EOG Resources Inc Valuation – February 2019 $EOG

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG), incorporated on June 12, 1985, together with its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas in major producing basins in the United States, The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (Trinidad), the United Kingdom, The People’s Republic of China (China), Canada and, from time to time, select other international areas. The Company’s operations are all crude oil and natural gas exploration and production related. As of December 31, 2016, the Company’s total estimated net proved reserves were 2,147 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe), of which 1178 million barrels (MMBbl) were crude oil and condensate reserves, 416 MMBbl were natural gas liquids (NGLs) reserves and 3318 billion cubic feet, or 553 MMBoe were natural gas reserves.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EOG – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $55,966,430,117 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.09 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 126.67% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 52.95 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.03 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.09 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 13.20 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.82
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $26.43
MG Value based on 0% Growth $15.49
Market Implied Growth Rate 22.22%
Current Price $96.51
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

EOG Resources Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.35 in 2014 to an estimated $1.82 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 22.22% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into EOG Resources Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $58.15. The company pays a dividend of $0.67 per share, for a yield of 0.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 52.95, which was above the industry average of 43.92. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-17.68.

EOG Resources Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$17.68
Graham Number $58.15
PEmg 52.95
Current Ratio 1.09
PB Ratio 3.03
Current Dividend $0.67
Dividend Yield 0.69%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $4,817,092,000
Total Current Liabilities $4,425,147,000
Long-Term Debt $5,171,949,000
Total Assets $33,637,736,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $15,099,266,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 581,559,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.34
Dec2017 $4.46
Dec2016 -$1.98
Dec2015 -$8.29
Dec2014 $5.32
Dec2013 $4.02
Dec2012 $1.05
Dec2011 $2.05
Dec2010 $0.32
Dec2009 $1.09
Dec2008 $4.86
Dec2007 $2.19
Dec2006 $2.62
Dec2005 $2.57
Dec2004 $1.29
Dec2003 $0.90
Dec2002 $0.16
Dec2001 $0.83
Dec2000 $0.81
Dec1999 $1.00
Dec1998 $0.09

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.82
Dec2017 $0.28
Dec2016 -$1.20
Dec2015 -$0.26
Dec2014 $3.35
Dec2013 $2.14
Dec2012 $1.43
Dec2011 $1.78
Dec2010 $1.83
Dec2009 $2.62
Dec2008 $3.15
Dec2007 $2.17
Dec2006 $1.95
Dec2005 $1.46
Dec2004 $0.87
Dec2003 $0.68
Dec2002 $0.58

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

EOG Resources Inc Valuation – April 2018 $EOG
EOG Resources Inc Valuation – July 2016 $EOG
EOG Resources Analysis – 2015 Annual Update $EOG
15 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/31/14
EOG Resources Inc. 2014 Annual Valuation $EOG

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

ConocoPhillips Valuation – February 2019 $COP
Devon Energy Corp Valuation – January 2019 $DVN
Noble Energy Inc Valuation – January 2019 $NBL
ONEOK Inc Valuation – January 2019 $OKE
Marathon Oil Corp Valuation – January 2019 $MRO
HollyFrontier Corp Valuation – January 2019 $HFC
Hess Corp Valuation – January 2019 $HES
Cimarex Energy Co Valuation – January 2019 $XEC
EQT Corp Valuation – January 2019 $EQT
Helmerich & Payne Inc Valuation – January 2019 $HP

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

EOG Resources Inc Valuation – April 2018 $EOG

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG), incorporated on June 12, 1985, together with its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas in major producing basins in the United States, The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (Trinidad), the United Kingdom, The People’s Republic of China (China), Canada and, from time to time, select other international areas. The Company’s operations are all crude oil and natural gas exploration and production related. As of December 31, 2016, the Company’s total estimated net proved reserves were 2,147 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe), of which 1178 million barrels (MMBbl) were crude oil and condensate reserves, 416 MMBbl were natural gas liquids (NGLs) reserves and 3318 billion cubic feet, or 553 MMBoe were natural gas reserves.

EOG Chart

EOG data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EOG – April 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $58,980,560,202 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.20 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 37.68% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 127.52 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.63 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.20 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 10.89 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.80
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $11.59
MG Value based on 0% Growth $6.79
Market Implied Growth Rate 59.51%
Current Price $101.93
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

EOG Resources Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.35 in 2014 to an estimated $0.8 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 59.51% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into EOG Resources Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $37.93. The company pays a dividend of $0.67 per share, for a yield of 0.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 127.52, which was above the industry average of 85.36. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-17.73.

EOG Resources Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$17.73
Graham Number $37.93
PEmg 127.52
Current Ratio 1.20
PB Ratio 3.63
Current Dividend $0.67
Dividend Yield 0.66%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $3,279,108,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,725,542,000
Long-Term Debt $6,030,836,000
Total Assets $29,833,078,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $13,549,805,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 579,413,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.27
Dec2017 $4.46
Dec2016 -$1.98
Dec2015 -$8.29
Dec2014 $5.32
Dec2013 $4.02
Dec2012 $1.05
Dec2011 $2.05
Dec2010 $0.32
Dec2009 $1.09
Dec2008 $4.86
Dec2007 $2.19
Dec2006 $2.62
Dec2005 $2.57
Dec2004 $1.29
Dec2003 $0.90
Dec2002 $0.16
Dec2001 $0.83
Dec2000 $0.81
Dec1999 $1.00
Dec1998 $0.09

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.80
Dec2017 $0.28
Dec2016 -$1.20
Dec2015 -$0.26
Dec2014 $3.35
Dec2013 $2.14
Dec2012 $1.43
Dec2011 $1.78
Dec2010 $1.83
Dec2009 $2.62
Dec2008 $3.15
Dec2007 $2.17
Dec2006 $1.95
Dec2005 $1.46
Dec2004 $0.87
Dec2003 $0.68
Dec2002 $0.58

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

EOG Resources Analysis – 2015 Annual Update $EOG
15 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/31/14
EOG Resources Inc. 2014 Annual Valuation $EOG

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

ConocoPhillips Valuation – April 2018 $COP
Devon Energy Corp Valuation – March 2018 $DVN
Noble Energy Inc Valuation – March 2018 $NBL
ONEOK Inc Valuation – March 2018 $OKE
Marathon Oil Corp Valuation – March 2018 $MRO
Hess Corp Valuation – March 2018 $HES
Cimarex Energy Co Valuation – Initial Coverage $XEC
EQT Corporation Valuation – March 2018 $EQT
Helmerich & Payne Inc Valuation – March 2018 $HP
Chesapeake Energy Corp Valuation – March 2018 $CHK

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

EOG Resources Inc Valuation – July 2016 $EOG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how EOG Resources Inc (EOG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas primarily in major producing basins in the United States, The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (Trinidad), the United Kingdom, The People’s Republic of China (China), Canada and, from time to time, select other international areas. The Company’s operations are all crude oil and natural gas exploration and production related. EOG’s total estimated net proved reserves include approximately 2,118 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe), of which over 1,098 million barrels (MMBbl) is crude oil and condensate reserves, approximately 383 MMBbl include natural gas liquids (NGLs) reserves and over 3,825 billion cubic feet, or 637 MMBoe, includes natural gas reserves. The Company’s operations are focused in most of the productive basins in the United States with a focus on crude oil and, to a lesser extent, liquids-rich natural gas plays.

[level-free]

To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Here is a free sample valuation pdf, and here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[not-level-free]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EOG – July 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $45,025,208,272 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.53 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -164.08% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -63.48 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.60 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.53 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 8.53 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EOG value chart July 2016

EPSmg -$1.29
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$18.66
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$10.94
Market Implied Growth Rate -35.99%
Current Price $81.70
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

EOG Resources Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.43 in 2012 to an estimated $-1.29 for 2016. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

EOG Resources Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

EOG charts July 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$21.16
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg -63.48
Current Ratio 1.53
PB Ratio 3.60
Current Dividend $0.67
Dividend Yield 0.82%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 18

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2016
Total Current Assets $2,365,812,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,547,972,000
Long-Term Debt $6,979,029,000
Total Assets $26,338,423,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $13,932,935,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 546,715,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$2.24
Dec2015 -$8.29
Dec2014 $5.32
Dec2013 $4.02
Dec2012 $1.06
Dec2011 $2.05
Dec2010 $0.32
Dec2009 $1.09
Dec2008 $4.86
Dec2007 $2.19
Dec2006 $2.62
Dec2005 $2.57
Dec2004 $1.29
Dec2003 $0.90
Dec2002 $0.16
Dec2001 $0.83
Dec2000 $0.81
Dec1999 $1.00
Dec1998 $0.09
Dec1997 $0.19
Dec1996 $0.22

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$1.29
Dec2015 -$0.26
Dec2014 $3.35
Dec2013 $2.15
Dec2012 $1.43
Dec2011 $1.78
Dec2010 $1.83
Dec2009 $2.62
Dec2008 $3.15
Dec2007 $2.17
Dec2006 $1.95
Dec2005 $1.46
Dec2004 $0.87
Dec2003 $0.68
Dec2002 $0.58
Dec2001 $0.72
Dec2000 $0.59

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

EOG Resources Analysis – 2015 Annual Update $EOG
15 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/31/14
EOG Resources Inc. 2014 Annual Valuation $EOG

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Baker Hughes Inc Valuation – July 2016 $BHI
Rowan Companies PLC Valuation – July 2016 $RDC
ConocoPhillips Valuation – July 2016 $COP
Devon Energy Corp Valuation – July 2016 $DVN
Noble Energy Inc Valuation – July 2016 $NBL
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc Valuation – July 2016 $DO
Nabors Industries Ltd Valuation – July 2016 $NBR
Transocean Ltd Valuation – July 2016 $RIG
ONEOK Inc Valuation – July 2016 $OKE
Marathon Oil Corp Valuation – July 2016 $MRO

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

EOG Resources Analysis – 2015 Annual Update $EOG

EOGBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – May 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how EOG Resources (EOG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): EOG Resources, Inc., together with its subsidiaries (collectively, EOG), explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas. The Company operates in producing basins in the United States, Canada, The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (Trinidad), the United Kingdom, The People’s Republic of China (China) and the Argentine Republic (Argentina), among others. EOG’s total estimated net proved reserves were approximately 2,119 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe), of which approximately 901 million barrels (MMBbl) were crude oil and condensate reserves, approximately 377 MMBbl were natural gas liquids (NGLs) reserves and approximately 5,045 billion cubic feet, or 841 MMBoe, were natural gas reserves. In the Eagle Ford, the Company produced net volumes of approximately 142 thousand barrels per day (MBbld) of crude oil and condensate. The Company is also engaged in drilling in the The Rocky Mountain area.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 2/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $88.75
MG Value $37.86
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $32.88
Value Based on 0% Growth $19.27
Market Implied Growth Rate 15.32%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$22.81
PEmg 39.14
Current Ratio 1.55
PB Ratio 2.77

Balance Sheet – March 2015

Current Assets $4,793,000,000
Current Liabilities $3,095,000,000
Total Debt $6,394,000,000
Total Assets $34,692,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $17,222,000,000
Outstanding Shares 545,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) -$0.70
2014 $5.32
2013 $4.02
2012 $1.06
2011 $2.05
2010 $0.32
2009 $1.09
2008 $4.86
2007 $2.19
2006 $2.62
2005 $2.57

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $2.27
2014 $3.35
2013 $2.15
2012 $1.43
2011 $1.78
2010 $1.84

Dividend History

Conclusion:

As this stock analysis shows, the company is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) grow from $1.78 in 2011 to only an estimated $2.27 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 15.32% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value well below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on EOG Resources (EOG)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

EOG Resources Inc. 2014 Annual Valuation $EOG

EOGBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Lowest PEmg Companies for Enterprising Investors.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): EOG Resources, Inc.(EOG) explores , develops, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas primarily in producing basins in the United States of America , Canada, The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (Trinidad), the United Kingdom , The People’s Republic of China (China), the Argentine Republic (Argentina) and, from time to time, select other international areas. As of December 31, 2012, EOG’s total estimated net proved reserves were 1,811 million barrels of oil equivalent, of which 701 million barrels were crude oil and condensate reserves, 320 million barrels were natural gas liquids (NGLs) reserves and 4,740 billion cubic feet, or 790 million barrels of oil equivalent, were natural gas. EOG’s operations are all crude oil and natural gas exploration and production related.

EOG Chart

EOG data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $104.73
MG Value $80.28
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $43.07
Value Based on 0% Growth $25.25
Market Implied Growth Rate 13.38%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$20.65
PEmg 35.26
Current Ratio 1.42
PB Ratio 3.57

Balance Sheet – 3/31/2014

Current Assets $4,822,500,000
Current Liabilities $3,395,600,000
Total Debt $5,903,000,000
Total Assets $32,141,300,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $16,108,000,000
Outstanding Shares 546,500,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $4.18
2013 $4.02
2012 $1.05
2011 $2.05
2010 $0.32
2009 $1.09
2008 $4.86
2007 $2.19
2006 $2.62
2005 $2.57
2004 $1.29

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $2.97
2013 $2.15
2012 $1.43
2011 $1.78
2010 $1.84
2009 $2.62

Dividend History

EOG Dividend Chart

EOG Dividend data by YCharts

Conclusion:

EOG Resources is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor has concerns with the low current ratio, the lack of sufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the high level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities through a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Exxon Mobil (XOM) and ModernGraham’s valuation of Chevron (CVX).  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.84 in 2010 to only an estimated $2.97 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 13.38% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model to return an estimate of intrinsic value that falls below the market price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on EOG Resources Inc. (EOG)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) or any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.

Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Cisco Systems Inc Valuation – April 2019 #CSCO

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Cisco Systems, Inc. (Cisco), incorporated on December 10, 1984, is engaged in designing and selling a range of technologies across networking, security, collaboration, applications and the cloud. The Company operates through three geographic segments: Americas; Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA); and Asia Pacific, Japan, and China (APJC).The Company’s product and technologies includes, infrastructure platforms; applications; security and other products. It also offers technical support services and advanced services.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CSCO – April 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $243,035,961,849 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.80 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 21.55% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 31.37 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 6.10 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.80 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.67 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.76
MG Growth Estimate 1.20%
MG Value $19.19
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $25.52
MG Value based on 0% Growth $14.96
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.43%
Current Price $55.21
% of Intrinsic Value 287.64%

Cisco Systems, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.63 in 2015 to an estimated $1.76 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 11.43% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Cisco Systems, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $24.85. The company pays a dividend of $1.24 per share, for a yield of 2.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 31.37, which was below the industry average of 69.29, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-1.9.

Cisco Systems, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$1.90
Graham Number $24.85
PEmg 31.37
Current Ratio 1.80
PB Ratio 6.10
Current Dividend $1.24
Dividend Yield 2.25%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 1/1/2019
Total Current Assets $53,117,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $29,479,000,000
Long-Term Debt $15,893,000,000
Total Assets $102,462,000,000
Intangible Assets $35,563,000,000
Total Liabilities $61,673,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 4,505,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.93
Jul2018 $0.02
Jul2017 $1.90
Jul2016 $2.11
Jul2015 $1.75
Jul2014 $1.49
Jul2013 $1.86
Jul2012 $1.49
Jul2011 $1.17
Jul2010 $1.33
Jul2009 $1.05
Jul2008 $1.31
Jul2007 $1.17
Jul2006 $0.89
Jul2005 $0.87
Jul2004 $0.62
Jul2003 $0.50
Jul2002 $0.25
Jul2001 -$0.14
Jul2000 $0.36
Jul1999 $0.29

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.76
Jul2018 $1.27
Jul2017 $1.87
Jul2016 $1.82
Jul2015 $1.63
Jul2014 $1.54
Jul2013 $1.50
Jul2012 $1.30
Jul2011 $1.21
Jul2010 $1.20
Jul2009 $1.11
Jul2008 $1.08
Jul2007 $0.92
Jul2006 $0.74
Jul2005 $0.58
Jul2004 $0.40
Jul2003 $0.27

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Cisco Systems Inc Valuation – November 2018 $CSCO
Cisco Systems Inc Valuation – February 2018 $CSCO
5 Undervalued Dow Components to Research – March 2017
10 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Dividend Stock Investor – February 2017
5 Undervalued Dow Components to Research – February 2017

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Salesforce.com Inc Valuation – March 2019 #CRM
Akamai Technologies Inc Valuation – February 2019 $AKAM
Accenture PLC Valuation – February 2019 $ACN
Fortinet Inc Valuation – February 2019 $FTNT
Synopsys Inc Valuation – February 2019 $SNPS
Symantec Corp Valuation – February 2019 $SYMC
Intuit Inc Valuation – February 2019 $INTU
Adobe Inc Valuation – February 2019 $ADBE
Autodesk Inc Valuation – February 2019 $ADSK
F5 Networks Inc Valuation – February 2019 $FFIV

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Capri Holdings Inc Valuation – April 2019 #CPRI

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Capri Holdings Limited, formerly Michael Kors Holdings Limited, incorporated on December 13, 2002, is a designer, marketer, distributor and retailer of branded women’s apparel and accessories and men’s apparel bearing the Michael Kors tradename and related trademarks MICHAEL KORS, MICHAEL MICHAEL KORS, and various other related trademarks and logos. The Company operates through three segments: retail, wholesale and licensing. The Retail operations consist of collection stores and lifestyle stores, including concessions and outlet stores, located primarily in the Americas (the United States, Canada and Latin America), Europe and Asia, as well as e-commerce. Wholesale revenues are principally derived from major department and specialty stores located throughout the Americas, Europe and Asia. The Company licenses its trademarks on products, such as fragrances, beauty, eyewear, leather goods, jewelry, watches, coats, men’s suits, swimwear, furs and ties, as well as through geographic licenses.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CPRI – April 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $7,413,375,503 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.48 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 737.59% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 12.62 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.26 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.48 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.95 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.90
MG Growth Estimate 5.84%
MG Value $78.64
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $56.51
MG Value based on 0% Growth $33.13
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.06%
Current Price $49.19
% of Intrinsic Value 62.55%

Capri Holdings Ltd qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.81 in 2015 to an estimated $3.9 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.06% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Capri Holdings Ltd revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $34.96. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.62, which was below the industry average of 46.49, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-2.14.

Capri Holdings Ltd performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$2.14
Graham Number $34.96
PEmg 12.62
Current Ratio 2.48
PB Ratio 3.26
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $3,439,500,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,387,400,000
Long-Term Debt $1,954,700,000
Total Assets $6,028,400,000
Intangible Assets $1,912,900,000
Total Liabilities $3,761,300,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 150,268,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.03
Mar2018 $3.82
Mar2017 $3.29
Mar2016 $4.44
Mar2015 $4.28
Mar2014 $3.22
Mar2013 $1.97
Mar2012 $0.78
Mar2011 $0.33
Mar2010 $0.22

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.90
Mar2018 $3.82
Mar2017 $3.70
Mar2016 $3.58
Mar2015 $2.81
Mar2014 $1.81
Mar2013 $0.96
Mar2012 $0.39
Mar2011 $0.17
Mar2010 $0.07

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd Valuation – March 2018 $KORS
10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017
10 Low PE Stock Picks for the Enterprising Investor – July 2017
5 Undervalued Companies for Value Investors with a Low Beta – July 2017
10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – July 2017

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Ralph Lauren Corp Valuation – March 2019 #RL
Gap Inc Valuation – March 2019 #GPS
PVH Corp Valuation – February 2019 $PVH
VF Corp Valuation – February 2019 $VFC
Foot Locker Inc Valuation – January 2019 $FL
Under Armour Inc Valuation – January 2019 $UA
Hanesbrands Inc Valuation – January 2019 $HBI
L Brands Inc Valuation – January 2019 $LB
Nike Inc Valuation – November 2018 $NKE
Deckers Outdoor Corp Valuation – May 2018 $DECK

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – March 2019 #AAP

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Advance Auto Parts, Inc., incorporated on August 1, 2001, provides automotive aftermarket parts in North America, serving do-it-for-me (Professional) and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers. The Company’s stores and branches offer a selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. The Company serves its Professional and DIY customers through various channels ranging from traditional brick and mortar store locations to self-serving e-commerce sites. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated 5,062 total stores and 127 branches primarily under the trade names Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, Carquest and Worldpac. As of December 31, 2016, the Company’s Advance Auto Parts operations consisted of three geographic divisions, which included the operations of the stores operating under the Advance Auto Parts, Carquest and Autopart International trade names. The Company’s e-commerce platforms, primarily consisting of its online Websites and Professional ordering platforms, are part of its integrated operating approach of serving its Professional and DIY customers. The Company’s online Websites allow its DIY customers to pick up merchandise at a store or have their purchases shipped directly to them. The majority of the Company’s online DIY sales are picked up at store locations. Through the Company’s online ordering platforms, Professional customers can place orders with a designated store location for delivery to their places of business or pick-up.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAP – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $12,221,885,012 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.57 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 39.57% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 25.61 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.52 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.57 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.48 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $6.66
MG Growth Estimate 1.58%
MG Value $77.67
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $96.55
MG Value based on 0% Growth $56.60
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.56%
Current Price $170.53
% of Intrinsic Value 219.56%

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.02 in 2015 to an estimated $6.66 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.56% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Advance Auto Parts, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $92.34. The company pays a dividend of $0.24 per share, for a yield of 0.1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 25.61, which was above the industry average of 22.49. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $8.08.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $8.08
Graham Number $92.34
PEmg 25.61
Current Ratio 1.57
PB Ratio 3.52
Current Dividend $0.24
Dividend Yield 0.14%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $6,082,454,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,885,950,000
Long-Term Debt $1,045,720,000
Total Assets $9,040,648,000
Intangible Assets $1,540,830,000
Total Liabilities $5,489,835,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 73,328,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.78
Dec2018 $5.73
Dec2017 $6.42
Dec2016 $6.20
Dec2015 $6.40
Dec2014 $6.71
Dec2013 $5.32
Dec2012 $5.22
Dec2011 $5.11
Dec2010 $3.95
Dec2009 $2.83
Dec2008 $2.49
Dec2007 $2.28
Dec2006 $2.16
Dec2005 $2.13
Dec2004 $1.66
Dec2003 $1.11
Dec2002 $0.60
Dec2001 $0.13
Dec2000 $0.23
Dec1999 -$0.30

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.66
Dec2018 $6.16
Dec2017 $6.32
Dec2016 $6.17
Dec2015 $6.02
Dec2014 $5.64
Dec2013 $4.90
Dec2012 $4.44
Dec2011 $3.81
Dec2010 $3.02
Dec2009 $2.49
Dec2008 $2.26
Dec2007 $2.06
Dec2006 $1.81
Dec2005 $1.46
Dec2004 $1.00
Dec2003 $0.57

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – June 2018 $AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – August 2017 $AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – November 2016 $AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $AAP

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

LKQ Corp Valuation – March 2019 #LKQ
Aptiv PLC Valuation – March 2019 #APTV
Paccar Inc Valuation – March 2019 #PCAR
BorgWarner Inc Valuation – February 2019 $BWA
CarMax Inc Valuation – February 2019 $KMX
Ford Motor Co Valuation – February 2019 $F
General Motors Co Valuation – February 2019 $GM
O’Reilly Automotive Inc Valuation – February 2019 $ORLY
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co Valuation – January 2019 $GT
Genuine Parts Co Valuation – January 2019 $GPC

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Skyworks Solutions Inc Valuation – March 2019 #SWKS

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Skyworks Solutions Inc., incorporated on June 10, 2002, designs, develops, manufactures and markets semiconductor products, including intellectual property. The Company’s analog semiconductors connect people, places, and things, spanning various unimagined applications within the automotive, broadband, cellular infrastructure, connected home, industrial, medical, military, smartphone, tablet and wearable markets. The Company’s geographical segments include the United States, Other Americas, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Other Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa. The Company operates throughout the world with engineering, manufacturing, sales and service facilities throughout Asia, Europe and North America. The Company is engaged with key original equipment manufacturers (OEM), smartphone providers and baseband reference design partners. The Company’s plants are located in Mexico, Singapore, the United States, Japan, and Rest of world. The Company offers its technology from the smartphones to the factory floor to hospitals and medical providers to the automated home, connected car, and wearables. Skyworks is enabling opportunities with solutions supporting a set of wireless protocols, including cellular long-term evolution (LTE), wireless fidelity (Wi-Fi), Bluetooth, Zigbee and emerging fifth generation (5G) standards.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of SWKS – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $14,356,881,784 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 6.18 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 460.20% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.02 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.63 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 6.18 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.49
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $211.44
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $79.63
MG Value based on 0% Growth $46.68
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.26%
Current Price $82.48
% of Intrinsic Value 39.01%

Skyworks Solutions Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.51 in 2015 to an estimated $5.49 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.26% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Skyworks Solutions Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $57.35. The company pays a dividend of $1.34 per share, for a yield of 1.6% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 15.02, which was below the industry average of 35.5, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $8.49.

Skyworks Solutions Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $8.49
Graham Number $57.35
PEmg 15.02
Current Ratio 6.18
PB Ratio 3.63
Current Dividend $1.34
Dividend Yield 1.62%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

 

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $2,208,500,000
Total Current Liabilities $357,300,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $4,738,900,000
Intangible Assets $1,319,900,000
Total Liabilities $700,600,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 177,700,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.33
Sep2018 $5.01
Sep2017 $5.41
Sep2016 $5.18
Sep2015 $4.10
Sep2014 $2.38
Sep2013 $1.45
Sep2012 $1.05
Sep2011 $1.19
Sep2010 $0.75
Sep2009 $0.56
Sep2008 $0.68
Sep2007 $0.36
Sep2006 -$0.55
Sep2005 $0.16
Sep2004 $0.15
Sep2003 -$3.24
Mar2002 -$0.42
Mar2001 $0.75
Mar2000 $0.21
Mar1999 $0.27

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.49
Sep2018 $4.85
Sep2017 $4.42
Sep2016 $3.56
Sep2015 $2.51
Sep2014 $1.60
Sep2013 $1.14
Sep2012 $0.94
Sep2011 $0.82
Sep2010 $0.55
Sep2009 $0.38
Sep2008 $0.24
Sep2007 -$0.19
Sep2006 -$0.57
Sep2005 -$0.56
Sep2004 -$0.78
Sep2003 -$1.00

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Skyworks Solutions Inc Valuation – June 2018 $SWKS
Skyworks Solutions Inc Valuation – April 2017 $SWKS
21 Best Undervalued Stocks of the Week – 8/27/16
Skyworks Solutions Inc Valuation – August 2016 $SWKS
Skyworks Solutions Inc Stock Valuation – February 2016 $SWKS

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Garmin Ltd Valuation – March 2019 #GRMN
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co Valuation – March 2019 #HPE
Fortive Corp Valuation – March 2019 #FTV
Analog Devices Inc Valuation – March 2019 #ADI
IPG Photonics Corp Valuation – March 2019 #IPGP
Micron Technology Inc Valuation – March 2019 #MU
Amphenol Corp Valuation – March 2019 #APH
Xilinx Inc Valuation – March 2019 #XLNX
Western Digital Corp Valuation – March 2019 #WDC
Texas Instruments Inc Valuation – March 2019 #TXN

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Anadarko Petroleum Corp Valuation – March 2019 #APC

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (Anadarko), incorporated on June 12, 1985, is an independent exploration and production company. The Company is engaged in developing, acquiring, and exploring for oil and natural-gas resources. The Company’s segments include Oil and Gas Exploration and Production; Midstream, and Marketing. The Company’s geographical segments include the United States and International. The Oil and Gas Exploration and Production segment explores for and produces oil, condensate, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs), and focuses on the development and operation of the Company’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Mozambique. The Midstream segment engages in gathering, processing, treating and transporting Anadarko and third-party oil, natural-gas and NGLs production. The Marketing segment sells Anadarko’s oil, natural-gas and NGLs production, as well as third-party purchased volumes. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had approximately 1.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) of proved reserves.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of APC – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $22,116,234,175 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.81 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -160.64% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -24.30 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.00 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.81 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -17.93 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$1.82
MG Growth Estimate 9.22%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$26.42
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$15.49
Market Implied Growth Rate -16.40%
Current Price $44.27
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-4.73 in 2015 to an estimated $-1.82 for 2019. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Anadarko Petroleum Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $1.05 per share, for a yield of 2.4%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -24.3, which was below the industry average of 58.42, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-51.79.

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$51.79
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg -24.30
Current Ratio 0.81
PB Ratio 2.00
Current Dividend $1.05
Dividend Yield 2.37%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $3,795,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $4,658,000,000
Long-Term Debt $15,470,000,000
Total Assets $40,376,000,000
Intangible Assets $5,630,000,000
Total Liabilities $29,433,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 495,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.92
Dec2018 $1.20
Dec2017 -$0.85
Dec2016 -$5.90
Dec2015 -$13.18
Dec2014 -$3.47
Dec2013 $1.58
Dec2012 $4.74
Dec2011 -$5.32
Dec2010 $1.52
Dec2009 -$0.28
Dec2008 $6.91
Dec2007 $8.08
Dec2006 $10.24
Dec2005 $2.45
Dec2004 $1.59
Dec2003 $2.55
Dec2002 $0.81
Dec2001 -$0.38
Dec2000 $2.08
Dec1999 $0.06

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$1.82
Dec2018 -$3.00
Dec2017 -$4.85
Dec2016 -$5.65
Dec2015 -$4.73
Dec2014 -$0.40
Dec2013 $0.91
Dec2012 $0.89
Dec2011 $0.04
Dec2010 $3.57
Dec2009 $4.89
Dec2008 $6.94
Dec2007 $6.30
Dec2006 $4.78
Dec2005 $1.83
Dec2004 $1.46
Dec2003 $1.27

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Anadarko Petroleum Corp Valuation – June 2018 $APC
Anadarko Petroleum Co Valuation – April 2017 $APC
Anadarko Petroleum Corp Valuation – January 2016 Update $APC
32 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/6/14
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $APC

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Cabot Oil & Gas Corp Valuation – March 2019 #COG
Concho Resources Inc Valuation – March 2019 #CXO
Valero Energy Corp Valuation – March 2019 #VLO
Occidental Petroleum Corp Valuation – March 2019 #OXY
Phillips 66 Valuation – March 2019 #PSX
Halliburton Co Valuation – March 2019 #HAL
Kinder Morgan Inc Valuation – February 2019 $KMI
National Oilwell Varco Inc Valuation – February 2019 $NOV
Diamondback Energy Inc Valuation – February 2019 $FANG
TechnipFMC PLC Valuation – February 2019 $FTI

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Back To Top