CMG Chart

CMG data by YCharts

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CMG – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $11,871,606,267 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.85 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 82.34% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 53.21 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 8.79 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.85 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $7.78
MG Growth Estimate -0.75%
MG Value $54.45
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $112.82
MG Value based on 0% Growth $66.14
Market Implied Growth Rate 22.36%
Current Price $414.02
% of Intrinsic Value 760.35%

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $8.19 in 2013 to an estimated $7.78 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 22.36% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $80.53. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 53.21, which was above the industry average of 31.3. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.4.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$3.40
Graham Number $80.53
PEmg 53.21
Current Ratio 1.85
PB Ratio 8.79
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $522,374,000
Total Current Liabilities $281,793,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $2,026,103,000
Intangible Assets $21,939,000
Total Liabilities $623,610,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 29,770,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.92
Dec2016 $0.77
Dec2015 $15.10
Dec2014 $14.13
Dec2013 $10.47
Dec2012 $8.75
Dec2011 $6.76
Dec2010 $5.64
Dec2009 $3.95
Dec2008 $2.36
Dec2007 $2.13
Dec2006 $1.28
Dec2005 $1.43
Dec2004 $0.24
Dec2003 -$0.34
Dec2002 -$0.87
Dec2001 -$1.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.78
Dec2016 $9.09
Dec2015 $12.51
Dec2014 $10.53
Dec2013 $8.19
Dec2012 $6.53
Dec2011 $5.00
Dec2010 $3.77
Dec2009 $2.64
Dec2008 $1.82
Dec2007 $1.35
Dec2006 $0.75
Dec2005 $0.26
Dec2004 -$0.38
Dec2003 -$0.64
Dec2002 -$0.69
Dec2001 -$0.50

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Group Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $CMG
21 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/9/15
Chipolte Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $CMG

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Sonic Corporation Valuation – Initial Coverage $SONC
Darden Restaurants Inc Valuation – February 2017 $DRI
Jack in the Box Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $JACK
Chuy’s Holdings Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CHUY
Yum Brands Inc Valuation – December 2016 $YUM
McDonald’s Corp Valuation – November 2016 $MCD
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – August 2016 $CMG
Yum! Brands Inc Valuation – August 2016 $YUM
Starbucks Corp Valuation – June 2016 $SBUX
McDonald’s Corporation Valuation – May 2016 $MCD

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Valuation – August 2016 $CMG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The Company’s Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants serve a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. The Company operates approximately 1,970 Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, over 10 in Canada, seven in England, four in France and one in Germany. The Company’s restaurants include over 10 ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen restaurants, serving Asian-inspired cuisine. The Company owned and operated approximately three Pizzeria Locale restaurants, a fast casual pizza concept, resulting in a totaling of approximately 2,010 restaurants. The Company sells gift cards which do not have an expiration date.

CMG Chart

CMG data by YCharts

[level-free]
To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[not-level-free]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CMG – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $12,016,074,858 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.40 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 272.87% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 42.36 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 8.01 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.40 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

CMG value chart August 2016

EPSmg $9.58
MG Growth Estimate 7.00%
MG Value $215.49
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $138.89
MG Value based on 0% Growth $81.42
Market Implied Growth Rate 16.93%
Current Price $405.80
% of Intrinsic Value 188.31%

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the low current ratio, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.53 in 2012 to an estimated $9.58 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 16.93% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $50.69. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 42.36, which was above the industry average of 30.22. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-7.77.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

CMG charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$7.77
Graham Number $50.69
PEmg 42.36
Current Ratio 1.40
PB Ratio 8.01
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Total Current Assets $387,707,000
Total Current Liabilities $276,528,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $2,101,800,000
Intangible Assets $21,939,000
Total Liabilities $615,757,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 29,340,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.24
Dec2015 $15.10
Dec2014 $14.13
Dec2013 $10.47
Dec2012 $8.75
Dec2011 $6.76
Dec2010 $5.64
Dec2009 $3.95
Dec2008 $2.36
Dec2007 $2.13
Dec2006 $1.28
Dec2005 $1.43
Dec2004 $0.24
Dec2003 -$0.34
Dec2002 -$0.87
Dec2001 -$1.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $9.58
Dec2015 $12.51
Dec2014 $10.53
Dec2013 $8.19
Dec2012 $6.53
Dec2011 $5.00
Dec2010 $3.77
Dec2009 $2.64
Dec2008 $1.82
Dec2007 $1.35
Dec2006 $0.75
Dec2005 $0.26
Dec2004 -$0.38
Dec2003 -$0.64
Dec2002 -$0.69
Dec2001 -$0.50

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Chipotle Mexican Group Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $CMG
21 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/9/15
Chipolte Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $CMG
40 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/21/15

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Yum! Brands Inc Valuation – August 2016 $YUM
Starbucks Corp Valuation – June 2016 $SBUX
McDonald’s Corporation Valuation – May 2016 $MCD
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $CMG
McDonald’s Corporation – November 2015 Update $MCD
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $CMG
McDonald’s Corporation – November 2015 Update $MCD
Chipotle Mexican Group Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $CMG
Darden Restaurants Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $DRI
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $CMG

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $CMG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – February 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Chipotle) develops and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which serve a focused menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. The Company operates 1,755 restaurants in the United States, seven in Canada, six in England, three in France, and one in Germany. The Company’s restaurants also include nine ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen restaurants. The Company owns and operates two Pizzeria Locale restaurants, a fast casual pizza concept. It also provides a variety of extras, such as guacamole, salsas and tortilla chips seasoned with fresh lime juice and kosher salt. Its restaurants also offer sodas, fruit drinks, organic milk, beer and margaritas. The average restaurant size is about 2,550 square feet and seats about 58 people. The Company’s restaurants also feature outdoor patio space. The Company’s restaurants accept orders by fax, online or through an iPhone or Android ordering application.

[level-free]

To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[not-level-free]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CMG

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $15,417,534,039 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.91 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 313.51% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 45.95 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 7.29 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.91 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

CMG value chart February 2016

EPSmg $10.72
MG Growth Estimate 9.62%
MG Value $297.52
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $155.47
MG Value based on 0% Growth $91.14
Market Implied Growth Rate 18.73%
Current Price $492.68
% of Intrinsic Value 165.59%

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.53 in 2012 to an estimated $10.72 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 18.73% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

CMG charts February 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $6.91
Graham Number $94.22
PEmg 45.95
Current Ratio 2.91
PB Ratio 7.29
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information Dec2015
Total Current Assets $814,647,000
Total Current Liabilities $279,942,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $2,725,066,000
Intangible Assets $21,939,000
Total Liabilities $597,092,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 31,494,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.67
Dec2015 $15.10
Dec2014 $14.13
Dec2013 $10.47
Dec2012 $8.75
Dec2011 $6.76
Dec2010 $5.64
Dec2009 $3.95
Dec2008 $2.36
Dec2007 $2.13
Dec2006 $1.28
Dec2005 $1.43
Dec2004 $0.24
Dec2003 -$0.34
Dec2002 -$0.87
Dec2001 -$1.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $10.72
Dec2015 $12.51
Dec2014 $10.53
Dec2013 $8.19
Dec2012 $6.53
Dec2011 $5.00
Dec2010 $3.77
Dec2009 $2.64
Dec2008 $1.82
Dec2007 $1.35
Dec2006 $0.75
Dec2005 $0.26
Dec2004 -$0.38
Dec2003 -$0.64
Dec2002 -$0.69
Dec2001 -$0.50

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Chipotle Mexican Group Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $CMG
21 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/9/15
Chipolte Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $CMG
40 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/21/15

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

McDonald’s Corporation – November 2015 Update $MCD
Chipotle Mexican Group Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $CMG
Darden Restaurants Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $DRI
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $CMG
Chipolte Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $CMG
Yum! Brands Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $YUM
Starbucks Corporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $SBUX
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $CMG
McDonald’s Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $MCD
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – October 2014 $CMG

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Chipotle Mexican Group Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $CMG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – October 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Chipotle Mexican Group Inc. (CMG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Chipotle) develops and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which serve a focused menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. The Company operates 1,755 restaurants in the United States, seven in Canada, six in England, three in France, and one in Germany. The Company’s restaurants also include nine ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen restaurants. The Company owns and operates two Pizzeria Locale restaurants, a fast casual pizza concept. It also provides a variety of extras, such as guacamole, salsas and tortilla chips seasoned with fresh lime juice and kosher salt. Its restaurants also offer sodas, fruit drinks, organic milk, beer and margaritas. The average restaurant size is about 2,550 square feet and seats about 58 people. The Company’s restaurants also feature outdoor patio space. The Company’s restaurants accept orders by fax, online or through an iPhone or Android ordering application.

[level-free]

To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CMG – November 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $19,049,865,118 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 4.39 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 616.64% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 46.68 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 8.01 Fail
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 4.39 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

CMG value Chart November 2015

EPSmg $13.06
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $502.91
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $189.41
MG Value based on 0% Growth $111.03
Market Implied Growth Rate 19.09%
Current Price $609.73
% of Intrinsic Value 121.24%

Chipotle Mexican Group Inc. qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the lack of dividends and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned with the lack of dividends.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.00 in 2011 to an estimated $13.06 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 19.09% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Chipotle Mexican Group Inc. (CMG)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

CMG Charts November 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $16.70
Graham Number $170.35
PEmg 46.68
Current Ratio 4.39
PB Ratio 8.01
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

 

[/level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $1,073,233,000
Total Current Liabilities $244,244,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $2,947,922,000
Intangible Assets $21,939,000
Total Liabilities $546,434,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 31,548,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $16.75
Dec14 $14.13
Dec13 $10.47
Dec12 $8.75
Dec11 $6.76
Dec10 $5.64
Dec09 $3.95
Dec08 $2.36
Dec07 $2.13
Dec06 $1.28
Dec05 $1.43
Dec04 $0.24
Dec03 -$0.34
Dec02 -$0.87
Dec01 -$1.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $13.06
Dec14 $10.53
Dec13 $8.19
Dec12 $6.53
Dec11 $5.00
Dec10 $3.77
Dec09 $2.64
Dec08 $1.82
Dec07 $1.35
Dec06 $0.75
Dec05 $0.26
Dec04 -$0.38
Dec03 -$0.64
Dec02 -$0.69
Dec01 -$0.50

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $CMG
21 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/9/15
Chipolte Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $CMG
40 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 2/21/15
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $CMG

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Darden Restaurants Inc. Analysis – September 2015 Update $DRI
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $CMG
Chipolte Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $CMG
Yum! Brands Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $YUM
Starbucks Corporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $SBUX
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $CMG
McDonald’s Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $MCD
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – October 2014 $CMG
Darden Restaurants Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $DRI
Chipolte Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $CMG

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $CMG

CMGBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – July 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Chipotle) develops and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which serve a focused menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. The Company operates 1,755 restaurants in the United States, seven in Canada, six in England, three in France, and one in Germany. The Company’s restaurants also include nine ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen restaurants. The Company owns and operates two Pizzeria Locale restaurants, a fast casual pizza concept. It also provides a variety of extras, such as guacamole, salsas and tortilla chips seasoned with fresh lime juice and kosher salt. Its restaurants also offer sodas, fruit drinks, organic milk, beer and margaritas. The average restaurant size is about 2,550 square feet and seats about 58 people. The Company’s restaurants also feature outdoor patio space. The Company’s restaurants accept orders by fax, online or through an iPhone or Android ordering application.

[level-free]
To read the rest of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.
[/level-free]
[level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – FAIL
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $749.85
MG Value $503.55
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $189.65
Value Based on 0% Growth $111.17
Market Implied Growth Rate 24.42%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $13.78
PEmg 57.33
Current Ratio 3.79
PB Ratio 10.49

Balance Sheet – June 2015

Current Assets $989,000,000
Current Liabilities $261,000,000
Total Debt $0
Total Assets $2,806,000,000
Intangible Assets $22,000,000
Total Liabilities $555,000,000
Outstanding Shares 31,500,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $16.80
2014 $14.13
2013 $10.47
2012 $8.75
2011 $6.76
2010 $5.64
2009 $3.95
2008 $2.36
2007 $2.13
2006 $1.28
2005 $1.43

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $13.08
2014 $10.53
2013 $8.19
2012 $6.53
2011 $5.00
2010 $3.77

Dividend History
Chipotle does not pay a dividend.

Free Cash Flow

Conclusion:

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the lack of dividends and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned with the lack of dividends.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.00 in 2011 to an estimated $13.08 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 24.42% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

[/level-mg-stocks-screens-subscriber]

Chipolte Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – May 2015 $CMG

CMGBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – April 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Chipotle) develops and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which serve a focused menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. The Company operates 1,755 restaurants in the United States, seven in Canada, six in England, three in France, and one in Germany. The Company’s restaurants also include nine ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen restaurants. The Company owns and operates two Pizzeria Locale restaurants, a fast casual pizza concept. It also provides a variety of extras, such as guacamole, salsas and tortilla chips seasoned with fresh lime juice and kosher salt. Its restaurants also offer sodas, fruit drinks, organic milk, beer and margaritas. The average restaurant size is about 2,550 square feet and seats about 58 people. The Company’s restaurants also feature outdoor patio space. The Company’s restaurants accept orders by fax, online or through an iPhone or Android ordering application.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – FAIL
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $635.48
MG Value $503.04
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $189.46
Value Based on 0% Growth $111.06
Market Implied Growth Rate 20.07%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $13.16
PEmg 48.64
Current Ratio 3.56
PB Ratio 9.41

Balance Sheet – March 2015

Current Assets $985,000,000
Current Liabilities $277,000,000
Total Debt $0
Total Assets $2,704,000,000
Intangible Assets $22,000,000
Total Liabilities $569,000,000
Outstanding Shares 31,600,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $16.76
2014 $14.13
2013 $10.47
2012 $8.75
2011 $6.76
2010 $5.64
2009 $3.95
2008 $2.36
2007 $2.13
2006 $1.28
2005 $1.43

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $13.07
2014 $10.53
2013 $8.19
2012 $6.53
2011 $5.00
2010 $3.77

Dividend History
Chipotle does not pay a dividend.

Conclusion:

Chipotle is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not for the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the lack of dividends, and the high PEmg and PB ratios, while the Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be overvalued despite growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.00 in 2011 to an estimated $13.07 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 20.07% earnings growth as such a high growth rate is generally unsustainable over a long period of time and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $CMG

CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the Defensive Investor, who is concerned with the lack of dividend payments and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor, on the other hand, is only initially concerned by the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, the company has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.77 in 2010 to $10.53 for 2014. This is a very strong level of demonstrated growth but no growth that high is sustainable. Historical growth is actually around 35.8%, and the market has priced in an expected decrease to only 27.8% but even that is not achievable over a 7-10 year period. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model returns an estimate of intrinsic value falling below the current price, indicating the company is overvalued at the present time.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) for greater perspective!

Read the full valuation on Seeking Alpha!

CMG Chart

CMG data by YCharts

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Quarterly Valuation – October 2014 $CMG

CMG

Though Chipotle satisfies the value investor’s appetite, the company does not satisfy the Defensive Investor’s requirements due to its lack of dividend payments and high PEmg and PB ratios. The company does, however, qualify for the less conservative Enterprising Investor whose only issue is the lack of dividend payments. As a result, Enterprising Investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

Determining the intrinsic value requires looking at the company’s earnings growth and examining the market’s implied estimate of further growth. The company has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.77 in 2010 to an estimated $10.37 for 2014. This level of demonstrated growth, while very impressive, does not support the market’s implied estimate for earnings growth of 26.13% over the next 7-10 years. The ModernGraham valuation model caps any estimate of growth at 15% as a margin of safety under the belief that any growth higher than that is not sustainable in the long-term. Therefore, the model returns an estimate of intrinsic value falling below the current price, indicating the company is overvalued at the present time.

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CMG Chart

CMG data by YCharts

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